PiCK

Bitcoin futures positions flip… “Possible rebound to $85,000”

Suehyeon Lee

Summary

According to the CFTC COT report, non-commercial Bitcoin futures traders’ net position shifted from net short to net-long-dominant territory, indicating a detected futures-market positioning shift.
It said that if Bitcoin holds the 200-week EMA (about $68,350), a scenario is being discussed in which it could recover to the 100-week EMA (about $85,000).
However, it also noted that—like in 2022—there is the possibility of an additional drop of about 40% if the 200-week EMA breaks, alongside a potential bottom in the $40,000–$50,000 range.

Expectations for a short-term rebound in Bitcoin are resurfacing as a shift in so-called “smart money” positioning has been detected in the BTC futures market.

According to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)’s Commitments of Traders (COT) report cited by Cointelegraph on the 22nd (local time), non-commercial Bitcoin futures traders’ net position changed from about +1,000 contracts a month ago to around -1,600 contracts recently. This suggests that large speculative players such as hedge funds have rapidly covered net short positions and moved into territory where net longs dominate.

Market analyst Tom McClellan said, “Such a sharp reduction in net shorts resembles past phases when Bitcoin formed a bottom,” adding, “In April 2025 and in 2023 as well, after large investors’ positions similarly flipped in the CME futures market, rallies of about 70% and 190%, respectively, followed.”

Technical indicators also support the rebound case. Bitcoin is currently defending the area around $68,350, its 200-week exponential moving average (EMA). In past major downcycles in 2015, 2018, and 2020, this zone served as a long-term bottom. The weekly relative strength index (RSI) is also in oversold territory, raising the possibility that selling pressure is being exhausted. If a rebound off the 200-week EMA is confirmed, a recovery scenario up to around $85,000—where the 100-week EMA sits—is being discussed.

Still, some caution that it is too early to conclude a bullish turn. McClellan stressed that “smart money’s position changes are closer to conditions than signals.” In 2022, a similar oversold setup was followed by a break below the 200-week EMA and an additional 40% drop.

If a pullback of the same magnitude is repeated, Bitcoin could slide to around $40,000. Some analytics firms, citing the four-year cycle, see the $40,000–$50,000 range as a potential bottom. With futures positioning shifting and the defense of long-term moving averages converging, the market’s next direction will likely hinge on whether the 200-week EMA support holds.

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