As the U.S. August consumer price index met expectations and hopes for a September rate cut grew, crypto assets (cryptocurrencies) are also showing an upward trend. In particular, there is growing expectation that the altcoin market is entering the early stage of a rally. Bitcoin dominance (BTC Dominance, the proportion of Bitcoin in the total crypto asset market capitalization) was 57.35% on the 13th and is showing a downward trend again. The fact that dominance fell despite a rise in Bitcoin's price suggests that recently more buying pressure has flowed into altcoins. XRP, rising expectations due to institutional buying and ETF hopes Recently XRP has seen heightened expectations of a rise as institutional demand and accumulation by large whale holders have coincided. On the 11th, crypto-focused media BeInCrypto reported, "Open Interest (OI) of XRP futures traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has steadily increased this month and reached a record high of 384,500,000 XRP on the 10th." It added, "The current rally is supported by long-term capital rather than short-term speculative money," and explained, "the on-chain liveliness indicator fell to a 52-day low of 0.81, indicating a decrease in selling by long-term holders and holding sentiment." Liveliness is an indicator that shows the degree of movement of long-held coins. Open interest refers to the number of unsettled contracts among futures and options, and when the scale increases it means more market capital inflow. The CME is the world's largest derivatives exchange and is mainly used by institutional investors. On-chain analytics firm Santiment said on a recent YouTube broadcast, "XRP whales appeared to have sold heavily after roughly a 60% surge in mid-July, and have recently begun accumulating again during the downturn," and "such whale activity signals have coincided with three past price reversals, so a new buying opportunity could open soon." It added, "As of the past 30 days, short-term investor returns are -0.5%, effectively at breakeven, while long-term investors maintain slightly positive returns, leaving the market in a neutral state." The increase in companies classified as 'Digital Asset Treasury' (DAT), which accumulate coins, is also supporting the uptrend along with expectations for a spot XRP ETF. James Seyffart, a Bloomberg ETF analyst, said in a Milkroad YouTube interview on the 5th, "If the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) finalizes the general listing standard (GLS) under discussion within the next few months, assets whose futures have been traded for at least six months under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) could be classified as eligible for spot ETF listings, and XRP could be included." GLS refers to a general listing standard that would allow certain crypto assets that meet specific requirements to be listed as ETFs without an individual review process. The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) and others submitted a rule change proposal including GLS to the SEC in July, raising expectations for multiple altcoin ETF listings. "XRP rebounds after holding support…Will it enter an additional rising phase?" Analysts assessed that XRP has been seeking additional upside after rebounding while holding its support. Aayushi Jindal, a researcher at NewsBTC, projected, "Since XRP is maintaining the $2.95 support level, it is highly likely to retest the $3.02–$3.05 resistance range after a short-term correction." She added, "If it breaks through these levels decisively, there is room to rise to $3.12 and $3.15, with the next major resistance at around $3.20." However, she cautioned, "If it fails to surpass the $3.05 resistance, it will revisit supports at $2.98 and $2.915." Rakesh Upadhyay of Cointelegraph also analyzed, "XRP has secured support above $2.91 recently, so if the bearish pattern is invalidated it could rebound to $3.15 and $3.40." He added, "If the daily close slips below $2.91, it would indicate continued selling pressure," and warned, "a break of the $2.73 support could risk further declines to $2.20." XRP's price was trading at $3.165, up 3.8% from the previous day on the Binance Tether (USDT) market as of 18:13 on the 13th (4385 won on Upbit). Entire altcoin market, entering early bullish phase…expectations rising There is growing expectation that the altcoin market is entering the early stage of a bullish trend as it follows a recovery path. According to Blockchain Center, the 'altcoin season' index recorded 80, the highest since early December last year. Typically, the index is interpreted as the start of an altcoin season when it exceeds 75. On the 11th, Altcoin Vector diagnosed, "The altcoin market is gradually setting the stage for an initial bullish phase ahead of the fourth quarter." It added, "Small- and mid-cap altcoins (excluding the top 10 by market cap) that have endured long corrections are still holding above their support, and if Bitcoin continues to break out they could all respond in unison." It also cautioned, "Some rapidly rising names like Ethereum are in a 'trap zone' where breakout and profit-taking overlap, increasing short-term volatility, so caution is needed." Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen said, "The most likely scenario now is that the altcoin market's bullishness continues amid rate-cut expectations and market flows," and noted, "Ethereum, which rose sharply over the past six months, may take a breather for a while, allowing small- and mid-cap altcoins to show relative strength versus Ethereum." He added, "In fact, over the past 2–3 weeks Ethereum's momentum has slowed while other altcoins have shown relative strength," and predicted, "ALT/ETH could rise another 10–15% over the next 2–4 weeks." Crypto strategist Michael van de Poppe forecasted, "Statistically, August and September are weak periods, but since August already fell sharply this year, September could turn into a recovery phase and this could be interpreted as a market entry opportunity." He also noted, "The altcoin market capitalization index excluding Bitcoin (TOTAL2) has confirmed the mid-term support (20-week moving average), Chainlink (LINK) has started a short-term uptrend, and Optimism (OP) is on the verge of a breakout," adding, "Volatility in altcoins will be high in the coming weeks, but opportunities will open as well." Some analysts say it remains to be seen whether a full-fledged uptrend will continue. Santiment diagnosed, "Recently market attention has concentrated on major names like Ethereum, Solana and XRP rather than minor altcoins," and noted, "Some names have seen rapid spikes in trading volume and market cap, but this flow was driven by new investors and short-term traders' rotation money, so it is not yet clear that this is a clear upward signal for the entire market." It added, "These rapid price surges are more about rotation of existing supply than new capital inflows, so their sustainability needs to be observed." Minseung Kang, Bloomingbit reporter minriver@bloomingbit.io
September 13PiCK