Bitcoin expected to continue 'ping-pong' action ahead of FOMC and U.S.-China summit

Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading sideways after failing to break the $116,000 resistance level. Market experts say that this week's U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) interest-rate decision and the outcome of a U.S.-China trade agreement are key variables that will determine short-term price direction.

According to Cointelegraph on the 29th (local time), Bitcoin has rebounded about 13% since the large-scale liquidations on the 10th, but technical analysis suggests that a sustained daily close above $116,000 is required for a full bullish reversal. TRDR data show that most recent rebound attempts met resistance at $116,000, and sell walls formed in the Binance and Coinbase order books at around $117,000–$118,000.

In the futures market, short-position liquidations continue. Some $49,830,000 worth of short positions were liquidated in the past 12 hours, and global exchanges' open interest recovered from $28,110,000,000 on Oct. 11 to $31,480,000,000. However, that is still below the $40,390,000,000 recorded when Bitcoin was trading at $124,600.

Spot-based Bitcoin ETFs have also seen improved fund flows. A net inflow of $260,230,000 occurred over the past three trading days, and $477,000,000 flowed in on Oct. 21. This suggests that institutional buying resumed after Bitcoin fell below $108,000.

However, Hyblock data show institutional and large investors (in the $1,000,000–$10,000,000 range) take profits on rallies, while small retail investors (in the $1,000–$10,000 range) buy the dip. Order-book ratios also favor selling, and Binance shows an increase in small long positions, suggesting heightened short-term volatility.

With the FOMC rate announcement scheduled for the 30th, position adjustments are underway. The prevailing view is that the Fed will cut the benchmark rate by 0.25%, and volatility is likely to increase around the announcement.

Additionally, the meeting on the 31st between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping is cited as another risk factor. If talks break down or the market accepts a trade agreement that falls short of expectations, it could negatively affect stocks and digital-asset (crypto) markets more broadly. As a result, analysts largely expect Bitcoin to continue a 'ping-pong' trading range between the $110,000 support level and the $116,000 resistance level in the short term.