Despite Growing Expectations for Bitcoin Price Hikes Fears of 'Large-Scale Dumping' in Bear Markets Emerge Possible Negative Impact on Government Adoption Global publicly listed companies are aggressively accumulating Bitcoin (BTC), fueling expectations of further price increases. However, some warn that corporate-led hoarding could destabilize the market. On the 26th (local time), Metaplanet, dubbed the 'Strategy' of Japan, announced via disclosure that “We have purchased an additional 1,234 Bitcoins, bringing our total holdings to 12,345 BTC.” It has secured a volume equivalent to No. 1 in Asia and No. 7 globally within just 1 year and 2 months since it unveiled its Bitcoin accumulation strategy in April of last year. Investors cheered Metaplanet’s aggressive Bitcoin accumulation, and as bullish expectations for Bitcoin price grew, its stock price soared approximately 2,400% over the past year, and the premium for its Bitcoin holdings has surged to $550,000, five times the current market price. Strategy, a pioneer in institutional Bitcoin accumulation, is also continuing aggressive purchasing. In the past month alone, it accumulated a staggering 12,095 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 592,345 BTC (about 2.82% of total supply). The company also revealed plans to raise funds to purchase an additional $21 billion worth of Bitcoin in its Q1 earnings announcement. Other companies such as ProCapBTC and Green Minerals have also announced plans to accumulate more than $1 billion worth of Bitcoin, joining the wave of accumulation. According to BitcoinTreasury, listed companies’ Bitcoin holdings, which stood at around 600,000 earlier this year, have increased by over 250,000 in just six months, reaching 840,884 at present. Prominent Bitcoin maximalist Brad Mills asserted, “We are at the beginning of the SaylorCycle. Driven by corporate demand, Bitcoin could rise 100-fold within the next 20 years.” Nevertheless, concerns about these corporate accumulation trends have been raised. Max Keiser, Bitcoin advisor to the El Salvador government, said, “The companies participating in Bitcoin accumulation this cycle have never experienced a bear market. You can't assume they won’t sell Bitcoin in a downturn like Strategy did.” Back in the 2022 bear market, even though Strategy posted over $1 billion in losses due to the drop in Bitcoin price, it continued to steadily buy Bitcoin by raising additional funds. Saifedean Ammous, author of 'The Bitcoin Standard,' also warned, “Despite growing waves of corporate buying, Bitcoin can still drop as much as 80% from previous highs. If a company’s business model cannot withstand an 80% drop, now is the time to restructure their financials.” Large-Scale Dumping Possible If Bear Market Persists Experts expressing concerns point out that most companies accumulating Bitcoin are buying with debt rather than cash. Strategy, the No. 1 corporate Bitcoin holder, has used large convertible bond and preferred stock programs to amass its holdings. Metaplanet and 21Capital, which have started accumulating more recently, use similar methods. Thus, should these companies come under financial pressure during a downturn, a large-scale sell-off to repay obligations could occur. Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase evaluated in a report, "Corporate Bitcoin accumulation is a short-term bullish driver but in the long run could pose significant risks to the overall digital asset ecosystem." It continued, “If Bitcoin price falls, companies will have no choice but to sell Bitcoin to pay back debt. If multiple companies sell simultaneously, it could trigger massive liquidations on futures markets and a broader wave of selling across digital assets.” Standard Chartered (SC) also voiced concerns in its report. The report stated, “Considering past cases like mining company Core Scientific, there is a high likelihood of dumping if Bitcoin falls more than 22% below corporate average purchase prices.” In fact, during the 2022 bear market, Core Scientific, under severe financial strain, sold its 7,202 Bitcoin holdings for $167 million. Although the price then was 22% below mining costs, once losses were realized, all creditors halted additional funding and forced a dump. Over the following month, Bitcoin fell about 44%. The report added, “If Bitcoin drops below $90,000, over half of the companies currently holding Bitcoin would enter loss territory, significantly raising the likelihood of further sell-offs.” Growing Corporate Holdings Could Hamper National-Level Bitcoin Adoption Concerns have also been raised that if corporate Bitcoin holdings keep increasing, governments and central banks may become hesitant to adopt Bitcoin as a reserve asset. Swiss bank Sygnum warned in a report, “If any asset becomes concentrated in the hands of certain entities, its profile as a safe haven is undermined. Excessive hoarding by private companies could negatively influence governments’ willingness to adopt Bitcoin as a reserve asset.” Although listed companies collectively hold about 4% of the total Bitcoin supply, their share of actively circulating coins is much higher, potentially intensifying perceived risks for governments. It further stated, “Governments and central banks assess low volatility and high liquidity as key prerequisites for reserve assets. If companies use excessive leverage to accumulate Bitcoin, circulating supply shrinks and liquidity decreases while volatility increases, detracting from Bitcoin’s appeal as a reserve asset.”
June 26PiCK