Bitcoin, nearly 6% plunge in a day 'Yearn Finance hack' direct hit Chain liquidations deepen the decline U.S. ETFs saw 3.5 billion dollars outflow last month "Could fall to 75,000 dollars within the year" Bitcoin (BTC) prices, which had been showing a rebound, plunged by nearly 6% in a single day. The impact came from the hack of Yearn Finance (YFI), a DeFi protocol based on Ethereum (ETH), which triggered a risk-off (Risk-Off·flight from risky assets) sentiment. There are views that Bitcoin prices could drop to the $70,000 range this month. According to crypto market tracker CoinMarketCap on the 1st, Bitcoin prices fell from the $91,000 range to as low as the $85,000 range on the day, a drop of about 6%. Bitcoin falling below $86,000 was the first time in a week since the 24th of last month. Afterwards, Bitcoin prices slightly rebounded and recovered to the $86,000 range. The sharp drop in Bitcoin prices was due to the Yearn Finance hack. Yearn Finance suffered about 9 million dollars (roughly 13 billion won) in damages on the 30th of last month (local time) from an exploit (Exploit·vulnerability attack). The hacker reportedly effectively minted the index token yETH of Yearn Finance to an almost infinite degree, depleting liquidity. Analysts say the Yearn Finance hack triggered a risk-off sentiment across DeFi and the crypto market. Jeff Mei, Chief Operating Officer (COO) of crypto exchange BTSE, said, "Yearn Finance is a relatively large DeFi aggregator," adding, "the (hack) fear could trigger withdrawals and unstaking, intensifying selling pressure." 640 million dollars liquidated in one day amid the plunge Chain liquidations in the derivatives market poured fuel on the decline. On-chain analytics firm CoinGlass reported that about 643 million dollars (roughly 95 billion won) in positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours as of that day. About 88% of the liquidated positions were long (buy) positions. U.S. crypto media Cointelegraph reported, "About 180,000 investors were liquidated in the past 24 hours," adding that the liquidations were concentrated on long positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH). Weakened inflows from institutional funds are also cited as one of the causes of the decline. On-chain analytics firm SoSoValue reported that U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded a net outflow of 3.48 billion dollars (about 5.1 trillion won) last month. In terms of net outflows, this is the largest since February this year, nine months ago. From BlackRock's IBIT alone, the largest spot Bitcoin ETF, 2.34 billion dollars (about 3.4 trillion won) flowed out. Expectations of a Japanese interest rate hike also appear to have negatively affected the Bitcoin market. Japan's two-year government bond yield, sensitive to monetary policy, topped 1% on the day, hitting its highest level in 17 years since 2008. If Japanese bond yields rise, the incentive for institutional investors to borrow cheap yen and invest in higher-yielding assets through the yen carry trade could weaken. Crypto analytics firm Matrixport said, "Even if the U.S. Fed takes a dovish (favoring monetary easing) stance, it may not be sufficient to offset tightening signals from other countries (such as Japan)," adding, "this could be a background factor leading institutional investors to continuously reduce their Bitcoin exposure." "Rate cut expectations already priced in for Sep–Oct" This is why crypto investor sentiment was hit hard despite expectations of a Fed rate cut in December. Crypto data firm Alternative's 'Fear & Greed Index' stood at 24 on the day, down 4 points from the previous day (28), moving from the 'fear' stage into the 'extreme fear' stage. The Fear & Greed Index indicates that the closer the value is to 0, the more contracted investor sentiment is. On betting site Polymarket, the probability that Bitcoin will fall below $80,000 within the year jumped to 58% on the day, up 25 percentage points from the previous day. Experts say that if Bitcoin does not recover to the $87,000 range in the short term, downward pressure could increase. Rachel Lucas, BTC Markets analyst, analyzed, "Expectations for a December rate cut were already priced in during the rally in September–October," adding, "(risk-on appetite) remains limited due to macroeconomic pressures such as tariffs and entrenched inflation." She continued, "If Bitcoin fails to hold the key support at $87,000, a 'liquidity sweep' phenomenon could push it down to the $75,000 range."
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