JOON HYOUNG LEE

Crypto Now Failed to break above the key resistance level of $73,000 In the 'Extreme Fear' zone so far this month Bitcoin, which had been swinging on spillovers from Iran-linked tensions in the Middle East, is now moving sideways around $70,000. The market is increasingly looking to the second half of the year for a more meaningful rebound. According to CoinMarketCap on the 15th, Bitcoin climbed this week from the mid-$60,000 range to the low-$70,000s, then continued to trade in a sideways pattern. Expectations that the Iran war could end early are seen as having provided upside momentum. In Korea, it is trading around 100 million won. Bitcoin briefly reached $73,000—seen as a key resistance level—on the 13th before quickly retreating. Alternative.me shows the crypto Fear & Greed Index has remained in the 'Extreme Fear' zone so far this month. On-chain analytics firm Glassnode said, "Bitcoin’s attempts to break above $70,000 have repeatedly failed," adding that "geopolitical uncertainty is amplifying downside risks." Rising global oil prices are also cited as a factor increasing downward pressure on Bitcoin. Higher oil prices are stoking concerns over inflation and delayed rate cuts, weighing on risk appetite for Bitcoin, a risk asset. Oil has recently moved back above $100 a barrel despite the International Energy Agency (IEA) deciding on a large release from strategic petroleum reserves. Experts say such releases alone are likely to be insufficient to fully offset supply shortfalls stemming from the Middle East conflict. Ultimately, some analysts say a full-fledged rebound across the crypto market, including Bitcoin, may only be possible in the second half of this year. That view is reinforced by Goldman Sachs, which pushed back its expected timing for the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) to begin cutting its policy rate from June to September to reflect inflation concerns tied to the Middle East conflict. Goldman also raised its oil price forecast for the fourth quarter of this year. The U.S. midterm elections in November are also being cited as a variable that could influence the Bitcoin market. Binance Research, the research arm of global crypto exchange Binance, said, "Historically, markets have often seen strong rallying once election results are finalized and political uncertainty is resolved." Lee Jun-hyung, BloomingBit reporter gilson@bloomingbit.io

If Bitcoin (BTC) prices break above $73,000, short (sell) positions totaling $430 million are likely to be liquidated. BlockBeats, citing on-chain analytics firm CoinGlass data, reported that if Bitcoin rises above $73,000, short-position liquidations on centralized exchanges (CEX) would amount to $429 million. By contrast, if Bitcoin falls below $70,000, long (buy) positions worth $459 million on centralized exchanges are expected to be liquidated. Bitcoin is trading sideways in the $71,000 range on the day. According to CoinMarketCap, as of 6:13 p.m. today, Bitcoin was up 1.63% from the previous day at $71,835.21. That is a 6.26% gain compared with a week earlier.

<Key Economic Events Next Week> ▶︎16 (Mon): △U.S. February industrial production (KST 22:15, U.S. 08:15) ▶︎17 (Tue): △U.S. ADP weekly employment change report (KST 21:15, U.S. 07:15) ▶︎18 (Wed): △South Korea February unemployment rate (KST 08:00, U.S. 18:00) △Japan February trade balance (KST 08:50, U.S. 18:50) △U.S. February producer price index (KST 21:30, U.S. 07:30) △Bank of Canada rate decision (KST 22:45, U.S. 08:45) △U.S. crude oil inventories (KST 23:30, U.S. 09:30) ▶︎19 (Thu): △U.S. rate decision (KST 03:00, U.S. 13:00) △U.S. FOMC economic projections (KST 03:00, U.S. 13:00) △Japan rate decision (KST 12:00, U.S. 22:00) △Bank of England rate decision (KST 21:00, U.S. 07:00) △U.S. initial jobless claims (KST 21:30, U.S. 07:30) △U.S. January new home sales (KST 23:00, U.S. 09:00) ▶︎20 (Fri): △Atlanta Fed GDPNow for Q1 (KST 02:00, U.S. 12:00) <Key Crypto Events Next Week> ▶︎16 (Mon): △Cardano (ADA) Draper Dragon Orion Fund AMA ▶︎17 (Tue): ▶︎18 (Wed): ▶︎19 (Thu): △Chia Network (XCH) mainnet 5th anniversary commemorative call ▶︎20 (Fri): △LayerZero (ZRO) token unlock of 25.7 million tokens

Dogecoin (DOGE) has seen its number of active addresses surge by nearly 180% over the past week. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez said on the 14th (local time) that “the number of Dogecoin active addresses jumped 176% over the past week, from 41,557 to 114,662.” Active addresses are a key metric used to gauge usage of a blockchain network. Expectations for a rise in Dogecoin’s price are also growing. Crypto news outlet Coinpaper said that “an increase in network activity typically signals expanding demand for token transactions,” adding that “if participation in Dogecoin’s network continues to remain elevated, the market could see fresh bullish sentiment form alongside increased liquidity.” Meanwhile, as of 5:15 p.m. today, Dogecoin is trading at $0.096 on CoinMarketCap, up 1.36% from the previous day. That marks a gain of more than 7.5% compared with a week earlier.

The spillover from a Middle East conflict triggered by Iran has led to the cancellation of the Formula One (F1) races in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain that were scheduled for next month. Some cryptocurrency companies, including Crypto.com, an F1 sponsor, are also expected to be affected. According to Reuters on the 14th (local time), F1 and the FIA said in a statement that day that they would cancel next month’s Saudi and Bahrain Grand Prix. The Bahrain and Saudi Grands Prix had been set for April 12 and 19, respectively. The cancellations come as the Iran war is spreading across parts of the Middle East. With key civil infrastructure such as major airports in the region not operating properly, it has also become difficult to bring in the equipment and cargo required for the races. F1 CEO Stefano Domenicali said, “It was a difficult decision, but unfortunately, given the current situation in the Middle East, it is the right decision for now.” The cryptocurrency industry is also likely to take a hit. A prime example is Crypto.com, the official F1 sponsor and a cryptocurrency exchange. OKX, another crypto exchange, is also a major partner of McLaren. CoinDesk reported, “Crypto exchanges and blockchain companies have invested tens of millions to hundreds of millions of dollars in F1 partnerships to target F1 audiences worldwide and the fast-growing Middle East market,” adding that “it carries even greater significance because of Dubai’s standing in the global crypto industry.”

US spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw net inflows totaling $760 million this week. BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, led the buying. According to crypto data analytics firm SoSoValue on the 15th (local time), spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $767 million in net inflows this week, marking a third consecutive week of net inflows. Crypto news outlet Ethnews said, “(This week’s net inflows are) equivalent to purchasing roughly 11,117 bitcoins,” adding that “institutional buying accelerated in a week when Bitcoin rebounded from $66,000 to above $70,000.” BlackRock was the main driver of the ETF inflows. It bought about 8,730 bitcoins via ETFs this week, accounting for roughly 78% of total net inflows. It was followed by Fidelity (2,170), VanEck (211), Bitwise (135) and ARK 21Shares (96). US spot Ethereum ETFs posted net inflows of $160 million this week. That is equivalent to about 62,000 ether, extending the streak of weekly net inflows to three weeks. Fidelity led the inflows, buying about 50,000 ether through its ETF. Grayscale (3,416), ARK 21Shares (517) and Franklin Templeton (390) followed. By contrast, Bitwise sold 3,373 ether via its ETF this week. Unusual fund flows were seen in US spot XRP ETFs. SoSoValue said about $28 million flowed out of spot XRP ETFs this week, the second consecutive week of net outflows. It was the second time since last January that spot XRP ETFs have logged net outflows for two straight weeks. Meanwhile, total net inflows into all US spot crypto ETFs this week were estimated at about $867 million. Total assets under management across the ETFs stood at $106 billion.

The Ethereum Foundation has sold about $10 million worth of Ether to BitMine. According to CoinDesk on the 15th (local time), the Ethereum Foundation recently sold 5,000 Ether to BitMine through an over-the-counter (OTC) transaction. The average transaction price was $2,042.96 per Ether, putting the total sale at $10.2 million. Ethereum plans to use the proceeds from the sale for protocol research and development (R&D) and to support ecosystem growth. In line with its treasury management policy, the Ethereum Foundation has maintained a strategy of balancing its Ether holdings with cash and cash-equivalent assets. Specifically, the Ethereum Foundation sets aside annual operating expenses at about 15% of its treasury reserves and aims to secure roughly 2 years and 6 months’ worth of operating funds in advance. This context also underpins why the foundation periodically sells Ether to raise funds. The Ethereum Foundation has also been upgrading its financial strategy recently, including pursuing a plan to stake up to 70,000 Ether. Meanwhile, BitMine, which purchased Ether from the Ethereum Foundation, is the world’s largest corporate Ether treasury. BitMine is said to currently hold about 4.53 million Ether.

Two Indian tankers are reported to have passed through the Strait of Hormuz. On the news, crude futures on decentralized exchanges (DEXs) briefly fell below $100 a barrel. According to foreign media including BlockBeats on the 15th (local time), the Indian-flagged liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) carriers 'Shivalik' and 'Nanda Devi' recently safely transited the Strait of Hormuz en route to India, carrying cargoes totaling 92,700 tons. BlockBeats reported that “the vessels’ transit (through the Strait of Hormuz) is the result of high-level diplomatic negotiations India held with Iran, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), and others.” Some also see the episode as a possible opening signal for a normalization of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. At present, Chinese and Indian tankers account for more than 50% of global crude volumes moving through the strait. In other words, if Iran allows passage through the Strait of Hormuz only for China and India, more than half of the total volumes transiting the strait could be restored in a short period. As the news spread, oil prices also came under pressure early in the session. According to BlockBeats, crude futures on Hyperliquid (HYPE) recently fell below $100 a barrel and are trading around $98.

A view has emerged that if the US crypto market structure bill—the CLARITY Act—fails to clear a key hurdle in the US Senate by next month, the likelihood of it passing this year will drop sharply. According to Cointelegraph on the 14th (local time), Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, said on X that day, “If the CLARITY Act does not pass out of (the Senate) committee by the end of April this year, the chances of passage in 2026 fall dramatically.” Thorn added, “At the latest, the bill needs to reach the Senate floor in early May,” explaining that “the longer it takes, the odds of passage keep declining.” At present, the CLARITY Act’s central sticking point is whether to allow stablecoin rewards such as interest payments. The US banking industry believes that if stablecoins offer interest-like rewards, bank deposits could flow out on a large scale. The crypto industry, by contrast, is pushing back, arguing that banning stablecoin rewards could become a regulation that stifles innovation. In this regard, Democratic US Senator Angela Alsobrooks recently stressed the need for negotiations, saying, “Both the crypto industry and the banking sector will have to accept a compromise that involves some level of dissatisfaction.” Thorn noted that even if disagreements over interest payments are resolved, new obstacles could emerge. Specifically, he said issues such as DeFi regulation, developer protections, and inter-agency clashes over supervisory authority could rise as new flashpoints. The Senate calendar is also a variable. This follows after US Senator John Thune raised the possibility of prioritizing the ‘SAVE America Act,’ which tightens voter registration requirements, over the CLARITY Act. Some observers also say discussions on the CLARITY Act could be pushed back until after next month. The possibility of a protracted legislative timeline has also been raised. US investment bank (IB) TD Cowen projected that if Democrats delay a vote until ahead of the midterm elections scheduled for November this year, passage of the CLARITY Act could be pushed back to 2027, and actual implementation could be delayed until 2029.

After former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson criticized Bitcoin (BTC) as a “Ponzi scheme,” figures in the crypto industry moved to rebut the claim. According to CoinDesk on the 14th (local time), Johnson said in a recent column for the UK’s Daily Mail, “I have long suspected that bitcoin might be a gigantic Ponzi scheme,” adding that he is now hearing “unfortunate stories” that make him fear he may be right. Johnson pointed out that “bitcoin is merely a sequence of numbers stored on multiple computers.” He also argued that “cryptocurrencies rely on a supply of new and naive investors rather than intrinsic value,” asking, “Why should we trust a system created without institutional backing by someone using the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto?” In response, crypto industry figures issued a unified rebuttal. Michael Saylor, chairman of Strategy, wrote on X that “a Ponzi scheme is a structure in which a central operator promises returns and pays early investors with funds from later investors,” adding that “bitcoin has no issuer, no promoter, and no guaranteed returns.” He continued that “bitcoin is simply an open, decentralized monetary network driven by code and market demand.” Eric Trump, the second son of US President Donald Trump, also pushed back. According to O'Daily and other outlets, Eric Trump said he does not agree with Johnson’s remarks about bitcoin.

Aave (AAVE), a decentralized lending protocol built on Ethereum (ETH), is pushing a plan to sharply reduce its annual token buyback budget. According to Odaily on the 15th (local time), Aave’s decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) has recently launched a governance vote on an “ARFC (Aave Request for Comment)” proposal that would cut the annual token buyback budget from $50 million to $30 million. Support for the agenda stood at about 99.4% as of that day. The move to reduce the buyback budget comes as Aave’s revenue is trending lower. Under the proposal, Aave’s lending-fee revenue has fallen by about 25% from its recent peak. Revenue in January this year came to $7.95 million, down more than 40% from a year earlier ($13.5 million). By contrast, Aave’s operating costs are rising. The proposal estimates Aave’s operating budget this year at about $190 million, up about 5.6% from last year ($142 million). The document said that “to ensure (Aave’s) operational sustainability, a buyback restructuring is necessary.”

U.S. President Donald Trump said on the 14th (local time) that “Iran is showing a willingness to enter ceasefire talks.” Trump made the remarks in a phone interview with NBC that day. He said, “Iran wants a deal, but I don’t want to make a deal yet,” adding that “the terms on the table are not good enough.” He added that “any deal needs very firm terms.” Asked about specific conditions for a ceasefire agreement, he drew a line, saying, “I don’t want to talk about that.” NBC reported that “Trump agreed that a pledge by Iran to completely abandon its ambition to develop nuclear weapons would be part of any agreement.” On the recent sharp rise in global crude prices, he stressed that they would “go lower than they were before.” Trump said, “There is a lot of oil and gas,” adding, “It’s just a little clogged right now, and that problem will be resolved soon.” He said, “We will protect the Strait of Hormuz very strongly, and I think other countries that are being obstructed or affected in oil shipments will join in as well.” Asked about the impact of oil prices on the U.S. midterm elections, he said he was “not concerned at all.” He also mentioned an airstrike on Kharg Island, a key hub for Iran’s crude exports. Trump said, “We completely devastated it,” adding, “We might hit it a few more times for fun.” He continued, “But we didn’t do anything to the energy lines,” saying, “because it would take years to rebuild them.” On Mojtaba Khamenei, recently elected as Iran’s new supreme leader, he said, “I’m not even sure he’s actually alive.” Trump said, “If (Khamenei) is alive, he needs to do something very smart for the country,” adding, “That is surrender.” Earlier, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on the 13th that it is highly likely Mojtaba Khamenei was injured in a recent U.S. strike on Iran and may have been left with facial scars.

On-chain metrics at all-time highs Yet ‘Ethereum’ stays in the $2,000s Widening gap between price and network Fears emerge it could ‘drop into the $1,000s’ “Ethereum (ETH) is facing the ‘Adoption Paradox.’” That is CryptoQuant’s recent assessment of Ethereum. The on-chain analytics firm says the decoupling between Ethereum’s price and the network’s fundamentals—previously highly correlated—is becoming more pronounced. In fact, the Ethereum network has continued to grow this year, with various on-chain indicators nearing record highs. By contrast, Ethereum’s price has been stuck in a $2,000 trading range since mid-last month. With risk appetite damped by the fallout from conflicts in the Middle East, bearish sentiment toward Ethereum is also spreading across the market. According to CryptoQuant on the 13th, the number of active Ethereum addresses surpassed 1.1 million last month, setting a new all-time high. Active addresses are a key metric for measuring network usage. The figure has declined so far this month to around 670,000 as of the previous day (the 12th), but that is still nearly 70,000 higher than last year’s peak (about 600,000). It also exceeds the prior high recorded during the 2021 bull market (about 644,000). Other on-chain indicators are also strong. CryptoQuant noted that “major metrics such as Ethereum’s token transfer volume and the number of smart contract calls have all risen to record levels,” adding that this “shows adoption and participation in the Ethereum ecosystem continue to expand.” The steady rise in on-chain activity is largely driven by growth in DeFi and the stablecoin market. Most DeFi infrastructure is built on Ethereum. In addition, about 55% of total stablecoin supply is issued on Ethereum. In other words, as the stablecoin market expands, Ethereum network usage naturally increases. Ethereum, the perpetual ‘promising contender’ Even so, Ethereum’s price has struggled to gain traction. According to CoinMarketCap, a cryptocurrency market data site, Ethereum has hovered around $2,000 for about a month from mid-last month through today. It has held up relatively well despite a broader risk-asset downturn tied to the Middle East conflict, but given the network’s growth, the performance is effectively weak. Ethereum dominance (market share) has also been steadily declining. Ethereum dominance stood at 10.5% as of today, down nearly 2% points so far this year. Kim Min-seung, head of Korbit’s Research Center, said, “Ethereum’s recent sideways price action is one of the mysteries of the crypto market,” adding, “Ethereum is a perpetual ‘promising contender’ while also being hit by a combination of factors, including a failed Layer 2 ecosystem strategy and broad weakness across the altcoin market.” The market points to “scalability” as the main factor behind the widening gap between Ethereum’s price and its network metrics. In particular, the ‘Fusaka’ upgrade applied to the Ethereum mainnet in the second half of last year proved a direct blow. Vitalik Buterin, Ethereum’s co-founder, went so far as to call the Fusaka upgrade “the key to Layer 2 scalability,” underscoring that the upgrade focused on boosting network scalability. “Scalability ‘side effects’ are to blame” The problem is that as scalability improved, gas fees (transaction fees) also fell sharply. Typically, lower gas fees hurt not only the Ethereum network but also staking profitability. That means the downtrend in gas fees increases the likelihood of capital outflows from the Ethereum ecosystem. In fact, according to DefiLlama, Ethereum’s total value locked (TVL) stood at about $57 billion as of today, plunging more than 41% over the past six months. Kim said, “Ethereum has taken various steps in recent years to reduce gas fees paid by network users,” adding, “As a result, the narrative that rising network usage translates into gas-fee revenue and price appreciation has weakened substantially compared with the past.” U.S. crypto outlet 99Bitcoins reported, “Ethereum’s scalability upgrades aimed to provide users with a cheaper transaction environment, but they have had the side effect of reducing the network’s fee revenue,” adding that “this structural tension is the fundamental cause of the ‘Adoption Paradox.’” Concerns are also growing that Ethereum’s price could sink to the mid-$1,000s. That is because the macroeconomic backdrop—now effectively the key driver of Ethereum’s price—could deteriorate amid spillovers from the Middle East conflict. On Polymarket, the world’s largest betting site, the probability that Ethereum falls below $1,500 by year-end stood at 69% as of today. CryptoQuant also projected that if the crypto bear market persists, Ethereum could drop to $1,500 as early as the third quarter of this year.

U.S. President Donald Trump said preventing Iran’s nuclear development is more important than the rise in international oil prices. In a post on his social media platform Truth Social on the 12th (local time), Trump wrote, "The United States is the world’s largest oil producer," adding, "So if oil prices go up, the United States makes a lot of money." "But as President, what is far more important to me—and what I care about much more—is stopping Iran, an evil empire, from having nuclear weapons and destroying the Middle East and the world," he said, adding, "I will not let that ever happen." Meanwhile, international oil prices climbed back above $100 a barrel despite the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) decision to release a large volume of strategic oil reserves. In response, global investment bank Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for Brent crude in the fourth quarter of this year to $71 a barrel from $66. Its fourth-quarter forecast for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was also revised up to $67 from $62.

Tether (USDT), issuer of the dollar-pegged stablecoin, has made a strategic investment in Ark Labs, a Bitcoin (BTC) infrastructure developer. Tether said on the 12th (local time) it has decided on a $5.2 million strategic investment in Ark Labs. Ark Labs is the developer of the Bitcoin infrastructure project “Arkade.” Tether said, “This investment is intended to expand stablecoin accessibility on the Bitcoin network,” adding that “Ark Labs is uniquely positioned to lead the next generation of commerce and retail payments.” With the latest round, Ark Labs has raised a cumulative $7.7 million. A Tether official said, “This will enable Ark Labs to respond more effectively to rising demand from both individuals and institutions for Bitcoin infrastructure.” Paolo Ardoino, CEO of Tether, stressed that “expanding stablecoin accessibility on the Bitcoin network is a top priority.” Ardoino said, “Ark Labs is building infrastructure that makes it easier to issue and settle stablecoins directly on the Bitcoin network,” adding that it will “improve access to Tether on the most secure and widely recognized blockchain, enhancing financial inclusion and boosting the efficiency of cross-border payments.”

Eightco Holdings, a Nasdaq-listed U.S. company that stockpiles cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum (ETH), has secured a new $125 million investment. Eightco said on the 12th (local time) that it has raised $125 million. The company is a digital asset treasury (DAT) firm that holds Ethereum and Worldcoin (WLD). Specifically, Bitmine, the world’s largest Ethereum (ETH) treasury holder, will invest $75 million. In addition, ARK Invest, led by Cathie Wood—known as the “Queen of the Bull Market”—has committed to invest $25 million. Payward, the parent company of U.S. crypto exchange Kraken, will also invest $25 million. Eightco said, “This investment is expected to be used to expand investments in technology areas leading next-generation artificial intelligence (AI) and blockchain infrastructure.” Eightco also announced the same day that it has made a strategic $50 million investment in OpenAI, the developer of ChatGPT. Eightco said it will also invest $25 million in Beast Industries, the content company of YouTuber MrBeast. Eightco appointed Tom Lee, chairman of Bitmine, as a new director on its board. Brett Winton, ARK Invest’s chief futurist, will serve as an adviser to the board. Chairman Tom Lee said, “Eightco sits at the center of the most important demand and development drivers in the future of AI,” adding, “There is tremendous synergy in the connectivity among Worldcoin, OpenAI and MrBeast.” Meanwhile, Eightco is reported to hold about 11,000 Ethereum and about 277 million Worldcoin.

World Liberty Financial (WLFI), the crypto project backed by US President Donald Trump’s family, is set to enter the artificial intelligence (AI) agent payments market. Zak Folkman, co-founder and chief operating officer (COO) of World Liberty Financial, said on X that “a week ago I said ‘agentic payments’ is a field with a market so large it’s hard to imagine,” adding, “we’ve continued development behind the scenes,” on the 11th (local time). Folkman said he would “soon share an exciting update that will completely change perceptions of how AI agents can autonomously execute payments.” World Liberty Financial is not the only one looking to move into the AI agent payments market. Circle (USDC), Coinbase and Stripe are already developing infrastructure for AI-powered commerce. Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire recently predicted that stablecoins will become the base currency for agentic payments.

Mojtaba Khamenei, elected as Iran’s new supreme leader, declared a “hardline” response toward the United States and Israel in his first message. According to Al Jazeera on the 12th (local time), in his first official statement aired on Iranian state television that day, Khamenei said he would “not step back from the martyrs’ ‘bloody retaliation’” and added, “We will never hesitate to retaliate for the crimes that have been committed.” He said, “We will target only US bases,” and added that he “advises countries in the (Middle East) region to shut down US military bases.” He also signaled determination to maintain the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Khamenei said, “The Strait of Hormuz must remain blocked,” adding, “We must continue using the lever of the Hormuz blockade as a means of pressuring the enemy (the United States and Israel).” In effect, he has formally underscored his intent to pressure the United States by holding the Strait of Hormuz—through which 20% of global crude oil flows pass—hostage. He also hinted at the possibility of expanding the front. Khamenei said, “Review has been completed on forming a vulnerable ‘second front’ the enemy has not experienced,” and added, “We will activate it immediately depending on the war situation and national interests.” He continued, “Iran must extract compensation from its enemies,” adding, “If not, we will destroy their assets.” Iranian media outlets reported Khamenei’s first statement in unison under headlines such as “The new supreme leader declares vengeance for the blood of martyrs.” Elected as Iran’s third supreme leader following the death of his father in US and Israeli airstrikes on the 28th of last month, he issued his first external message on this day, just three days after his selection. Meanwhile, the statement was read out by an anchor on Iran’s state broadcaster, and he did not appear. Mojtaba is believed to have been injured in the airstrike on the 28th of last month.

Global investment bank (IB) Goldman Sachs has pushed back its forecast for when the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin cutting interest rates, delaying it from June to September. According to Reuters on the 12th (local time), Goldman Sachs said in a report the previous day (11th) that it revised the timing of the Fed’s first rate cut from June to September. Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to lower the policy rate by 0.25 percentage points each in September and December this year. Reuters reported that “global financial markets are under pressure as concerns grow over an oil-supply shock from a war between the United States and Iran, elevated inflation and economic uncertainty.” Goldman Sachs’ revision reflects concerns over Iran-driven inflation. On the day, it raised its forecast for Brent crude prices in the fourth quarter from $66 per barrel to $71. Its fourth-quarter forecast for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was also lifted from $62 to $67. Goldman Sachs expects Brent prices to trend lower after averaging $98 per barrel in March and April this year. Goldman Sachs also said the timing of rate cuts could be brought forward if the labor market cools faster than expected. Goldman Sachs said, “Further easing in the labor market and progress in underlying inflation by September this year would provide grounds to justify rate cuts,” adding, “If the labor market weakens faster and by a larger margin than expected, the timing of rate cuts could be moved up.” It added that “a slowdown in gross domestic product (GDP) growth and an expansion of geopolitical risks could also be factors that increase the likelihood of earlier rate cuts.”

Global asset manager BlackRock’s Ethereum (ETH) staking exchange-traded fund (ETF) is set to debut on U.S. markets. According to CoinDesk on the 12th (local time), BlackRock’s iShares Staked Ethereum Trust ETF (iShares Staked Ethereum Trust ETF·ETHB) will list on Nasdaq that day. ETHB is BlackRock’s third cryptocurrency ETF. One of ETHB’s distinguishing features is that it supports Ethereum staking. ETHB is the first time BlackRock has introduced staking into a crypto ETF. CoinDesk reported, “ETHB will hold spot Ethereum and stake a portion of its holdings on the Ethereum network,” adding that this will “allow investors to capture gains from price moves while also receiving additional rewards.” BlackRock says the benefits of a staking ETF are clear. Jay Jacobs, BlackRock’s head of U.S. equity ETFs, told CoinDesk, “Some investors who already hold Ethereum directly are staking it, but they hesitate to move those assets into an ETF out of concern they would forgo staking rewards,” adding, “By integrating staking into an ETF, we enabled investors to retain the benefits of staking while also enjoying the operational advantages of an ETF.” ETHB’s management fee is 0.25%. However, BlackRock plans to reduce the fee to 0.12% for the first year after launch until assets reach $2.5 billion. Jacobs said, “This temporary fee waiver will help build market share in the first few months after the ETF’s launch.” Meanwhile, BlackRock manages more than $60 billion in assets through its existing crypto ETFs. CoinDesk said, “BlackRock is currently running more than $55 billion via its spot Bitcoin ETF and more than $6.5 billion via its spot Ethereum ETF.”

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits last week came in below market expectations. The US Department of Labor said on the 12th (local time) that initial jobless claims totaled 213,000 last week. That was 1,000 below economists’ forecast of 214,000. It was also 1,000 fewer than the prior week’s revised figure of 214,000. Continuing claims—filed by those who have claimed benefits for two consecutive weeks—were tallied at 1.85 million. That was 21,000 below the previous week’s revised level of 1.871 million. The figure matched market expectations of 1.85 million. Initial jobless claims are an indicator for gauging tightness in the US labor market. An increase in claims can be interpreted as a sign that an overheated labor market is cooling. Analysts are watching employment indicators such as jobless claims to assess how US President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies are affecting corporate decision-making.

Global investment bank JPMorgan is facing a class-action lawsuit over allegations that it aided and abetted a $330 million cryptocurrency Ponzi scheme. According to Cointelegraph on the 11th (local time), US investors filed a class-action complaint on the 10th in the US District Court for the Northern District of California, alleging that JPMorgan turned a blind eye to suspicious transactions linked to Goliath Ventures. Goliath Ventures recently filed for bankruptcy amid allegations of a $328 million Ponzi scheme. Cointelegraph reported that “the investors who brought the class action claim JPMorgan allowed Goliath Ventures to use JPMorgan’s infrastructure to siphon off investor funds.” The plaintiffs alleged that JPMorgan was the only financial institution doing business with Goliath Ventures from 2023 through last year. The complaint is also said to include records showing funds transferred from a JPMorgan account to Goliath Ventures’ wallet on Coinbase. Meanwhile, Christopher Delgado, the former chief executive officer (CEO) of Goliath Ventures, was arrested in the US last month on charges of wire fraud and money laundering. Delgado could face up to 30 years in prison if convicted on all counts.

Strategy, the world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin (BTC), is said to have bought as many as 7,000 bitcoins so far this week alone through its perpetual preferred shares, Stretch. Concerns are also being raised about the risks associated with Stretch. CoinDesk reported on the 11th (local time) that Strategy is estimated to have purchased about 700 bitcoins this week using Stretch. Stretch is a perpetual preferred share that Strategy issued in the second half of last year to raise funds for bitcoin purchases. The annual dividend rate is 11.5%, and dividends are paid in cash monthly. The view is that Stretch is quickly establishing itself as a new funding source for Strategy. CoinDesk said, “Since the launch of Stretch, the cumulative number of bitcoins purchased through the product amounts to about 34,000,” adding that “corporate interest is also gradually increasing, with US asset manager Strive recently investing $50 million in Stretch.” Some are also pointing to the risks of Stretch. Alexander Blume, CEO of US investment advisory Two Prime, told CoinDesk, “There’s no free lunch,” adding, “If a product offers a yield more than 6% higher than US Treasuries, there must be additional risk commensurate with that.” There are also criticisms that purchases of Stretch have been concentrated among a handful of companies. CEO Blume said, “We are seeing moves by a few companies to buy Stretch,” while adding, “For now, in some cases they appear to be symbolic or partnership-type transactions.”

New Zealand authorities have said stablecoins pegged to the country’s currency do not qualify as financial products. The Financial Markets Authority (FMA) said on the 11th (local time) that the stablecoin “NZDD” is not a financial product under the Financial Markets Conduct Act. NZDD is a stablecoin whose value is pegged 1-to-1 to the New Zealand dollar. The FMA stressed that “the economic substance of a stablecoin is not a ‘debt security.’” It added that “the practical use of a stablecoin is as a means of payment or remittance,” noting that “NZDD stablecoin holders are not paid income, interest, or other benefits, and it is not an investment product.” The FMA’s view is that stablecoins should be defined as a “means of payment.” The FMA said “stablecoins are, in substance, closer to a ‘payment mechanism,’” adding that “consumers are also likely to view them as payment products rather than investment products.” It went on to say that “classifying NZDD as a debt security could instead create consumer confusion about the product’s true nature.” It also expressed optimism about stablecoins. The FMA said “NZDD has the potential to improve efficiency in the payments and remittance market,” explaining that this is because it “can broaden (market) competition and contribute to improved market efficiency.” It also said that “regulating (NZDD) as a debt security is unlikely to lead to greater transparency or the provision of useful information to customers.”

Metaplanet, dubbed “Japan’s Strategy,” is establishing a subsidiary in the United States. Through the new unit, Metaplanet plans to launch Bitcoin (BTC)-based financial products in the US. In a post on its official X account, Metaplanet said on the 11th (local time) that it will establish a new US subsidiary, “Metaplanet Asset Management.” Explaining the rationale, the company said that as institutions and even sovereigns increasingly adopt Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset, related financial products and the securities ecosystem are expanding rapidly. It added that it sees an opportunity to build a dedicated asset-management platform linking Asian and Western capital markets to target this demand. Metaplanet is focusing on perpetual preferred stock. Strategy, the world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin (BTC), issued a perpetual preferred stock dubbed “Stretch” in the second half of last year to finance Bitcoin purchases. Metaplanet said it sees meaningful opportunities across several areas, particularly in perpetual preferreds and related fixed-income products, adding that these asset classes have recently been referred to as “Digital Credit” and provide investors with exposure across the full spectrum of returns and volatility. The company also flagged the possibility of rolling out a range of financial products via its US subsidiary. Metaplanet said it plans to announce funds, investment strategies and structured products in stages, adding that the lineup will span the broader Bitcoin capital markets—from income-oriented and fixed-income products to active equities, credit, commodities and volatility strategies.

Global cryptocurrency exchange Binance said that if the Iran war becomes prolonged, rising crude oil prices could intensify downside pressure on risk assets such as Bitcoin (BTC). Some also see the US midterm elections as a potential tailwind for risk-asset markets this year. Binance Research, an affiliate of Binance, said in a weekly report on the 11th (local time) that “the market’s direction going forward is likely to be shaped by geopolitical developments centered on the US, Israel and Iran,” adding that “it will be necessary to closely watch for any diplomatic breakthrough.” It added, “However, if the conflict becomes prolonged, global crude prices could rise again to above $100 per barrel,” and said that “if a closure of the Strait of Hormuz lasts for more than 1 month, that is the price level the market is implicitly pricing in, and it would act as a persistent source of pressure across risk-asset markets.” It also mentioned the limits of releases from the International Energy Agency (IEA)’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Binance Research said, “Looking at the Biden administration’s 2022 SPR release, actual supply was limited to about 1 million barrels per day due to physical bottlenecks,” and “assuming a release of 180 million barrels, it would take 4–5 months.” It continued, “Even if SPR barrels are released, oil still has to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and throughput in the strait has already fallen by more than 95%,” adding, “the current potential supply shortfall is 12–16 million barrels per day, meaning the SPR could only partially make up for the deficit.” Regarding the US midterm elections scheduled for November, it described them as an “opportunity amid risk.” Binance Research noted, “In years with (US) midterms, the S&P 500 has tended to fall by about 16% on average from peak to trough due to political uncertainty,” adding, “for Bitcoin, the average decline in midterm years was 56%.” It went on to say, “(But) once election results are finalized and uncertainty is lifted, markets have historically shown strong rallies,” adding, “Bitcoin also rose in all three years following midterms, posting an average gain of 54%.” Meanwhile, global crude prices again climbed above $100 per barrel intraday on the day. Brent previously surged to as high as $119 per barrel intraday on the 9th, then, as expectations grew for an early end to the war, plunged 11% from the previous session to close at $87.8.

On-chain crude oil trading volume is also surging as the Middle East conflict has fueled a rise in international oil prices, data showed. OKX Ventures, the venture arm of global cryptocurrency exchange OKX, said on X that “on Hyperliquid (HYPE), the 24-hour trading volume of the ‘CL-USDC’ perpetual contract tracking West Texas Intermediate (WTI) jumped from a pre-(Iran) war daily average of $21 million to $1.2 billion–$1.99 billion now.” OKX Ventures added that “when crude oil volume hit a record high, it surpassed Ethereum (ETH) volume, becoming the second most-traded asset on the network.” The surge is not limited to decentralized exchanges (DEXs). OKX Ventures said, “Gate data show 24-hour trading volume for Brent crude contracts rose 951%, and volume for XTI, a WTI contract, also increased by about 397%.” OKX Ventures stressed that “institutional and retail funds are flowing in en masse (into crude oil trading).” It analyzed that “Hyperliquid’s current crude oil open interest (OI) stands at around $183 million–$290 million,” adding that “this suggests funds are being deployed not only for ultra-short-term trading but also to build longer-term macro hedge positions.”

World Liberty Financial (WLFI), the cryptocurrency project backed by US President Donald Trump’s family, has made a large transfer of its tokens to a centralized exchange (CEX). According to Onchain Lens on the 11th (local time), World Liberty Financial deposited about 39.7 million of its WLFI tokens into global cryptocurrency exchange Binance that day. At current prices, the transfer is worth $4 million. A transfer of tokens to an exchange is typically seen as a potential sign of selling. World Liberty Financial has made several large transfers of its tokens to centralized exchanges multiple times this month. Separately, the team behind President Trump’s memecoin Official Trump (TRUMP) also deposited 5 million TRUMP tokens into Binance on the same day. Valued at $14.4 million at current prices, the amount represents part of the 32.5 million TRUMP tokens the Official Trump team unlocked last month. Of the tokens unlocked at the time, 9.88 million TRUMP were reportedly deposited into Binance through recently.