YM Lee

Investor demand surged for a data-center bond issue tied to crypto miner Cipher Mining. The deal structure—combining AI infrastructure with cloud demand—was seen as drawing strong investor interest. According to Bloomberg on the 4th (local time), Cipher Mining subsidiary Black Pearl Compute issued $2 billion of high-yield bonds to finance construction of a data center in Texas, drawing roughly $13 billion in orders. It is being viewed as one of the standout successes in the junk-bond market in recent years. Once completed, the data center will be leased to Amazon Web Services (AWS) for at least 15 years. Analysts say securing a stable long-term lease boosted investor confidence. The Black Pearl data center will have total capacity of 300 megawatts (MW) and is being built under a contract Cipher Mining signed with AWS last November. The bonds have a five-year maturity, with the coupon set at 6.125%. That is above the average yield of 5.56% for comparable BB-rated bonds. Market participants say surging demand for AI-infrastructure assets offset much of the spread premium. Oracle, two days earlier, issued $25 billion of corporate bonds, setting the largest bond-sale record so far in 2026. Some analysts also note that, following Oracle’s successful offering, investor risk appetite has spread broadly across AI- and hyperscaler-linked bonds. Bloomberg Intelligence said that concerns about an oversupply of AI-related bonds have eased after Oracle’s issuance, leading demand to broaden into bonds tied to data centers and cloud infrastructure. Still, amid worries that the spread of AI technology could pressure profitability across the software sector, some companies’ stock and bond prices remain highly volatile. Adding to caution, about $500 billion in market capitalization has evaporated from the crypto market alone over the past week, keeping broader risk-asset sentiment on edge. The market sees this case as a sign that crypto-mining firms are moving in earnest to expand their business models beyond traditional mining into providing data centers and AI infrastructure.

Large-scale capital is continuing to exit Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), intensifying downside pressure on Bitcoin prices. According to Cointelegraph on the 4th (local time), U.S.-listed Bitcoin spot ETFs saw total net outflows of $2.9 billion over the past 12 trading days. Over the same period, Bitcoin fell about 26%, sliding below the $73,000 level. Average daily net outflows from ETFs were estimated at roughly $243 million. This nearly coincided with the point on Jan. 14 when Bitcoin met resistance around $98,000. As prices fell thereafter, a large volume of leveraged long positions in Bitcoin futures was liquidated, triggering forced liquidations totaling about $3.25 billion. Some in the market say the fallout from last October’s mass-liquidation episode still lingers. At the time, a technical error on Binance sparked widespread liquidations, and the exchange moved to compensate affected users. Hasib Qureshi, managing partner at hedge fund Dragonfly, said, “With the liquidation engine operating without market-stabilizing functions, even market makers were hit,” adding, “Restoring liquidity will take time.” The options market is also showing signs of caution over further declines. The 30-day delta skew for Bitcoin options rose to 13%, suggesting professional investors are hedging against downside risk. This is interpreted as indicating limited conviction that Bitcoin has formed a bottom around $72,100. Meanwhile, with tech stocks weakening, Bitcoin’s increasing correlation with the Nasdaq index is also acting as a headwind. Industry sources dismissed as unfounded the recent rumors raised in some quarters about liquidity at major exchanges. As market uncertainty persists, when ETF outflows begin to abate is seen as a key variable that will determine Bitcoin’s near-term direction.

Coinbase, the largest crypto exchange in the United States, has added Aztec (AZTEC) and Espresso (ESP) as new roadmap assets. On the 4th (local time), Coinbase Markets said via its official X account that it had "added Aztec and Espresso to the roadmap." This is a stage in which the company evaluates the possibility of trading support and does not mean an immediate listing. Coinbase said that "the launch of trading for these assets is contingent on market-making support and sufficient technical infrastructure being in place," adding that "the timing of the trading launch will be announced separately at a later date." Adding an asset to Coinbase’s roadmap is a process of pre-screening liquidity conditions and technical readiness. While the market often interprets it as a potential listing signal, additional requirements must be met before actual trading support is provided.

Bitcoin extended its decline, sliding intraday to around the $72,000 level amid a global risk-off mood. In the market, skepticism is again growing over whether Bitcoin can serve as a safe-haven asset during bouts of volatility. According to Bloomberg on the 4th (local time), Bitcoin at one point fell to $72,047, marking its lowest level in about 15 months. It is now down more than 40% from the all-time high set in October last year. Bloomberg reported that the day’s drop was driven less by crypto-specific factors than by the risk-off stance across global financial markets. In U.S. equities, the Nasdaq 100 fell more than 2%, and selling spread across rate-sensitive sectors. Some in the market also say waning confidence in Bitcoin is amplifying volatility. Shiliang Tang, managing partner at Monarq Asset Management, said the market is currently experiencing a crisis of confidence in Bitcoin. Institutional flows were also choppy. U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were estimated to have swung to a net outflow of about $272 million in a single day, after posting roughly $562 million in net inflows the prior session. Bloomberg noted that Bitcoin has recently shown a high correlation with risk assets. As a result, the debate is likely to continue over whether it can function as a defensive asset during periods of market stress.

Bets that Bitcoin could fall further are spreading, centered on prediction markets. The implied probabilities are skewing more toward downside scenarios than expectations of a rebound. According to Bloomberg on the 4th (local time), on the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, the probability of Bitcoin dropping below $65,000 this year was priced at 82%. That figure implies an additional decline of about 13% from the current price. Some participants are wagering on an even more pessimistic outlook. While the odds of ending the year below $55,000 rose to about 60%, the probability of Bitcoin reclaiming $100,000 fell to 54% from 80% at the start of the year. Bearish sentiment also stands out in short-dated contracts. In Polymarket’s February-expiry contract, the probability that Bitcoin trades below $70,000 through March 1 was priced at 72%. About $1.7 million has been wagered on that scenario. Market participants cite Bitcoin’s recent failure to act as a safe haven as a bearish factor. Ilan Solot of Marex said the current flow in prediction markets reflects broader risk-off sentiment. Bitcoin has fallen about 40% since hitting an all-time high of $126,000 last October. Over the same period, the total market capitalization of the crypto market also shrank from around $4 trillion to roughly $2.5 trillion. Bloomberg reported that about $4 billion in net outflows from U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs over the past three months has added to downward pressure on prices. The analysis also says long-term holders are amplifying concerns about a slowing cycle. Still, some Wall Street institutions are leaving the door open to a rebound later this year. Standard Chartered and Bernstein lowered their price targets, but are maintaining the possibility of reaching $150,000 by year-end.

Tether is reportedly considering a plan to significantly reduce the size of its new fundraising from the level previously planned. The move is seen as being influenced by investor pushback over the company’s valuation. According to the Financial Times (FT) on the 4th (local time), Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino said during recent discussions with investors that the amount of new capital to be raised could come in below the level initially floated. The report said Tether’s advisers are examining the possibility of raising at least $5bn, instead of the $15bn–$20bn investment round discussed last year. This is said to be because some investors have taken a cautious stance, burdened by Tether’s $500bn valuation target. Tether remains the leading player by market share in the global stablecoin market, but market views on its valuation methodology and growth prospects have been mixed. Analysts say the combination of a large fundraising effort and talk of a lofty valuation has led to friction in efforts to win over investors. The Financial Times said the fundraising talks are still at an early stage and that the final amount to be raised has not been determined.

Micro-value stablecoin transfers on the Ethereum network are rising rapidly. As lower transaction costs have boosted network usage, some transfers could be exploited for security attacks, prompting calls for caution. According to Cointelegraph on the 3rd (local time), blockchain data analytics firm Coin Metrics estimated that micro stablecoin transfers on Ethereum account for about 11% of all transactions and as much as 26% when measured by active addresses. Coin Metrics analyzed 227 million balance-change events for Circle’s U.S. dollar stablecoin USDC and Tether’s dollar stablecoin USDT on Ethereum from November last year to January 2026. Of these, 43% were transfers under $1, and 38% were under $0.01—transactions with virtually no economic meaning. Coin Metrics classified these micro transfers as “dust.” The share of micro stablecoin transfers is up 2–3 times compared with levels before the Fusaka upgrade late last year. Still, 57% of all stablecoin transactions exceeded $1, suggesting a substantial portion of network growth is underpinned by normal economic activity. The security industry warned that micro stablecoin transfers can be used in attacks that trick users into sending assets to the wrong address. The method involves sending a tiny amount from an address that closely resembles the victim’s real wallet address, leaving a transaction record and then prompting the user to copy it. Losses tied to such incidents have already been tallied in the hundreds of thousands of dollars. Coin Metrics said that while broader real-world usage of the Ethereum network is positive, the rise in micro stablecoin transfers can distort network activity indicators, so caution is needed when interpreting the data.

U.S.-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) posted modest net inflows in a single day, moving in the opposite direction from Bitcoin ETFs. According to Trader T on the 3rd (local time), total net inflows across Ethereum ETFs reached $15 million. Inflows were concentrated in products from BlackRock and Grayscale. BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) recorded the largest inflow, with $43.82 million in net subscriptions. Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust (ETH) also drew $19.12 million, while the legacy Grayscale ETHE saw net inflows of $8.25 million. By contrast, Fidelity’s FETH posted the largest net outflow, with $54.84 million leaving the fund. VanEck’s ETHV also saw net outflows of $2.47 million. Elsewhere, Invesco’s QETH recorded $1.14 million in net inflows, while Bitwise’s ETHW, 21Shares’ CETH, and Franklin’s EZET were flat with no flows.

US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) extended their weak trend as $269.93 million in net outflows were recorded. According to Trader T on the 3rd (local time), total net outflows across Bitcoin ETFs came to $269.93 million. Among major ETFs, only BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) posted net inflows, while most other large ETFs saw withdrawals. BlackRock’s IBIT was the only fund in positive territory, taking in $62.12 million in net inflows. By contrast, Fidelity’s FBTC recorded the largest net outflow, with $148.70 million leaving the fund. Bitwise’s BITB saw $23.42 million in net outflows, while ARK Invest’s ARKB logged $62.50 million in net outflows. Grayscale’s GBTC also saw $56.63 million exit, and the Grayscale Mini Bitcoin Trust (BTC) likewise posted $33.80 million in net outflows. Elsewhere, Franklin’s EZBC recorded $2.19 million in net outflows and VanEck’s HODL saw $4.81 million in net outflows. Invesco’s BTCO, Valkyrie’s BRRR, and WisdomTree’s BTCW were flat, with no net flows. Market participants say the ongoing pullback in Bitcoin prices is feeding through to ETF flows via short-term profit-taking and a risk-off stance. Still, with inflows into BlackRock’s IBIT continuing, some argue institutional demand has not fully faded.

Bitcoin is continuing to tussle around the $74,000 level, but analysts say downside pressure is persisting as weakening technical momentum coincides with macro uncertainty. According to Decrypt on the 4th (local time), Bitcoin has been oscillating around $74,000 following a recent sharp drop. While it has retraced part of the short-term decline, the assessment is that clear signs of a rebound have yet to be confirmed. Crypto trading firm QCP Capital said, "Although Bitcoin is holding above $74,500, price momentum is still pointing lower," adding that "upside traction remains limited near the recent resistance zone." It added that "if $74,000 breaks, additional liquidation pressure could intensify." QCP said Bitcoin needs to reclaim the $80,000 level as a condition for a near-term shift in trend. It also pointed to key variables that could determine near-term direction, including whether institutional buying returns, easing geopolitical tensions, and a change in the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance. Bitcoin briefly slid to $73,100 during the session before paring some losses, but it is still down about 1% on a daily basis. Ethereum and major altcoins also moved lower, leaving overall market sentiment subdued. From a technical standpoint, caution signals are persisting as well. The market views the $74,000 area as a key psychological level in this cycle. Because this price band overlaps with the average entry costs of some institutions and corporates, a breakdown could increase supply-demand strain, analysts say. Prediction markets are also pricing in downside risk. Some platforms are assigning a high probability that Bitcoin could fall to the $65,000 range at some point in 2026, and the prospect of additional correction has not been fully ruled out. The prevailing view is that volatility and uncertainty are likely to persist until leveraged positions are sufficiently cleared out and spot buyers return. A short-term rebound attempt is possible, but analysts say it is still too early to talk about a trend reversal.

Investor Michael Burry, who predicted the 2008 global financial crisis, has issued a scathing critique of Bitcoin’s nature as an asset in the wake of its recent sharp selloff, reigniting the debate over whether it can serve as a “store of value.” According to Bloomberg on the 3rd (local time), Burry warned in a recently published newsletter that “as Bitcoin breaks below a key support level, a nauseating scenario that could lead to massive value destruction has come into view.” He argued the decline is difficult to dismiss as a simple price correction. After its psychological support level gave way, Bitcoin at one point slid to around $72,000. That is more than a 40% drop from the all-time high logged in October last year. With market volatility widening, doubts are also growing about Bitcoin’s defensiveness. Burry noted, “At current levels, even an additional 10% decline in Bitcoin would saddle companies holding large amounts of it with billions of dollars in losses,” adding that “in that case, raising funds in capital markets could be effectively cut off.” His view is that the financial stability of corporate Bitcoin holders could spill over into broader market risk. He also drew a line under the prevailing belief that Bitcoin can function as a store of value as “digital gold.” He cited the fact that while gold and silver have repeatedly notched record highs amid geopolitical tensions and worries about a weaker dollar, Bitcoin has remained under pressure even in the same environment. Burry concluded that “Bitcoin is ultimately a purely speculative asset.” As its decoupling from traditional safe-haven assets becomes more pronounced, analysts say the debate over whether Bitcoin can be regarded as a long-term store of value is resurfacing.

Aave Labs has decided to retire the 'Avara' brand—once emblematic of its Web3 expansion strategy—and refocus on its core DeFi business. According to The Block on the 3rd (local time), Aave Labs said it will wind down projects that sat under Avara and consolidate all products and services under the Aave Labs brand. As a result, non-lending assets such as the decentralized social media protocol Lens and the Family wallet will also be phased out. Avara was an 'umbrella brand' introduced in 2023 as Aave pursued a strategy to expand beyond DeFi into a range of Web3 areas. It encompassed multiple projects including the Lens Protocol and the Family wallet, but the company said recent strategic shifts have reduced the need to maintain it. In a post on X, Aave Labs said, "Going forward, all products will be operated under the Aave Labs brand," adding that it will "simplify the brand architecture, boost awareness of Aave, and focus resources on introducing DeFi to new users worldwide." The decision also comes amid an ongoing tug-of-war over authority between Aave Labs and Aave DAO. While Aave Labs is the private company that developed the original Aave lending protocol, the protocol’s smart contracts, risk parameters and revenue model are currently managed by Aave DAO. Previously, in December last year, debate intensified within the community over who holds de facto control of Aave after Aave Labs integrated CoW Swap into its official website and routed part of fee revenue to a private wallet rather than the DAO. A so-called "poison pill" proposal to have the DAO absorb Aave Labs’ intellectual property and brand later emerged, but it was voted down in a governance vote. Aave Labs co-founder Stani Kulechov has recently moved to put the emphasis back on DeFi. After selling the Lens Protocol in January, he also decided to shut down the Family wallet-related business. "The Avara brand is no longer necessary," he said, adding, "We will focus on mainstreaming DeFi as one team." Aave recently unveiled a revamped app featuring high-yield deposit products and deposit protection of up to $1 million. Aave Labs has also floated a long-term plan to scale on-chain finance to the multi-trillion-dollar level once regulatory uncertainty is resolved. Meanwhile, reports that Kulechov recently purchased a home worth about $30 million in Notting Hill, London, are said to have drawn a sensitive reaction from parts of the community.

Funding rates for Ethereum (ETH) perpetual futures have flipped negative—typically read as a buy signal—but caution is dominating the market as U.S. macro uncertainty intensifies. According to Cointelegraph on the 3rd (local time), Ethereum fell as low as $2,110 intraday, plunging about 28% over the past week. Over the same period, investors cut exposure to risk assets and moved into cash and short-term Treasuries, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq index slid 1.4%. Market jitters grew as excessive optimism around the artificial intelligence (AI) industry cooled. Concerns over AI-related valuations intensified after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said he has no plans to invest $100 billion in OpenAI. Adding to the pressure, PayPal’s disappointing quarterly results heightened vigilance over rising volatility. Against this backdrop, the annualized funding rate for Ethereum perpetual futures turned negative. This implies short sellers are paying to maintain positions, a signal that bullish sentiment has become extremely depressed. Still, opinions are split on whether this fear-driven phase represents a strategic entry point. Ethereum has underperformed the broader crypto market by about 10% over the past 30 days. Over the same period, Bitcoin fell 17%, while BNB declined 14% and Tron slipped 4%. The sharp drop in Ethereum prices triggered more than $2 billion in liquidations from leveraged long positions alone. Slowing institutional demand is also a burden. U.S.-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded net outflows totaling $447 million over the past five days. Despite some companies continuing to accumulate Ethereum, roughly $14.4 billion worth of holdings tied up in ETFs is being viewed as potential selling pressure. On-chain indicators are also pointing to weakness. As of January, monthly trading volume on Ethereum-based decentralized exchanges came to $52.8 billion, down 47% from $98.9 billion in October 2025. With network activity slowing and the burn mechanism’s impact weakening, expectations for supply contraction have also faded. The market is increasingly assessing that a negative turn in funding rates alone is not enough to justify expectations of a short-term rebound. With weakening on-chain demand, ETF outflows, and macro uncertainty acting in tandem, analysts say Ethereum investor sentiment is likely to remain cautious for the time being.

Bitcoin slid toward the $73,000 level, erasing all of the gains built up since Donald Trump was elected U.S. president. Growing on-chain loss supply and large-scale liquidations have combined to intensify corrective pressure. According to The Block on the 3rd (local time), Bitcoin fell intraday to around $73,000, returning to early-November levels last year. It was the first time Bitcoin had traded below $74,000 since before Trump’s election victory was confirmed. Trump’s win fueled expectations for a crypto-friendly policy stance, acting as a catalyst for Bitcoin’s bull market. Bitcoin subsequently climbed to a record high of $126,080 on October 6, 2025, but has dropped about 30% over the past month, shifting into a clear downtrend. On-chain data show a rapid increase in supply that has moved into loss territory. Glassnode manager Shaun O’Rourke said 44% of the total Bitcoin supply is now underwater versus its acquisition price. As a result, the share of supply in profit has fallen from 78% to 56%. “Investors who bought near the all-time high are now sitting on losses,” O’Rourke said, adding that supply concentrated near recent peaks is being put to the test and that their conviction and patience will be tested over the coming weeks to months. Volatility also picked up in derivatives markets. According to CoinGlass, roughly $122 million in long positions and $26 million in short positions were liquidated over the past hour. Total liquidations over the past 24 hours reached about $663 million. Technical indicators are also weighing on sentiment. Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) fell to around 30, the conventional oversold threshold. During the 2022 bear market, when the RSI approached this level, Bitcoin fell an additional roughly 20%; a simple extrapolation has led some to argue there is room for further downside toward the $60,000 level. Bitcoin’s weakness spread across the broader market. Ethereum slipped below $2,200, falling more than 9% in a day, while Solana dropped more than 7% below $100. XRP fell 6.6% to about $1.52, and among the top 25 tokens by market cap, Canton plunged more than 10% to around $0.17. Crypto-related stocks also moved lower. Coinbase shares fell more than 6%, and Strategy, a Bitcoin-holding company, slid more than 8%. Terawulf, however, extended gains on news of an artificial intelligence infrastructure acquisition. Some in the market say concerns about a U.S. government shutdown and broader macro uncertainty are weighing on risk assets overall. Still, the prior day saw net inflows of $561.90 million into spot Bitcoin ETFs, halting a two-week streak of outflows—an element seen as a near-term variable to watch.

Vitalik Buterin, a co-founder of Ethereum, has formally called for a shift in Ethereum’s roadmap, saying it needs to move away from its existing scaling strategy centered on layer-2 (L2) networks. According to Decrypt on the 4th (local time), Buterin wrote on X that “Ethereum now needs a new path,” adding that “excessive reliance on L2s no longer aligns with the original vision.” Ethereum has long treated L2s as its core solution for scaling transaction throughput while preserving security and decentralization. A number of L2s—including Base, Polygon, Arbitrum and Optimism—have been built atop the mainnet, placing them at the heart of the scaling strategy. However, Buterin said Ethereum mainnet scaling has already reached a sufficient level. At the same time, he noted that some L2 networks are sacrificing decentralization and argued they should not be regarded as Ethereum’s official scaling path or as “brand shards.” “There are L2s that lack either the will or the ability to meet the conditions required of a true brand shard,” Buterin said. “Some have even publicly stated an intention to remain at Stage 1—not only for technical reasons but also because they believe they must retain ultimate control to address regulatory requirements.” Under Buterin’s L2 stage framework, Stage 1 denotes a state with limited safeguards in terms of security and decentralization, while Stage 2 refers to a state in which operations and security are fully decentralized. He assessed that many L2s are hesitant to transition to Stage 2. Buterin therefore argued that users and developers should not automatically view L2s as an extension of Ethereum, but should differentiate among networks based on their characteristics and trade-offs. Some L2s, he said, should be seen as separate networks that offer other benefits in place of security or decentralization. He also urged L2 developers to change course. “It is no longer sufficient for L2s to be described simply as ‘scaling Ethereum,’” he said, stressing that each must clearly present its unique value proposition. The remarks are seen as potentially having a significant impact on positioning and marketing strategies across the broader L2 ecosystem.

As signs emerge that US credit conditions are tightening rapidly, analysts say it will be difficult for Bitcoin’s correction phase to conclude in the near term. The view is that the timing of a rebound could be pushed back, given that in past episodes Bitcoin tended to form a bottom only after stress in credit markets began to intensify. According to Cointelegraph on the 3rd (local time), Bitcoin fell intraday to below $73,000, marking its lowest level of the year. As volatility increases, US macro indicators are simultaneously signaling that tightening pressure in credit markets is building. The market is closely watching the ICE BofA US Corporate Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS) as a key indicator. The metric represents the extra yield investors demand to hold corporate bonds over US Treasuries; in general, a widening spread indicates heightened risk aversion in credit markets. The figure currently stands at 0.75, remaining at its lowest level since 1998. This compression in credit spreads is seen as being at odds with the US fiscal backdrop. US government debt reached $38.5 trillion as of the end of January, and the 10-year US Treasury yield rose again to around 4.28%. The assessment is that credit risk is not being sufficiently priced in while borrowing costs remain elevated. Looking at past Bitcoin cycles, a recurring pattern has been that local bottoms formed with a lag of roughly three to six months after credit spreads began to widen. Since Bitcoin corrections in 2018, 2020 and 2022 all ended only after credit-market tightening moved first, the current phase is also seen as likely to be prolonged. On-chain indicators are showing both short-term selling pressure and signs of a slowdown in long-term selling. While whales and mid-term holders have recently stepped up moves to transfer Bitcoin to exchanges, the SOPR indicator fell to around 1, suggesting that long-term holders’ capacity for additional selling is diminishing. Some in the market also say that if rising US Treasury yields translate into greater pressure on credit markets, Bitcoin’s full-fledged accumulation window could be pushed into the second half of the year.