Doohyun Hwang

XRP (XRP) spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) made an impressive debut on Wall Street. On the 13th (local time), The Block reported that Canary Capital's XRP spot ETF 'XRPC' recorded total trading volume of $58 million on its first trading day. It is the largest first-day volume among roughly 900 ETFs launched this year. The previous high for the year was held by Bitwise's Solana ETF (BSOL) at $57 million. BSOL also posted $72 million in trading volume on its second day after launch, continuing its 'success.' Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg's senior ETF analyst, said, "XRPC saw $26 million executed within the first hour of trading," adding, "Of the ETFs launched this year, only XRPC and BSOL delivered overwhelming results, and they are separated from 3rd place by more than $20 million." Matt Hogan, Bitwise's Chief Investment Officer (CIO), said, "What determines ETF success is not 'broad appeal' but a 'strong fandom'," adding, "If 20% of people passionately like a particular asset, it creates stronger demand than if 80% like it lukewarmly." Meanwhile, after the U.S. government shutdown ended, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) reorganized its new listing procedures, and multiple crypto asset (cryptocurrency) spot ETFs are awaiting approval. The Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) recently listed five XRP spot ETFs in the 'active and pre-launch' category. However, price action is weak. Concerns have grown over the U.S. Federal Reserve's (Fed) 'opaque rate decisions.' On the day, XRP is trading in the $2.3 range in the Binance Tether (USDT) market, down about 3% from the previous day.

Market uncertainty has surged as a prolonged U.S. federal government shutdown has prevented the Federal Reserve (Fed) from obtaining key economic indicators. With investor sentiment shaken, New York stocks plunged across the board, and Bitcoin (BTC) fell below the $100,000 level again, expanding a corrective phase across risky assets. On the 13th (local time), the market was mainly triggered by a reduced likelihood of a rate cut in December. According to Bloomberg, the probability of a December rate cut priced into swap markets plunged from 72% a week ago to around 50%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently drew a line saying, "we cannot be certain about additional cuts," and the shutdown has halted entire sets of key economic indicators such as employment and inflation, leaving the Fed unable to provide policy guidance and creating an "in-the-dark" period, which has become a burden. As policy uncertainty deepened, investors moved quickly to reduce risk exposure. This accelerated Bitcoin's decline. The overlap of Fed policy uncertainty, dollar strength, and risk-off sentiment weakened demand that had been relatively resilient. That day, Bitcoin slid to $98,000 intraday on Binance's Tether (USDT) market, marking its lowest level in about five months since June 22 ($98,200). It later recovered some losses to return above $100,000 after buy flows, but market volatility remains elevated. Market experts warned that a prolonged shutdown could further increase uncertainty around risky assets. An industry source said, "If the government shutdown continues, the Fed will have to make decisions at the December meeting without sufficient data," adding, "Risk assets including Bitcoin could face another phase of increased volatility for the time being." Barclays also pointed out a weakening of investor sentiment, saying, "Retail trading activity has clearly decreased after the AI rally." On the stock market, "momentum stocks," which had driven the bull market, took the biggest hit. Bank of America's (BofA) momentum basket plunged 4.7%, recording its largest drop since April. AI bellwethers such as NVIDIA, Broadcom, and Palantir saw 3–6% corrections, and related names like Astera Labs and SanDisk also fell in unison. Global financial institutions including DBS and Morgan Stanley had already warned that "AI valuations are showing signs of overheating." Names favored by retail investors suffered larger declines. Citigroup's "Retail Favorites" basket, which includes Tesla, SoFi, and Riot Platforms, plunged 6%, marking its biggest drop since April. Meme stock ETFs and leveraged ETFs of bitcoin mining firms posted losses in the 10–20% range, reflecting a sharp cooling of retail buying.

Institutionalization of crypto assets raises demand for privacy coins Zcash surges… evaluated as the 'encrypted Bitcoin' Industry notes "last 1000x profit opportunity" Responding with 'selective privacy' amid regulatory risks The privacy coin Zcash (ZEC) has been drawing market attention as it shows a sharp rally. Industry participants analyze that this recent surge is not merely speculative upside but signifies the return of a 'privacy narrative.' They assess that demand for privacy is re-emerging as crypto markets move toward institutionalization. Zcash has risen about 700% on Binance's Tether (USDT) market since last September. Over the same period, the price jumped from $74 to over $700, and market capitalization entered the global top 20. The cumulative rise this year has exceeded 1000%. After touching $750 intraday on the 7th, Zcash was trading in the $470 range on Binance at 8:40 p.m. (local time) on the 11th. Digital asset solutions firm Galaxy said, "Zcash has risen nearly eightfold since September," and assessed that "after years of underperformance, its rise has brought privacy features back to the center of the market." Beyond transparency limits... "Zcash, the 'encrypted Bitcoin'" Satoshi Nakamoto, the Bitcoin developer, acknowledged Bitcoin's privacy limitations in a forum 15 years ago. Bitcoin (BTC), as a trustless digital currency, has transparency as an advantage, but as institutionalization progresses it faces the limitation of lacking privacy. Satoshi Nakamoto also recognized the structural limitation that Bitcoin's anonymity is limited, saying all transaction records are publicly visible. Zcash was created to address this problem. Though derived (forked) from Bitcoin's code, it was designed to keep sender/receiver and amount completely private rather than making transaction information public. The core is zero-knowledge SNARKs (zk-SNARKs) technology. It's a cryptographic method that proves a transaction is valid without revealing transaction details — it proves only that the right to transact exists while hiding specific details. In this process, a user can mathematically prove they have sufficient balance and that no double-spending occurred. If another privacy coin, Monero (XMR), uses ring signatures as a probabilistic obfuscation method that mixes multiple senders, Zcash is seen as having higher technical reliability because it secures privacy through mathematical proofs. CoinDesk Research explained that "SNARKs are like a sealed certificate," likening it to presenting an accountant-stamped envelope proving income above a threshold instead of showing the payroll directly. Zcash continues to roll out upgrades. Last year it implemented 'NU6' to enhance fund management transparency, and this year it plans to introduce 'Project Tachyon' to increase transaction processing speed. Galaxy evaluated, "Tachyon is an scalability upgrade comparable to Solana's Firedancer." Its economic structure is also similar to Bitcoin. Total issuance is capped at 21 million, and it follows a halving structure where block rewards are halved every four years. After the recent November halving, block rewards decreased to 1.5625 ZEC, and the inflation rate fell to about 3.5%. Part of the mining rewards is allocated to a community fund, with developers, foundation, and community jointly managing network development. CoinDesk Research analyzed that "Zcash is an 'encrypted Bitcoin' with solid privacy technology," and "Zcash is evolving into a new monetary model that combines privacy and reliability." Murt Mumtaz, CEO of Helius, said, "Bitcoin secured legality, Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) secured scalability," adding, "the remaining final puzzle is privacy." He stated, "Zcash is the first project to bring zero-knowledge proofs to practical use, and now, with the maturity of the technology and market demand coinciding, this is the turning point for the spread of privacy finance," forecasting that "privacy coins could become assets where crypto investors can expect more than 1000x returns for the last time." Why 'privacy' now Analysts say Zcash's rally reflects not just a price event but a cultural shift in the crypto industry. They argue that the market, which had been moving from decentralization toward institutionalization, is returning to the origin point of 'privacy.' According to Andreessen Horowitz (a16z)'s recently published '2025 Crypto Report,' Google search interest in privacy-related terms has surged this year. The industry views this phenomenon not as a mere tech trend but as a signal that users are beginning to recognize privacy again as a core value of crypto assets. Galaxy said, "Institutionalization of crypto accelerated after approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs," adding, "While institutional capital poured in, criticism has grown that Bitcoin is now controlled by centralized custodians." It continued, "Privacy coin investors are reverting to cypherpunk principles in an era where on-chain surveillance has become commonplace," and assessed that "Zcash's rise symbolizes the revival of 'privacy value' long neglected by the industry." Recent U.S. court cases are also cited as factors reinforcing this movement. On the 7th, Kion Rodriguez, co-developer of the Bitcoin privacy wallet 'Samourai Wallet,' was sentenced to five years in prison on charges of operating an unlicensed money transmission business. This was the maximum possible sentence and was reportedly requested by the Trump administration's Department of Justice. Crypto media Decrypt analyzed, "The ruling appears to have strengthened social consensus for privacy protection," and said, "Zcash's surge is the market reflecting that trend." Regulatory risk remains… seeking a breakthrough with 'selective privacy' However, the biggest risk for privacy coins remains regulation. They directly clash with international regulatory trends aiming to ensure transaction traceability such as Know Your Customer (KYC) and Anti-Money Laundering (AML) rules. The European Union (EU) plans to fully ban the use of privacy coins on regulated platforms by 2027 through the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation. The European Commission classified assets that cannot be traced for transactions as contrary to financial transparency principles and labeled privacy-centric coins as high-risk assets. Accordingly, exchanges and service providers (CASPs) within Europe will be prohibited from listing privacy coins or offering them as payment methods. Domestically, transactions in privacy coins are also impossible under the Act on Reporting and Use of Certain Financial Transaction Information. The Financial Services Commission classified "crypto assets whose transaction records are difficult to trace and pose a high risk of money laundering" as 'dark coins' and banned virtual asset service providers from handling them. In practice, major domestic exchanges suspended support three years ago when Litecoin (LTC) implemented the MimbleWimble upgrade to strengthen privacy features. Neobank OneSave said, "Privacy coins are technically innovative, but if they fail to meet AML·KYC requirements, their use within the institutional framework is difficult," advising, "Startups should carefully review legal consistency when integrating privacy assets into payroll or payment systems." Accordingly, Zcash and Litecoin adopted a 'selective privacy structure.' Zcash operates transparent addresses and shielded addresses in parallel to respond to regulation, while Litecoin allows users to choose privacy features during transactions. Global crypto exchange Bitget said, "Zcash has gained regulatory flexibility by adopting optional privacy protections," and assessed, "This gives it a favorable position over other privacy coins. Zcash can offer a valuable opportunity to protect itself from a future where financial information is under threat."

'Final countdown' to shutdown end after U.S. Senate agreement Crypto market rebounds on hopes of liquidity recovery "Bitcoin could rally in the short term" The U.S. federal government shutdown, which lasted 40 days, has effectively entered an end phase. As concerns about liquidity shortages caused by the prolonged shutdown eased, the weak crypto (cryptocurrency) market collectively turned to a rebound. On the 9th (local time), on Binance Tether (USDT) market, Bitcoin (BTC) was $106,100, about 5% higher than the previous day. Ethereum (ETH) was $3,619.66, up 6.88%, and XRP was $2.46, surging 8.59%. Binance Coin (BNB) was $1,009.25, up 2.18%; Solana (SOL) was $167.21, up 6.21%; and Cardano (ADA) was $0.5873, up 5.61% respectively. Seok-mun Jeong, director of the Presto Research Center, analyzed, "The shutdown froze federal government spending and adversely affected risky assets such as crypto," adding, "If these constraints are lifted with the end of the shutdown, it would be positive for Bitcoin's price." Senate agrees on temporary spending plan…'Final countdown' to shutdown end That day, the U.S. Senate passed the first step to process a temporary spending measure (CR·Continuing Resolution) to end the shutdown—the 'cloture vote' to end a filibuster—by 60 votes in favor and 40 against. With this vote, the Senate will begin the final voting procedure in a plenary session, which is scheduled to take place within 30 hours. The bill passed by the Senate must go through House consideration and President Donald Trump's signature for the shutdown to be officially over. The agreement is a bipartisan fiscal deal crafted by eight centrist Democratic senators in consultation with Republicans and the White House. The bill guarantees funding for key agencies such as military facilities, the Department of Veterans Affairs, the Department of Agriculture, and the legislative branch through September 30, 2026, and allows other government sectors to operate temporarily until January 30 next year. It also includes provisions to retain more than 4,000 federal employees who were subject to layoffs due to the shutdown and to prevent the Trump administration from carrying out additional staff cuts. Previously, Senate Democrats had blocked the same House-passed measure 14 times, but pressure to restart grew, particularly from centrist and retiring members. In particular, burdens from the prolonged shutdown spread when, on November 1, funding for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) ran out and air traffic controller shortages led to numerous flight delays at major airports. Republican Senate Whip John Thune said, "It is still unclear when the Senate will hold the final vote," adding, "We hope it will pass early this week." The Senate scheduled a meeting for the final vote on the 11th. Thune said, "Today's vote went well," and added, "I hope we can complete the floor procedures tomorrow and send it to the House. This will require everyone's cooperation." However, it may take days for the shutdown to fully end. Although the agreement passed in the Senate, the voting schedule could be delayed if even a single senator objects to proceeding. Democratic opposition is also strong. In particular, they criticize that the provision to extend Affordable Care Act tax credits is excluded from this agreement. House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries said, "The cost-of-living burden for Americans is too great," adding, "The spending bill pushed by Republicans ignores the extension of Obamacare tax credits, so Democrats cannot support it." He added, "We will fight to the end in the House to end the Republicans' seven-week tax-wasting vacation." Representative Greg Casar also criticized, "An agreement that fails to reduce medical costs is a betrayal of the American people," saying, "Republicans are pursuing cuts to healthcare. Relying on mere verbal promises is not compromise but surrender." Money flows as shutdown ends... "Could trigger a Bitcoin rally" The industry expects that if U.S. government operations normalize and the budget stalled in Congress passes, large-scale liquidity will be supplied to the crypto market. As of the 6th, the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) balance reached $954 billion. The TGA is the cash account at the Federal Reserve where the U.S. Treasury deposits government funds. With the shutdown halting budget processing, various expenditures were blocked and these funds were tied up in the TGA. If the shutdown is lifted, budgets, salaries, subsidies, insurance payments, and public contract payments that had been frozen will be released simultaneously. In this process, funds move to the private sector, expanding market liquidity. Moreover, under the Fed's accounting structure, the TGA is classified as "money the Fed owes the government." When the government spends from the TGA, the Fed's liabilities decrease. To balance its assets (liabilities + capital), the Fed increases "bank reserves," which are recognized as liabilities. Bank reserves are a sort of emergency fund that commercial banks deposit at the Fed. When reserves increase, banks' lending capacity expands and more funds are supplied to businesses and individuals. As a result, money flowing into the market is more likely to flow into risky assets such as stocks and cryptocurrencies. Analysts at BitMEX said, "During the shutdown, the TGA balance neared $1 trillion, absorbing about $700 billion of market funds," and analyzed, "As a result, the short-term funding market tightened and liquidity for risky assets was depleted." They added, "This shutdown lift will likely trigger a large-scale liquidity snapback," and "Combined with Bitcoin's seasonal strength at year-end, it is highly likely to spark a short-term rally." Arthur Hayes, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of Maelstrom, also said, "After the U.S. raised the debt limit in July, the TGA absorbed liquidity, causing Bitcoin and market liquidity to fall by 5% and 8% respectively," and forecasted, "When the shutdown ends, the TGA will decrease and dollar liquidity will increase again, leading Bitcoin to rebound."

In the US spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) market, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) ETFs both turned to net inflows in just one day. With buying by major institutions recovering, market sentiment, which had been in a recent correction phase, appears somewhat stabilized. On the 6th (local time), according to data from TraderT, US-traded Bitcoin spot ETFs saw total net inflows of 220.86 million dollars. BlackRock's IBIT attracted 93.28 million dollars, Fidelity's FBTC 61.64 million dollars, Ark Invest's ARKB 60.44 million dollars, and Bitwise's BITB 5.5 million dollars, each helping drive the upward trend. Ethereum spot ETFs also recorded net inflows of 9.09 million dollars on the same day. BlackRock's ETHA received 4.59 million dollars, Fidelity's FETH 4.95 million dollars, and Bitwise's ETHW 3.08 million dollars. Meanwhile, Grayscale's ETHE saw 3.53 million dollars flow out.

Tools for Humanity (TFH), developer of World (WLD), said on the 7th that its privacy-centered identity verification technology 'World ID' means website age verification no longer needs to rely on ID submission. Currently, major platforms worldwide require users to upload ID citing the protection of minors. But TFH pointed out that this method 'collects user information on a large scale and can be abused for hacking and identity theft.' In fact, major game platforms, social networks, and adult content sites already store government-issued IDs, and this has emerged as a new security threat. 'World ID' proposed by TFH is based on Proof of Human technology. Users can prove they are adults without uploading IDs, and personal information is not stored on servers in the process. Using Zero-Knowledge Proof (ZKP) technology, only information that 'meets the age criteria' is conveyed to platforms, and name, address, etc. are not transmitted externally. TFH explained, "World ID removed the data collection process from the design stage," adding, "it proves a user's identity through on-device verification alone, and platforms do not hold any sensitive information." There are real cases. Global dating app operator Match Group recently adopted World ID so users can complete age verification without submitting personal information. TFH expects this technology to spread across games, social media, and content platforms in the future. Park Sang-wook, head of TFH's Korea branch, said, "Existing age verification systems, contrary to the purpose of protecting minors, excessively demand users' personal information," adding, "now the core of technological competition should be not how much data is collected, but how little can be collected while still securing trust." He added, "World ID is a technology that can prove age and unique humanity without exposing a person's identity or date of birth," and "it presents a new authentication paradigm premised on privacy."

Bitwise appears to have entered full-scale procedures to list a Dogecoin (DOGE) spot exchange-traded fund (ETF). On the 6th (local time), Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg's senior ETF analyst, said on his X, "Bitwise appears to be conducting an '8(a) procedure' for a Dogecoin spot ETF," and "this means it would take effect in about 20 days unless there is separate intervention." Meanwhile, Dogecoin is trading at $0.164 on the Binance Tether (USDT) market, down 1.6% from the previous day.

Spread of aftereffects from Stream Finance suspension of deposits and withdrawals Largest capital outflow since the Luna incident "DeFi vulnerabilities exposed... may transfer to exchanges" Concerns about a liquidity crisis caused by large-scale liquidations are spreading across the decentralized finance (DeFi) market. Some major protocols have suspended deposits and withdrawals, and stablecoin outflows have surged, causing instability across the market. The trigger for this incident was Stream Finance's sudden suspension of deposits and withdrawals on the 3rd (local time). This is reported to be the aftermath of an external fund manager's operational loss (about 93 million dollars) that occurred on the 11th of last month amid increased market volatility. The industry warns that if the Stream incident spreads across DeFi, it could escalate into a system risk of up to 8 billion dollars. DeFi research firm Yields and More said in a report, "Stream Finance's direct debt exposure amounts to up to 285 million dollars," diagnosing that "this is not a single protocol issue but shows a complex contagion structure across the DeFi ecosystem." The hardest hit is Elixir, one of Stream Finance's major lenders. Elixir lent Stream Finance up to 68 million dollars worth of USDC, which corresponds to about 65% of its total holdings of the stablecoin deUSD. Another partner, RE7 Labs, also suffered losses. RE7 accepted Stream Finance-related assets (xUSD, Elixir token 'ELX', etc.) as collateral in vaults across several lending protocols, leaving it exposed to the risk of non-performing loans amounting to millions of dollars. The broader spread is occurring through a "double collateral" structure. Stream Finance's 'Staking Stream USD (xUSD)' is staked in major lending protocols such as Euler, Silo, and Morpho, and these protocols are in turn connected to other protocols. In such a web-like financial structure, industry analysis says the failure of a single node can quickly transfer to other protocols. Yields and More warned, "The risks revealed by the liquidation event on October 11 have expanded far beyond Stream Finance," adding, "There will be many additional liquidity pools and protocols affected." According to StableWatch, 1 billion dollars flowed out of yield-bearing stablecoins last week. This is the largest scale since the 2022 Terra–Luna incident. Stream Finance's xUSD recorded a 93 million dollars loss, and Coinshift's csUSDL saw deposits (TVL) plunge 95% to 1.92 million dollars. Elixir's deUSD and sdeUSD are also experiencing liquidity shortages. In the market, views are spreading that this is not a simple temporary liquidity shortage but a structural vulnerability of the DeFi ecosystem. An industry source warned, "The currently revealed 100 million dollars loss may be the tip of the iceberg," adding, "Transparency, collateral structure, and leverage management in the DeFi market will be key to future crisis response." David Bailey, chairman of Bitcoin Magazine, pointed out, "A credit crisis that started in the DeFi lending sector could spread into a liquidity crisis across the crypto asset market," noting, "If collateral shortfalls or hedge failures occur, there is also a possibility that the crisis could transfer from DeFi to centralized finance (CeFi)." He added, "At this point, risks should be minimized and preparations should be made for additional cascading liquidation events."

The global virtual asset (cryptocurrency) lending market continued its upward trend in the third quarter and reached an all-time high. According to Bloomberg on the 6th (local time), as of the end of September global virtual asset lending totaled $73.6 billion. This surpasses the previous record of $69.4 billion recorded in the fourth quarter of 2021. It is roughly three times the amount in the first quarter of this year (about $25 billion). Galaxy Digital said, "The recovery in the virtual asset lending sector accelerated after the approval of the U.S. bitcoin spot ETF," and added, "With a strengthened pro-crypto stance in the second term of the Donald Trump administration, loan demand has steadily increased." Virtual asset lending is considered a representative market indicator used by individual investors to increase leverage or boost returns, and by institutional traders or hedge funds to secure short-term liquidity. Recently, the "digital asset treasury management (DAT)" model, in which companies borrow cash against their held virtual assets as collateral to generate returns, has also been spreading. However, Bitcoin has fallen more than 20% in recent weeks, raising market tensions. This resembles the situation at the end of 2021 when, just after the lending market peaked, a series of major bankruptcies and scandals erupted and the cryptocurrency market collapsed. At that time, major lending platforms such as Celsius, BlockFi, and Voyager collapsed in succession.

Global Web3 infrastructure company KGeN announced on the 7th that it has officially launched the next-generation digital identity protocol 'VeriFi'. VeriFi is a digital identity solution that builds trust and transparency based on actual user behavioral data without relying on traditional customer identity verification (KYC) documents. As a digital identity and reputation layer for the Web3 ecosystem, it connects artificial intelligence (AI) and decentralized finance (DeFi) applications with verified users to address fake accounts and low-quality traffic. As of last September, VeriFi's total number of users surpassed 41.9 million, and monthly active users (MAU) exceeded 6.7 million. It has also secured more than 200 paid partners within the AI and DeFi ecosystems, and its annualized revenue reached 51.1 million dollars. KGeN currently operates in more than 60 countries. It also receives support from major global investors such as Accel, Prosus Ventures, Jump Capital, the Aptos Foundation, and Polygon. KGeN said, "We are expanding the ecosystem centered on transparency and Verified Participation," and added, "We will expand the oracle network to more than 100 to strengthen the integrity of data and verification accuracy within our proprietary framework 'POGE (Proof of Genuine Engagement)'."

Fintech company Block, led by Twitter founder Jack Dorsey, recorded $1.97 billion in revenue from its Bitcoin (BTC) business in Q3 this year. This is about an 18% decrease compared with the same period last year ($2.4 billion). In a letter to shareholders on the 6th (local time), Block CEO Jack Dorsey said Bitcoin remains Block's second-largest source of revenue, accounting for a significant portion of total revenue of $6.11 billion. However, revenue declined year over year due to reduced market trading volume and increased price volatility. Bitcoin-related costs also fell year over year to $1.89 billion, but the gross margin for the Bitcoin business showed a slight decline. According to the letter, Block currently holds 8780 bitcoins, up from 8485 at the beginning of the year. However, revaluation losses on holdings amounted to $59 million for the quarter and $178 million year to date. CEO Jack Dorsey emphasized, "Bitcoin is a core growth pillar for Block," saying, "we are expanding an ecosystem that can materially utilize Bitcoin across payment networks and services." Meanwhile, in October Block launched a retail Bitcoin payment tool and a dedicated wallet service to expand Bitcoin payment infrastructure. Earlier this year, it paid a $40 million settlement to the New York Department of Financial Services (NYDFS) over AML deficiencies in part of its Bitcoin business.

Tether continues its Bitcoin (BTC) accumulation. On the 6th (local time), according to Onchain Lens, Tether recently bought an additional 961 Bitcoin. This amounts to about $97,340,000. Tether also purchased about 8,889 Bitcoin (about $1,000,000,000) on September 30. Tether currently holds 87,290 Bitcoin, with a total value of $8,840,000,000. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is trading in the $100,800 range on the Binance Tether (USDT) market, down 2.5% from the previous day.

Investor sentiment weakens amid shutdown and AI rally slowdown Despite the bear market, industry says "it will rebound soon" Bitcoin (BTC) ultimately failed to hold the $100,000 level. A prolonged U.S. federal government shutdown and a slowdown in the artificial intelligence (AI) rally affected the crypto asset (cryptocurrency) market. However, the market still expects a possible year-end rebound based on continued exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows, institutional buying, and expectations of increased liquidity. On the 4th (local time), based on Binance Tether (USDT) markets, Bitcoin fell intraday to $98,944, dropping below the $100,000 level for the first time since June. This is about 21% lower than the record high ($126,200) recorded last month. Bitcoin has partially recovered losses and is currently trading in the $102,000 range. The background to this decline has been attributed to concerns over frozen market liquidity due to the prolonged U.S. federal government shutdown. The U.S. federal government saw a temporary budget bill rejected that day, effectively extending the shutdown to a new record (35 days). In addition, the 'bubble theory' around the AI-led stock rally also had an impact. CNBC reported that "major crypto assets share the same investor base as AI-related stocks, so if one side wobbles, the other tends to move in tandem." As AI investment sentiment weakened, selling spread across risk assets including Bitcoin. However, the industry remains optimistic that Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high as early as year-end. Analyses note continued inflows of institutional funds and that the market may already be "near the bottom." Matt Hogan, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) at Bitwise, said, "Retail investors have entered an extreme fear zone, but this could be a sign that the bottom is near," and added, "Institutions and financial advisers still maintain interest in Bitcoin, and ETF inflows remain steady." He said, "While leveraged liquidations and retail investor departures continue, the institution-centered market still maintains a bullish trend," and forecasted, "It is highly possible that Bitcoin will record a new all-time high by year-end. Recovery to the $125,000–$130,000 range is a realistic target." Jerry O'Shea, Global Market Insights Manager at Hashdex, explained, "Expectations that further rate cuts this year are unlikely, along with concerns about tariffs and an overvalued AI stock market, led to a broad market decline," and added, "$100,000 is a psychological support level, but even if it is breached, the long-term investment thesis for Bitcoin remains valid." He continued, "ETF inflows and the trend of increased corporate adoption of crypto assets are continuing strongly. If the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) ends quantitative tightening (QT) and expands liquidity, Bitcoin is likely to test new all-time highs again within the coming months," he added. Arthur Hayes, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) at Maelstrom, also assessed that the Fed's 'stealth quantitative easing (stealth QE)' could reignite a Bitcoin bull market. CIO Hayes said, "Stealth QE is about to begin," and added, "If current short-term money market tensions continue and government bond issuance increases exponentially, the Fed's short-term lending facility (SRF) balance will inevitably rise." He said, "If the SRF balance increases, global dollar liquidity will expand, which could spark a rise in Bitcoin," and warned, "Some investors are mistakenly selling, thinking the current bear market is the top." He also said, "The market will remain unstable until the U.S. government shutdown ends, but if QE begins and liquidity is unleashed, the Bitcoin bull market will reignite."

US Fed hawkish signals lower expectations for rate cuts↓ Prolonged shutdown spreads liquidity squeeze·risk-off "100,000-dollar test… possibility of a year-end rebound" Bitcoin (BTC) is seeing intensified declines. A combination of reduced expectations for rate cuts following hawkish remarks from the US Federal Reserve (Fed), a prolonged US federal government shutdown, and large-scale liquidations of long (buy) positions has sharply weakened investor sentiment. On the 3rd (local time), based on the Binance Tether (USDT) market, Bitcoin fell 2.5% from the previous day to as low as 104,200 dollars. The 105,000-dollar level was breached for the first time in 18 days since the 17th of last month. Bitcoin is currently trading around 104,610 dollars. Rate cut expectations dashed and shutdown prolonged…'liquidity fear' spreads The immediate cause of the decline is attributed to a series of hawkish remarks from Fed officials. Because investors had increased exposure to risk assets based on hopes for rate cuts, the change in the Fed's signals triggered a rapid market-wide adjustment. Austan Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and considered a close ally of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, said, "The bar to implement a rate cut at the December meeting is much higher than before. Inflation remains above target, so premature easing should be avoided," adding, "While rates could be lower in the long term, it is necessary to maintain a tightening stance for the time being." Fed Governor Lisa Cook also said the same day, "Nothing has been decided yet," and noted, "Key data releases have been delayed due to the shutdown, making it difficult to hasten monetary policy decisions." Earlier, Chair Powell had also underlined that "an additional rate cut in December is not a foregone conclusion." As the Fed's internal cautious stance strengthened, expectations for rate cuts within the year cooled rapidly and selling spread across risk assets. Economic uncertainty stemming from the prolonged US federal government shutdown has further prompted investors to avoid risk assets. With budget negotiations between Democrats and Republicans repeatedly failing, the federal government has been paralyzed for 35 days. If the situation extends past the 5th, it is expected to become the longest shutdown in US history. The Senate is scheduled to hold its 14th vote today (November 4). The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) warned, "If the shutdown lasts four weeks, GDP growth could fall by 1% percentage point, and if it continues for six weeks, it could fall by 2% percentage points," adding, "Economic losses could reach up to 14 billion dollars." On-chain data also reflect this macroeconomic uncertainty. Investors are withdrawing funds from the crypto market. Blockchain analytics platform CryptoQuant said, "The US fiscal paralysis is not merely budget uncertainty but is leading to a 'freeze in market liquidity,'" adding, "This phenomenon has already begun to show up in Bitcoin network indicators." In fact, Bitcoin exchange holdings increased for the first time in six weeks. This indicates investors are moving coins back to exchanges, generally interpreted as a signal that precedes profit-taking or risk reduction. Conversely, miners' Bitcoin holdings have fallen to their lowest level since mid-last year. Analysts attribute this to the suspension of energy subsidies and tax breaks due to the shutdown, leading miners to sell holdings to cover operating costs. "100,000-dollar level at risk" vs "will rebound by year-end" Liquidation pressure in the market also intensified the decline. According to CoinGlass data, positions worth 128,000,000 dollars were liquidated across the network on the 3rd, of which 123,000,000 dollars were long (buy) positions. The unwinding of overheated long positions increased short-term downward pressure. Technical indicators also showed continued bearish signals. Katie Stockton, founder of Fairlead Strategies, warned, "Bitcoin has fallen below the 200-day moving average (109,800 dollars). This is a key indicator for gauging the long-term trend and a major support level," adding, "A technical correction could continue for several weeks. Bitcoin's next support level is 94,200 dollars." However, a recovery is seen as possible in the medium to long term. CoinShares said, "With the prolonged shutdown and worsening on-chain liquidity acting together, a short-term correction in Bitcoin is unavoidable," and added, "If institutional inflows resume, the medium- to long-term trend could return to recovery." Stockton also said, "There remains upside potential to 134,500 dollars in the long term." Rachel Lin, CEO of SynFutures, said, "Cautious optimism should be maintained in November," adding, "Bitcoin may trade sideways in early November, but if a psychological turning point occurs, a rebound could be triggered." She continued, "The current decline appears to be a correction. Long-term investors are still buying, and ETF inflows remain steady," forecasting, "Bitcoin could rise as high as 150,000 dollars by the end of the year."

First personal investment disclosed since CEO resignation Whale investors are betting on short positions "Technology is a strength, ownership concentration is a risk" Changpeng Zhao (Changpeng Zhao·CZ), the founder of Binance, revealed he directly purchased tokens of the decentralized derivatives exchange 'Aster (Aster, ASTER)', sending the market into turmoil. On the 2nd (local time), Zhao disclosed on his X, "I bought Aster with my own money today. I'm not a trader. I tend to buy and hold," and revealed he purchased about $2.5 million (about ₩3.57 billion) worth of Aster. Immediately after the remark, Aster, which had been $0.96 on the Binance Tether (USDT) market, surged 33.5% in one day to record an intraday high of $1.26. After returning some of the gains, Aster is trading at around $1.07 as of this report. Aster has long attracted attention for its links to Binance. Former Binance employees occupy key positions, and Yzi Labs, spun off from Binance's venture investment arm, holds a minority stake. Zhao has also stated, "I serve as a product and technical advisor for Aster." However, this is the first time he has publicly revealed the purchase of Aster. It is also the first time he has announced a personal investment publicly since buying Binance Coin (BNB) eight years ago. The market interprets this as a move by Zhao to begin fully regaining his influence in the industry after his pardon. Crypto asset analyst AB Kuai Dong said, "This purchase is only a very small portion of his personal funds. He may expand additional investments into BNB Chain-based infrastructure projects in the future," and added, "He currently holds notable influence in the market, and each of his public statements directly affects market sentiment." However, opinions on the rally are mixed. According to data from blockchain analytics platform Lookonchain, some large investors are taking short positions on Aster, betting on a decline. One trader recently increased Aster short positions to 42.97 million tokens, amounting to about $52.8 million. The liquidation price is around $2. Another trader holds 15.3 million (about $19.1 million) Aster in short positions, with a liquidation price calculated at $2.11. Aster is a decentralized derivatives exchange that was formed late last year through the merger of Astherus and APX Finance. It is characterized by integrating trading and revenue-generation structures into one within the decentralized finance (DeFi) space. Users can use assets that earn yields through staking (deposit) as collateral for perpetual contract trading, which is seen as addressing inefficient capital utilization. Currently, Aster supports major networks such as BNB Chain, Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Arbitrum (ARB), and also allows stock-based perpetual contract trading. Its technical architecture is also cited as a strength. Aster has adopted an 'off-chain orderbook+on-chain settlement' approach, reducing trade finalization speed to 0.3 seconds. This outperforms competitor Hyperliquid's average speed (1.2 seconds). It also supports up to 1001x leverage trading and offers separate 'Simple mode' for beginners and 'Pro mode' for professional traders. Price data is supplied from major oracle networks such as Pyth, Chainlink, and Binance Oracle. However, the excessive concentration of token ownership in a few wallets is pointed out as a concern. According to global exchange OKX, the top six wallets currently hold 96% of Aster's circulating supply, and Binance is reported to hold about 95% of that. OKX stated, "Such concentration raises concerns about potential market manipulation and erosion of decentralization principles," adding, "While the technology and growth potential are noteworthy, investors should be mindful of ownership concentration and volatility risks."

Aria Protocol, an ecosystem project of Story (STORY), an intellectual property (IP) blockchain infrastructure, announced on the 31st that it will conduct a community sale of its native token 'ARIAIP' through Buidlpad's new token launch platform 'Vibe'. The sale will take place on Vibe, a token launch platform newly introduced by Buidlpad. Vibe is designed to support rapid fundraising cycles and small-scale projects, featuring lower participation barriers while maintaining regulatory compliance and transparency. Customer verification (KYC) and participation applications will be accepted from 3:00 PM on October 31 to 11:00 PM on November 2, and the contribution period will run from 11:00 AM on November 3 to 11:00 AM on November 4. Settlement and refunds are expected to be completed by 11:00 PM on November 6. The tokens to be sold amount to $600,000, equivalent to 1% of the total supply, and the sale will be limited to South Korea and certain regions of the European Union. The fully diluted valuation (FDV) was set at $60,000,000. In particular, a protection mechanism has been introduced that allows investors to receive refunds if the token price falls below the sale price within 30 days after listing. It is the first refundable model for an IP-based community sale. Aria is a project building blockchain-based IP financial infrastructure and was developed on the Story blockchain. It tokenizes intellectual property (IP) in the form of real-world asset (RWA) linkage, such as music, art, film, and broadcasting, enabling investors to trade IP and share royalty revenues. Aria's first IP RWA token 'APL' is based on copyright revenues from 48 hit songs by global artists including Justin Bieber, BLACKPINK, BTS, and Miley Cyrus. It was acquired for a total of $10,950,000 through StakeStone's LiquidityPad, with more than 4,000 wallets participating. Since launch, it has recorded over $14,000,000 in cumulative trading volume and a royalty buyback of $315,000, demonstrating high participation. Aria also introduced the 'IP RWA Standard' to structure IP assets as programmable assets. Core technologies include the 'Composable IP Token', which combines the strengths of ERC-20 and ERC-721, and the 'HAVEN Protocol' that supports IP-collateralized lending. Through these, Aria is expanding previously illiquid IP rights into liquid, collateralizable, and tradable revenue-generating assets, positioning itself as a blockchain-based IP infrastructure connecting creators, investors, and institutions. Aria is also preparing 'Aria PRIME', an institutional product based on a $100,000,000 Korean music IP portfolio, in cooperation with Contents Technologies. In addition, it will hold a global remix contest with Nana (formerly of After School). If users remix three of Nana's songs, the remixes will be tokenized and released on the Aria platform. A portion of remix revenues will be distributed as on-chain royalties to remixers and $APL holders. David Kostiner, Aria co-founder, said, "ARIAIP will accelerate the democratization of IP finance as a community coordination layer that supports the participation of investors, IP rights holders, and creators," adding, "Starting with this community sale, it will be an opportunity to open a new form of participatory IP economy in which the community directly participates in creation and monetization."

Brian Armstrong, Coinbase chief executive officer (CEO), showed a firm belief in Bitcoin (BTC). On the 30th (local time), Armstrong said on his X, "Coinbase believes Bitcoin will continue to rise," adding, "We will continue to buy Bitcoin." As of the third quarter of this year, Coinbase holds about 2,772 Bitcoins. This is about $304.5 million in value. Meanwhile, that day Bitcoin traded at $109,950 on the Binance Tether (USDT) market, up 0.8% from the previous day. Following hawkish comments from Jerome Powell, chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), and the impact of the U.S.-China summit that amounted to a 'tactical truce', Bitcoin, which at one point slipped to around $106,000, recovered most of the losses and even surpassed $110,000 intraday.

A large net outflow occurred in the U.S. spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) market. On the 30th (local time), according to Trader T's data, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a total outflow of $490.43 million in one day, recording net outflows for two consecutive trading days. The product with the largest outflow was BlackRock's IBIT, which saw $292.87 million flow out in one day. It was followed by ARK Invest's ARKB with $65.62 million, Bitwise's BITB with $55.15 million, and Fidelity's FBTC with $46.55 million in outflows. Meanwhile, Bitcoin rose 0.7% from the previous day on the Binance Tether (USDT) market, recovering the $110,000 level.

Net outflows occurred in the U.S. spot Ethereum (ETH) exchange-traded fund (ETF) market for two consecutive trading days. As major institutions continued selling, Ethereum's price also entered a downtrend. According to TraderT's data on the 30th (local time), U.S.-traded spot Ethereum ETFs saw a total net outflow of $186,560,000 in a single day. The largest outflow came from BlackRock's ETHA, which lost $120,250,000 in one day. It was followed by Bitwise's ETHW with $31,140,000 and Fidelity's FETH with $18,530,000 in net outflows, respectively. Under this institutional selling pressure, Ethereum turned lower, falling intraday to $3,800 on the Binance Tether (USDT) market.

Sam Bankman-Fried (Sam Bankman-Fried, SBF), former FTX chief executive officer (CEO), claimed that the customer funds of FTX, which is undergoing bankruptcy proceedings, "have never disappeared" and that most of the losses have already been recovered. On the 30th (local time), SBF said on X, "There are people in the comments asking 'Where did FTX's money go?'" and said, "The answer is simple. The money never disappeared." He explained, "Currently 98% of approved FTX customer claims have already been fully repaid, and interest has been paid as well," adding, "This is the figure calculated in U.S. dollars as of the bankruptcy filing date." He added, "Even when FTX was taken over by the bankruptcy legal team, there was enough money to return assets to all customers in kind," and "Even now, if not for the legal team's poor asset management, full repayment would have been possible." He also claimed that there remain enough residual assets to fully cover approximately $6.5 billion in the 'disputed claims reserve' and posted a link to the relevant court document. Regarding recent litigation developments, he said, "The bankruptcy legal team filed a motion to defer repayment to creditors in 49 countries, but the newly assigned judge dismissed it as 'premature'," and evaluated, "This is a small but important victory for FTX creditors."