Well-known Polymarket trader bets on Fed 50bp rate cut outlook

A well-known Polymarket trader has reportedly bet on a 50bp cut to the benchmark interest rate in September.

On the 10th (local time), CoinDesk reported that Polymarket's well-known investor JustWakingUp had bet $15,000 on a 50bp benchmark rate cut in September. JustWakingUp is a well-known investor whose cumulative trading volume on Polymarket reaches $400 million and who has already earned more than $2 million in profits.

He is currently recording an unrealized profit of 3% on the position. If the Fed actually cuts rates by 50bp, it is expected to yield more than $226,000 in profit.

The outlet also expressed expectations of a rate cut. The outlet said, "After the recent revised employment data from the U.S. Department of Labor, the possibility of a Fed 'big cut' has increased," and added, "BlackRock and Standard Chartered also expect a 50bp cut in the benchmark rate." Earlier, the Department of Labor revised its figures to say that nonfarm payroll increases since April last year were 911,000 fewer than previously reported.

Meanwhile, rate cuts tend to expand market liquidity and act as a positive factor for risk asset markets. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch, the probability of a 50bp rate cut is 8.2%.