Suehyeon Lee

XRP (XRP) was briefly pushed below $2, reinforcing technical bearish signals, and the short-term direction now depends on whether it breaks out of the $2.00~$2.07 range. On the 2nd (local time), CoinDesk said, "XRP temporarily fell below $2.00, showing a clear weakening of the trend. Volume surged during the decline, confirming that active selling, not merely a lack of liquidity, pulled the price down." It added, "Meanwhile, the $2.05~$2.07 zone acted as strong resistance throughout the day, stopping all rebound attempts. Failure to break this zone has been the factor keeping it trapped in a narrow box around $2.02." However, signs of weakening selling pressure have also appeared. It did not continue to fall below $1.99, and repeated demand has flowed in the early $2.00 range, forming a short-term bottom demand area. As a result, analysts say a typical 'two-way pivot' structure is appearing. CoinDesk analyzed, "Technically, reclaiming $2.05 would open the possibility of a short-term trend reversal and resumption of gains, while if $2.00 breaks, the decline could extend to $1.95 and further to $1.90."

Bitcoin (BTC) traders appear to be strengthening defensive positions, such as increasing purchases of put options, in preparation for the possibility of dipping below $80,000 in early in the new year. On the 2nd (local time), according to CoinDesk, Nick Foster, co-founder of Derive, said, "Option skew is clearly falling, and in the December 26 expiry range, open interest in puts is concentrated particularly at the 84k·80k strikes." He analyzed, "This positioning means the market views the possibility that BTC will fall below $80,000 in early 2026 as meaningful." Bitcoin is currently trading around $87,000, which is about 30% lower than the peak recorded on October 8 (in the $126,000 range). Foster said, "I do not see the downtrend as over," adding, "a backwardation structure—short-term volatility higher than long-term volatility—has emerged, so there is a high likelihood that large volatility will be reflected in prices over the year-end to new-year period."

Ahead of a December rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), Bitcoin (BTC) investors are expecting a resumption of the risk-asset rally, but analysis shows that the bond and foreign-exchange markets are pointing in a completely different direction. On the 2nd (local time), CoinDesk reported, "The Fed is expected to cut the policy rate by 25bp on December 10 to the 3.5~3.75% range, and normally expectations of a rate cut lower U.S. Treasury yields and weaken the dollar, creating a favorable environment for risk assets including Bitcoin. However, recently the bond and dollar markets have not shown these typical responses." The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains firmly in the 4% range, and has actually risen about 50bp since the first rate cut in September. The outlet diagnosed that "the United States' massive fiscal deficits, increased Treasury supply, and persistent inflation concerns are preventing yields from falling." Added to this, the possibility of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and rising Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields are strengthening global upward pressure on yields. The dollar index has also shown insensitivity to rate-cut expectations. The weakness that continued since April paused around the 96 level in September, and has since rebounded, repeatedly testing the 100 level. This is interpreted as the market having already priced in most of the easing signals and the relative resilience of the U.S. economy suppressing dollar weakness. The fact that bond yields and the dollar are not falling as much as expected suggests the past simple manual 'Fed easing → dollar weakness → strength in risk assets' may not operate. CoinDesk urged caution, saying, "Bitcoin investors need to pay closer attention to changes in the macro environment."

U.S. Ethereum (ETH) spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded net outflows of over $79 million, continuing a weak trend. On the 2nd (local time), according to TraderT, total net outflows from Ethereum spot ETFs the previous day amounted to $79.13 million. That is about KRW 116 billion. That day, BlackRock's ETHA had net inflows of $26.59 million, marking 5 trading days of consecutive inflows, but Fidelity's FETH saw $31.62 million withdrawn, and VanEck's ETHV also had net outflows of $4.03 million. In particular, $49.79 million exited Grayscale's ETHE alone, and $20.28 million also left the Mini ETF (ETH), significantly increasing the total net outflows. The remaining products had no net flows.

U.S. spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded a slight net inflow the previous day. On the 2nd (local time), according to TraderT data, the total net inflow into spot Bitcoin ETFs the previous day was $370,000. This marks four consecutive trading days of net inflows. On that day, BlackRock's IBIT saw $74,030,000 flow out, but Fidelity's FBTC recorded a $67,020,000 net inflow and ARK Invest's ARKB had a $7,380,000 inflow, largely offsetting the overall flow. Other products had no net flows.

Bitcoin (BTC) has reportedly experienced a sharp correction recently due to the possibility of a policy shift at the Bank of Japan (BOJ). On the 2nd (local time), CryptoQuant author Xwin Research Japan explained, "As observations spread that BOJ Governor Ueda could signal a possibility of a rate hike on December 1, market sentiment quickly contracted, and the yen turned strong, increasing selling pressure across global risk assets." He added, "The expectation of a policy shift around the Nagoya speech further gained prominence, causing the yen carry trade that had persisted for years to begin unwinding. In early December, in the derivatives market, funding rates rapidly turned negative, and thereafter the negative extent widened, making short positions clearly dominant. This was a factor that reinforced short-term selling." Open interest (OI) also decreased rapidly from the same time. The total OI falling from the low $3 billion range to the $2.7 billion range in two days suggests that forced liquidations and voluntary deleveraging occurred simultaneously. The author said, "The sequence 'BOJ rate-hike expectations → yen strength → carry trade liquidation → Bitcoin derivatives position unwinding' amplified downward pressure," and projected that "if the BOJ's actual rate decision is announced and uncertainty is alleviated, the market is likely to gradually move into a stabilization phase."

Analysts have suggested that the recent bitcoin price plunge has coincided with signs of a weakening political standing for U.S. President Donald Trump. On the 2nd (local time), Fortune reported that Paul Krugman, a Nobel laureate and professor at the City University of New York, wrote on his Substack, "The recent bitcoin price collapse can be seen as the dismantling of the 'Trump trade.'" Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $126,000 last month, then plunged within a month and has recently hovered around $86,000. The crypto market correction of about $1 trillion is said to have reduced the Trump family's assets by about $1 billion. Krugman noted that President Trump has long been friendly toward the cryptocurrency industry and that there are significant direct investments at the family level. He said, "Trump still seeks to reward the virtual asset industry, but his political influence is clearly weakening," and "Bitcoin's price was effectively a bet on Trumpism, and as his power waned, the price plunged."

Bitmine, which has been steadily buying Ethereum (ETH), was found to have once again made a large purchase of Ethereum. On the 2nd (local time), Lookonchain reported that Bitmine had added approximately 7080 ETH (about $19.8 million) around two hours ago. Bitmine has recently, on multiple occasions, shown large-scale ETH buying movements and is emerging as an institutional buyer. The market says this repeated buying pattern could be a positive signal for Ethereum's mid-term supply-demand improvement.

An Ethereum (ETH) whale address that has been tracked for five years appears to have moved all of its holdings to an exchange. On the 2nd (local time), according to OnChainLens, the whale deposited a total of 10,176 ETH (approximately $28.69 million) to the Kraken exchange that day. The whale has a record of withdrawing about 21,086 ETH for $7.35 million five years ago, and it is analyzed to have slowly moved its holdings to exchanges over several years in multiple transactions. Exchange deposits are typically interpreted as a sell signal, and the market is paying attention to the possibility of short-term selling pressure resulting from this large deposit.

Bitcoin (BTC) could remain in a sideways range ahead of the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), according to analysis. On the 2nd (local time), Cointelegraph analyzed, "Bitcoin is trapped in the short term between the $96,000 resistance and the $86,000~$84,000 on-chain support, and as liquidity sell pressure accumulates, a breakout to either side would inevitably increase volatility." It went on, "A pullback into the upper $80,000s could absorb downward liquidity and instead serve to reorganize the base for a rebound. Conversely, if $93,000~$96,000 are retested immediately without a separate adjustment, selling pressure may re-enter and the extent of the correction could widen." The outlet said, "With the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) scheduled for the 9th~10th, the market is becoming more cautious," adding, "Investors waiting for U.S. monetary policy signals are reducing risk exposure, so Bitcoin is likely to continue consolidating in its current range until the FOMC."

U.S. decentralized prediction market platform Kalshi has officially begun supporting the ability to tokenize and trade its event contracts on the Solana (SOL) network. On the 2nd (local time), CNBC reported that Kalshi enabled tokenization and trading of its event contracts on Solana. This allows users to place bets in the same structure as existing off-chain contracts while gaining additional anonymity and transparency of ownership transfers through on-chain trading. Institutional participation will also be strengthened. DFlow and Jupiter are participating as institutional partners, taking on the role of connecting Kalshi's off-chain order book to Solana liquidity. This is expected to improve large-order processing and cross-network liquidity efficiency.

Bitcoin (BTC) is continuing its decline, and analysis suggests the next support level is 81,700 dollars. On the 1st (local time), according to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, Bitcoin's price has fallen below key on-chain indicators such as the short-term holder cost basis (STH·90,900 dollars) and the active investor average cost (Active Investors Mean·88,100 dollars). These indicators have typically acted as short-term support levels. Glassnode presented the 'True Market Mean' as the next metric to watch. This figure is located at around 81,700 dollars and is interpreted as an on-chain based medium-term support level. Analysts say that whether the market defends this zone will likely determine short-term movement.

A key momentum indicator that gauges Bitcoin's long-term trend has issued a bearish signal, amplifying market warning signs. On the 1st (local time), Omkar Godbole, a CoinDesk analyst, said, "The monthly moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) histogram for Bitcoin (BTC) recorded its first red bar in the negative (-) area in November, confirming a bullish→bearish shift." He explained, "The monthly MACD's 'bearish crossover' has appeared alongside the start of major down cycles over the past decade," adding, "This indicator turned down in January 2022 immediately after the 2021 adjustment from about $70,000 to $50,000, and BTC's price subsequently fell below $20,000." Of course, past trends do not guarantee the future, but current market sentiment is seen as weighing toward a bearish scenario. With November's decline exceeding 17%, Godbole warned, "This signal could be the starting point of another long-term down phase," urging market caution.

Bitcoin (BTC) has continued its unabated decline, even breaking below the $86,000 level. On the 1st (Korea time), according to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin is trading at $85,854.02, down 5.56% from the previous day. On Upbit's KRW market, it is trading at ₩128,800,000, down 5.11% from the previous day. Major altcoins, including Ethereum (ETH), are also in decline. Ethereum is trading at $2,816.23, down 6.09% from the previous day according to CoinMarketCap; XRP (XRP) is trading at $2.03, down 7.51% from the previous day. Solana (SOL) is also down 7.07% from the previous day, at $126.75. This decline is analyzed to be due to growing concerns over global liquidity withdrawal as the Bank of Japan's hint at a rate hike highlighted the possibility of a reduction in yen-based carry trades. Earlier, Governor Ueda said in a speech held on the 1st in Nagoya, Aichi Prefecture, "(This month) we intend to appropriately judge whether to raise the policy rate," showing a stance that leaves open the possibility of a change in the monetary policy stance.

Bitcoin (BTC) continued its downtrend and fell below the 87,000-dollar level. On the 1st (Korea time) at 11:42 a.m., based on CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin is trading at 86,885.13 dollars, down 4.43% from the previous day. On Upbit's KRW market, it is trading at 130,299,000 won, down 4.01% from the previous day. Ethereum (ETH) is also trading at 2,855.98 dollars, down 4.76% from the previous day based on CoinMarketCap, and XRP (XRP) is down 6% from the previous day at 2.07 dollars. Solana (SOL) has also fallen more than 6% from the previous day, trading at 128.07 dollars.

Grayscale is expected to launch the first Chainlink (LINK) spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) this week. On the 1st (local time), Nate Geraci, CEO of Novadius Wealth Management, said on his X, "Grayscale appears likely to launch the world's first Chainlink (LINK) spot ETF this week." According to Geraci, Grayscale is in the process of converting its existing Chainlink private trust into an ETF form that can be traded on the public market. If the conversion is completed, it is expected to become the first Chainlink spot ETF to be approved and listed on the market.

The Ethereum (ETH)-based DeFi protocol Yeon Finance (YFI) suffered losses of about $9 million from an attack targeting the yETH liquidity pool. On the 1st (local time), according to PeckShield, the Yeon Finance exploit attacker minted virtually 'infinite' yETH tokens in a single transaction, draining the pool's assets at once. In the process, about 1000 ETH (approximately $3 million) was sent to Tornado Cash, and the attacker address (0xa80d…c822) is currently understood to hold about $6 million worth of crypto assets. The incident is analyzed as an exploitation of a vulnerability targeting several Ethereum-based LST (liquid staking tokens) contained in the yETH pool. Yeon Finance stated that "V2 and V3 vaults were not affected," but the attack has renewed concerns about security vulnerabilities across DeFi as a whole.

The virtual asset (cryptocurrency) market plunged again from the early hours of the first trading day of December, continuing a bearish trend. On the 1st (local time), CoinDesk reported that Bitcoin (BTC) fell more than 3% to around $87,000. Ethereum (ETH) dropped nearly 5%, and Solana (SOL), Dogecoin (DOGE), and Ripple (XRP) also recorded declines of more than 4%. CoinDesk analyzed that this decline accelerated immediately after the exploit incident of the Ethereum-based DeFi protocol Yearn Finance (YFI). The exploit attacker reportedly minted a large amount of yETH in a single transaction to drain the pool and transferred about 1,000 ETH (about $3 million) through Tornado Cash. Amid the sudden increase in volatility, leverage positions were liquidated in a cascade, and CoinGlass estimated that about $400 million worth of futures positions (mostly long) were liquidated within an hour. Meanwhile, Bitcoin fell 17.5% in November alone, marking the largest monthly drop since March this year. Ethereum also slid 22%, posting its worst performance since February. At the same time, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows of $3.48 billion during November, significantly weakening institutional demand. Ethereum spot ETFs also recorded a record net outflow of $1.42 billion.