Minseung Kang

Bitcoin (BTC) temporarily recovered to the $88,000 level. As of 23:23 on the 2nd, Bitcoin is trading at $88,591 on the Binance USDT market (based on Upbit: 132,600,000 won). It is up 2.9% from the previous day. Meanwhile, according to crypto asset data platform Cryprice, Bitcoin's kimchi premium was recorded at 1.84% on the day.

The first exchange-traded fund (ETF) tracking the price of Chainlink (LINK) has begun trading on the New York Stock Exchange. On the 2nd, according to crypto-focused media The Block, Grayscale Investments listed the 'Grayscale Chainlink Trust ETF (GLNK)' on NYSE Arca. The product converted the previously private 'Grayscale Chainlink Trust' into an ETF, with assets under management (AUM) of about $17 million. Ingu Kang, Grayscale's senior vice president in charge of ETFs, said, "Chainlink plays a key infrastructure role in linking data between blockchains and in tokenization and decentralized finance (DeFi)," adding, "Through GLNK, investors can easily access this in ETF form." Chainlink is an oracle network that connects blockchains to external data and payment systems, and is widely used by governments, institutions, and DeFi protocols. The outlet reported, "With the spread of tokenization and DeFi, demand for Chainlink is growing in the processes of creation, valuation, and settlement of on-chain assets." Meanwhile, Grayscale has recently launched ETFs tracking XRP, Dogecoin (DOGE), and Solana (SOL), in addition to Chainlink, over the past few weeks.

As the downturn in the virtual asset (cryptocurrency) market deepens, reports say voices of concern are growing among investors about the possibility of a new 'crypto winter'. According to The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) on the 2nd, Bitcoin and major digital assets have recently been under downward pressure along with weakness in risk assets overall. In recent months, zero-yield tech stocks, loss-making startups, and meme-theme stocks have been rapidly shunned by the market, strengthening risk-off sentiment, and virtual assets are said to be facing the same selling pressure. Bitcoin is trading at a price about 30% below this year's high. Patrick Hossman, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of B&B Plus, said, "Investors are reducing risk exposure as they view the market and economic outlook pessimistically," adding, "A move in which Bitcoin retreats to around $60,000 cannot be ruled out. I do not yet see the pain as over." The WSJ noted that the virtual asset market has repeatedly experienced strong rebounds and sharp price collapses since its early days. In past 'crypto winters', Bitcoin and major tokens fell by as much as nearly 80% before rebounds, and such down cycles have been accompanied by investor morale and fraud issues, the report said. However, it analyzed that this selling phase also differs from the past in some aspects. Large exchange bankruptcy events like Mt. Gox or FTX do not exist at present, making it difficult to determine market direction.

In the Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) sector, where companies stockpile crypto assets such as Bitcoin (BTC) as a financial strategy, inflows have sharply declined. Analysts say liquidity pressure is increasing across corporate coin-holding structures. On the 2nd, crypto asset media BeInCrypto reported that recent DAT inflows were about $1.32 billion, a 90% decrease from July, marking the year's low. DeFi dashboard DeFiLlama assessed that "the pace of digital asset accumulation by corporate treasuries has effectively come to a halt." The valuation of corporate DAT positions (mNAV) is also weakening. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) holds about $48.4 billion, Bitmain $10.6 billion, and Marathon Digital $4.5 billion, but recent market adjustments are putting downward pressure on both realized and valuation values. Market data platform DropsTab analyzed that "tokens associated with DAT showed the weakest flows among tokenized stock asset groups last month." It explained that investor sentiment toward the DAT strategy itself is contracting.

Large holder wallets on the XRP Ledger (XRPL) have rapidly decreased. Meanwhile, the cumulative holdings of the remaining top wallet group rose to a seven-year high, suggesting the supply structure is being reorganized. On the 2nd, on-chain analytics firm Santiment said that over the past 8 weeks the number of whale and shark wallets holding more than 100 million XRP on the XRPL decreased by 20.6%. About 569 wallets disappeared during that period, showing the fastest contraction in recent years. By contrast, the total holdings of the remaining large holder wallets increased to about 48 billion XRP, marking the highest level in seven years since the end of 2018. Santiment explained, 'It appears that the top address cohort is absorbing the entire sell volume.' The media reported, 'On-chain, mid-sized wallet addresses (1 million–10 million XRP) are estimated to have sold more than 2.2 billion XRP last month,' and added, 'there are indications that some institutional demand has flowed in following the listing of a spot XRP ETF in the United States.'

Grayscale listing first day Net inflow '0 dollars' — a dismal result Meme coin investor sentiment sharply contracted The U.S. first Dogecoin spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) recorded a major flop, and Dogecoin's price is testing the key support level of $0.14. Experts say that with investor sentiment toward meme coins sharply weakened, volatility across the altcoin market could expand. On the 2nd, the crypto industry reported that Grayscale's recently launched Dogecoin spot ETF posted a net inflow of '0 dollars' on its first day of listing, a poor result. Cumulative net inflows in the first week since launch amounted to about $2.16 million (about 3.1 billion won), far below Bloomberg Intelligence's estimated $12 million. This contrasts with the early success of previously launched products like Bitwise's Solana ETF or Grayscale's XRPL ETF. The market analyzes that the lack of ETF demand stems from major meme coins such as Shiba Inu and Pepe losing momentum, having fallen 50~70% or more compared to the start of the year. Altcoin Vector diagnosed that "meme coins that once led the market have now lost both their narrative and upward momentum." Amid ETF weakness, Dogecoin's price is also walking on thin ice. Having given back recent gains, Dogecoin is threatening the key support level of $0.14. Technical analysts pointed to the $0.14 level as a short-term watershed for direction. Alejandro Arieche, an FXPro analyst, warned, "If the $0.14 support breaks, it could fall to $0.10, resulting in about a 30% additional decline." Conversely, Ayushi Jindal, a NewsBTC researcher, projected, "If that zone is defended, it could break the $0.16 resistance and attempt rebounds to $0.17 and, in the mid term, $0.21." Looking at the broader market, a 'breather' phase is evident. While Bitcoin consolidates around the $90,000 level, the altcoin market is searching for direction and showing signs of increased volatility. Benjamin Cowen, a crypto analyst, said, "Considering Bitcoin dominance trends, altcoins are likely to remain weak for some time," adding, "volatility is likely to persist over the next 6–12 months." Macroeconomic negatives — such as concerns over unwind of yen carry trades if the Bank of Japan (BOJ) hikes rates and uncertainty over U.S. rate cuts — are also weighing on investor sentiment. Not all views are pessimistic. Analytics firms including SwissBlock noted that during recent steep Bitcoin drops, some altcoins showed relative resilience, which can be interpreted as steady accumulation happening beneath the surface. Michael van de Poppe advised, "After the introduction of spot ETFs, the crypto market has entered a complex cycle beyond the traditional 'four-year cycle.' Even if there is short-term pain, the current environment is similar to past cycle lows, so it could be a meaningful re-accumulation opportunity in the mid to long term." Kang Min-seung, BloomingBit reporter minriver@bloomingbit.io

Investor sentiment in the virtual asset (cryptocurrency) market remains in the 'fear' zone, and analysts say recent selling is unfolding differently from past correction phases. On the 2nd, Bloomberg TV reported, "The crypto fear & greed index registering 23 that day reflects an extremely contracted market sentiment," adding, "With most leveraged positions liquidated, traders are holding cash assets and waiting. The overall mood lies between bearishness and caution." The outlet pointed to a change in the way risk is transmitted as a characteristic of this decline. It explained, "In recent months, as virtual assets have been incorporated into the institutional sphere, Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) has emerged," and "This strategy involves companies pooling funds to stockpile virtual assets, and the recent price plunge has put direct pressure on these companies as well." It went on to note, "In the past, risk remained within the virtual asset market, but now, through the DAT structure, risk is spreading to a broader area," emphasizing, "This correction is transmitting strain to traditional markets via investment instruments." Regarding flows into virtual asset investment products, the outlet said, "Some single-stock ETFs linked to specific strategies have recently posted the worst performance among all crypto-related products." It also assessed that inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have been slow and lukewarm. Meanwhile, attention was drawn to the fact that the U.S. central bank (Fed) is discussing rules related to banks and stablecoins. The outlet noted, "Regulations are not yet in effect, but they could become a major variable in the future," adding, "Many market participants are awaiting the March announcement next year."

An analysis has emerged that the altcoin (virtual assets other than Bitcoin) market could change direction depending on whether Bitcoin (BTC) recovers to $90,000. On the 2nd, crypto asset (cryptocurrency) analytics firm Swissblock said on X (formerly Twitter), "Bitcoin is adjusting from $90,000 down to the low $80,000s, and altcoins are retesting the November low," adding, "the current range is a key area that requires structural defense." Swissblock described the recent downward trend as a 'negative shock' and mentioned the possibility that altcoin volatility could expand if Bitcoin fails to recover to $90,000. Swissblock pointed out, "If downward pressure on BTC increases, a rapid decline phase could unfold across altcoins." It also said, "If Bitcoin falls below the November low of $80,500, altcoin sell-offs could intensify," and expressed the need for close observation of short-term market flows. It added, "Movements over the next few hours could determine the overall structure of altcoins."

Prices of major virtual assets (cryptocurrencies), including Bitcoin (BTC), are collectively showing weakness. Analysts say that the Bank of Japan (BOJ)'s signal of interest rate hikes and the People's Bank of China (PBOC)'s announcement of stablecoin regulations emerged simultaneously, weakening investor sentiment across global risk assets. On the 2nd, Bitcoin was trading around $86,000, continuing a weak trend. The market interprets that the possibility of changes in Japanese monetary policy and China's regulatory tightening have prompted investors to move toward risk aversion. First, concerns about a reduction in yen carry trades were highlighted as the BOJ publicly indicated the possibility of raising rates. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said at a meeting on the 1st, "We will consider whether to raise rates at the next monetary policy meeting," raising prospects that the policy rate could be raised at the meeting on the 18th–19th of this month. As the yen strengthened, observations spread that demand for risk assets formed by 'low-interest yen' could decline in global markets. Also, the actions of the People's Bank of China are cited as an additional burden. On the 29th of last month, the PBOC issued a joint statement with 13 government agencies, including the Ministry of Public Security, defining stablecoins as "illegal financial activities including risks of fraud, money laundering, and illicit capital movement." Hong Kong outlet the South China Morning Post (SCMP) evaluated it as "the first case in which China explicitly outlawed stablecoins."

Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen more than 5%, and major virtual asset (cryptocurrency) related stocks are showing concurrent weakness. On the 1st (local time), according to overseas economic breaking news channel Walter Bloomberg, Bitcoin fell 5.4%, and the U.S. virtual asset exchange Coinbase's stock also fell 5.2%. Bitcoin mining companies also showed weakness across the board. Bitfarms fell 8.3%, Riot Platforms 5.6%, Hut 8 Mining 6.3%, and MARA Holdings 7.7%. Bitcoin-linked exchange-traded products also underperformed. The ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF fell 5%, and the iShares Bitcoin Trust also fell 5%.

There were forecasts that Bitcoin (BTC) could once again reach an all-time high (ATH) by the end of January next year despite short-term correction trends. On the 1st (local time), according to crypto-focused media Bitcoin Archive, Tom Lee, chairman of BitMine, the world's largest holder of Ethereum, said, "Bitcoin can record a new all-time high by the end of January next year."

Bitmain, the world's largest holder of Ethereum (ETH), said it purchased an additional 96,798 ETH last week, bringing its cumulative holdings to more than 3.72 million. According to PR Newswire on the 1st (local time), as of the 30th of last month Bitmain holds 3,726,499 ETH (at $3,008 each), 192 Bitcoin (BTC), $882,000,000 in cash, a $36,000,000 stake in Nasdaq-listed Eitco Holdings, among other assets, totaling $12,100,000,000 in virtual assets (cryptocurrencies) and cash equivalents. The company said, "We purchased 96,798 ETH just last week." This means it holds about 3% of ETH issuance, putting it two-thirds of the way toward the company’s stated target of "5% holdings." Tom Lee, founder of Fundstrat and chairman of Bitmain, said, "This month's scheduled Ethereum 'Fusaka (Fulu-Osaka)' upgrade will significantly improve scalability, security, and usability," adding that "the end of the US central bank (Fed)'s quantitative tightening (QT) and expectations of rate cuts could also be favorable for ETH prices." He added, "After the 'large-scale liquidation' shock in the futures market last October, the market has already entered a stabilization phase for more than seven weeks."

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), which holds Bitcoin (BTC) as its primary asset, has set up a US$1.44 billion dollar reserve to secure short-term financial stability. Considering increased Bitcoin price volatility, it also adjusted its year-end performance guidance and Bitcoin-related metrics. On the 1st (local time), Strategy said, "We established a dollar (USD) reserve to stably secure the capacity to pay preferred stock dividends and debt interest," adding, "We plan to maintain a level sufficient to cover at least 12 months' worth of dividends going forward." The reserve was raised through recent sales of common stock. Michael Saylor, founder and chairman of Strategy, said, "This is a step to create a cash-based buffer separate from the Bitcoin reserve," calling it "a measure to respond to short-term market volatility." As Bitcoin's price correction continued, the company lowered its year-end Bitcoin assumption from $150,000 to a range of $85,000–$110,000. Accordingly, forecasts for operating income, net income, and earnings per share (EPS) were adjusted by the same magnitude.

The bearish trend in the crypto asset (cryptocurrency) market continues, but analysis shows that the business fundamentals of major operating companies are rather strengthening. On the 1st (local time), according to crypto-focused media The Block, research and brokerage firm Bernstein said, "Bitcoin (BTC) showed a retracement from the $82,000 range to $92,000 and then adjusted back to the mid-$80,000s, so a clear bottom signal has not been confirmed," but added, "unlike past down cycles, this correction is characterized by the strong earnings fundamentals of key operating companies." Bernstein analyst Gautam Chugani said, "The bearish sentiment is reflected in the stock prices of related companies such as Coinbase, Circle, and Robinhood, but excessive speculative funds in the market are mainly concentrated in small altcoins or similar projects," and "no risk signals have been detected that would threaten the sustainability of major infrastructure companies." Bernstein analyzed that operational performance across the industry is expanding, contrary to market prices. As regulatory uncertainty is resolved, companies are diversifying their businesses away from fee-dependent trading models into new revenue sources such as capital markets, asset tokenization, and consumer applications. For example, Coinbase is pursuing a strategy to integrate cryptocurrency trading, tokenized stocks, prediction markets, and consumer payments into a single platform. Bernstein predicted, "In the medium to long term, Coinbase and Robinhood are highly likely to form a competitive dynamic in the multi-asset financial platform space." The report diagnosed, "Although the price correction phase continues, operating companies are executing structural transitions in line with a stabilizing regulatory environment," and "this correction could become a long-term growth opportunity for the industry."

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) said it recently purchased an additional 130 Bitcoin (BTC) for about $11.7 million. On the 1st (local time), Michael Saylor, founder and chairman of Strategy, said on X (formerly Twitter), "Strategy purchased 130 Bitcoin from the 17th to the 30th of last month at about $89,960 each," and "As of November 30, the company holds a total of 650,000 BTC." Meanwhile, the aggregate purchase price per Bitcoin acquired by Strategy to date is about $74,436, and the total acquisition amount is about $48.38 billion.

Bitcoin (BTC) temporarily surrendered $85,000. BTC price, as of 21:50 on the 1st based on the Binance USDT market, is trading at $85,352 (₩127,520,000 on the Upbit exchange), down 6.55% from the previous day. Meanwhile, according to Cryprice, the Kimchi premium for major virtual assets (cryptocurrencies) including Bitcoin (BTC) recorded 1.78%.

An analysis has been raised that if Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were slightly included in the management of foreign exchange reserves, one could expect an improvement in returns similar to significantly increasing the equity allocation. On the 1st (local time), according to crypto-asset specialist media UBlockchain, Aleš Michl, Governor of the Czech National Bank, said, "If about 2.5% of reserves were allocated to a Bitcoin ETF, you could obtain an expected return similar to expanding the U.S. stock allocation from 38% to 50%," adding, "and the additional volatility is less." He went on to explain, "If 5% of reserves had been allocated to BTC over the past 10 years, the annual average return would have been about 3.5% percentage points higher," but "overall portfolio volatility would have nearly doubled."