'Who will win the presidential election?' Guess right and get $1… Investors gone crazy for this stock [Stock+]

Wall Street investors flock to 'Polymarket IPO' bets

NYSE parent ICE invests $2 billion

Polymarket valued at $9 billion

Trading also begins on private share platforms

"I think I could get about 70% returns."

"The parent company of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) invested—won't they IPO soon?"

On the 19th (local time), Wall Street IB industry sources said that recently among Wall Street investors there has been an explosive increase in people betting on the possibility of an initial public offering (IPO) by the world's largest cryptocurrency-based betting site, Polymarket.

Polymarket is a platform that uses cryptocurrency to predict the outcomes of future events. For questions like 'Will the U.S. central bank (Fed) cut interest rates?' or 'Who will win the next presidential election?', users trade 'yes' and 'no' shares. Share prices move between $0 and $1, and that price itself shows the 'probability of occurrence' as seen by market participants in real time. If the result is correct, you receive $1; if incorrect, it becomes $0. Besides Fed rate decisions and presidential elections, you can bet on most things of public interest such as sports results, elections, and wars.

ICE $2 billion investment

Attention to the possibility of a Polymarket listing began when Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, announced on the 7th that it had acquired a stake in Polymarket worth about $2 billion. This transaction valued Polymarket at about $8–9 billion. ICE's stock rose more than 5% in premarket trading immediately after the announcement.

On Wall Street, attention is focused on the fact that mainstream financial institutions like ICE participated directly. As speculation that "Polymarket will list on the New York Stock Exchange" spread rapidly, related transactions also increased on private share platforms.

Already trading on private share platforms

Private share platforms such as Forge Global, EquityZen, and Hiive have already listed Polymarket shares on their own listings and are connecting investors who wish to buy and sell. These platforms are quoting prices based on the valuation of about $9 billion after ICE's acquisition of roughly $2 billion worth of Polymarket shares.

A New York venture investor said, "The market sentiment has completely changed just because ICE came in," adding, "Polymarket is no longer just a cryptocurrency site; its status has changed to a 'legitimate prediction market recognized by Wall Street.'"

As a legitimate platform

In 2022 Polymarket was hit with a $1.4 million fine by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for "operating an unregistered derivatives exchange" and blocked from access by U.S. users. However, in July 2025 Polymarket reversed the situation by acquiring the derivatives exchange QCEX, which holds a CFTC license, for $112 million. Afterwards, when the CFTC effectively approved Polymarket's U.S. services in September–October, the platform re-entered the U.S. market legally.

U.S. users can now officially access the site, and Polymarket offers four types of prediction contracts—'election winners,' sports, interest rates, and wars—in a self-certified form through the QCEX license.

Valuation surged 7-fold in a year

The valuation, which was about $350 million in early 2024, rose to $1.2 billion following an early-2025 funding that included Founders Fund, and approached $9 billion with ICE's participation in October. In just one year it increased more than seven times. On Wall Street, this is seen as a 'symbol of explosive value growth' tied to reentry into the U.S. market and ICE's institutional-level credibility.

Shane Koplan, Polymarket CEO, said on the 7th, "If ICE's institutional scale and credibility combine with Polymarket's consumer understanding, it will become the world's top prediction platform."

New York = Shin-young Park, correspondent nyusos@hankyung.com