JH Kim

According to CoinDesk, a U.S. cryptoasset (cryptocurrency) media outlet, on the 3rd (local time) Michael Selick, Chair of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), said the agency plans to announce regulatory guidelines for crypto perpetual futures (Perpetual Futures) in the near term. Speaking at a Milken Institute event in Washington, Selick said, "We will provide regulatory guidelines related to crypto perpetual futures in the near future." He added regarding prediction markets that "we will present guidelines very soon to establish clear standards," explaining that, in addition to simple guidance that is relatively easy to withdraw or revise procedurally, the CFTC is also pursuing in parallel an Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (ANPRM) process. An ANPRM is a preliminary document posted by a U.S. federal agency to inform the public that it is considering introducing a new regulation and to gather stakeholder input before a formal rule proposal. Amid ongoing jurisdictional disputes over prediction markets and crypto derivatives, the move is seen as an effort by the CFTC to flesh out the relevant regulatory framework.

On the 3rd (local time), The Block reporter Sarah Wynn reported that U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chair Michael Selig signaled the introduction of regulations related to prediction markets. Selig said he plans to pursue an Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (ANPRM) “in the near future,” adding that it is “to lay the groundwork for more comprehensive rulemaking.” An ANPRM is a preliminary document a U.S. federal agency publishes to inform the public that it is considering new regulations and to solicit stakeholder feedback before issuing a formal proposed rule. With jurisdictional disputes continuing around prediction-market platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi, speculation is growing that the CFTC could move to establish a full-fledged regulatory framework.

An analysis has found that Iran’s virtual asset (cryptocurrency) market has shown a pattern of sharp increases in trading volume and on-chain transfers whenever geopolitical crises occur. According to crypto-focused media outlet The Block on the 3rd (local time), blockchain data analytics firm Chainalysis said, "From after the U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Feb. 28 (local time) through March 2, about $10.3 million in virtual assets flowed out from Iran’s major platforms," adding that "this movement is not a one-off reaction but a long-term pattern that has repeatedly occurred whenever domestic unrest or regional clashes break out." It further assessed that "events such as confrontations with Israel and anti-government protests have driven down the value of the Iranian rial and fueled high inflation, and in this environment virtual assets have emerged as an alternative for both individuals and the state to store value and remit funds."

The three major U.S. stock indexes closed mixed. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.36% from the previous session three days earlier to 22,748.86 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.15% to 48,904.78, while the S&P 500 finished up 0.01% at 6,879.33.

According to Walter Bloomberg, an overseas economic breaking-news channel, on the 2nd (local time), a senior official of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) made an official statement that it would close the Strait of Hormuz, issuing a warning to the effect that it would attack all vessels transiting the strait. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical maritime chokepoint through which about 20% of the world’s crude oil supply passes, serving as a gateway for Middle Eastern crude exports. Should an actual blockade materialize, a sharp surge in international oil prices and a shock to global supply chains are expected to be unavoidable. It has not yet been confirmed whether the strait has in fact been blockaded, and market attention is also focused on how the United States and major oil-producing countries will respond.

All three major U.S. stock indexes are trading higher. The Nasdaq Composite was up 0.41% from the previous session at 22,760 points as of 05:07 on the 3rd. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.02% at 48,988.12, while the S&P 500 was up 0.15% at 6,889.33.

Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said spillovers from the Iran conflict could push back the timing of Federal Reserve (Fed) interest-rate cuts. According to Walter Bloomberg, an overseas breaking economic news channel, on the 2nd (local time), Yellen noted that tensions with Iran could both slow U.S. economic growth and stoke inflation. She warned in particular that if supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist, rising international oil prices could lift inflation again. “The Fed is focused on maintaining confidence in bringing inflation back to its 2% target,” she said, adding that in this environment the Fed is likely to maintain a more cautious “wait-and-see” stance. Yellen added, however, that despite geopolitical risks, the underlying fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain relatively solid.

The U.S. Department of Justice has indicted Ray Youssef, co-founder of the P2P virtual asset (cryptocurrency) exchange Paxful, on charges of violating anti-money laundering (AML) and licensing requirements. According to virtual asset media outlet BeInCrypto on the 2nd (local time), prosecutors alleged that Paxful facilitated transactions linked to illegal activity. They took issue in particular with its use for payments tied to a prostitution advertising platform. They also said Paxful lacked adequate know-your-customer (KYC) procedures and an effective internal compliance monitoring system, and failed to file suspicious activity reports (SARs) in a timely manner. Youssef denied the allegations, arguing that the action amounts to escalating pressure on the virtual asset industry. Meanwhile, Paxful recently pleaded guilty to three charges in a separate case and agreed to a $4 million fine.

Eleanor Terrett, host of Crypto in America, said on the 2nd (local time) via her X (formerly Twitter) that discussions in the US Congress on a digital asset (cryptocurrency) market structure bill—the CLARITY Act—are expected to resume later this month. Although the White House’s proposed deadline for reaching an agreement on stablecoin rewards (March 1) has passed, negotiations between banks and the industry are still ongoing. Banks argue that providing interest or similar compensation on stablecoin deposit balances should be prohibited, while the industry is pushing back, saying returns in the form of rewards or staking should be allowed. The Senate Banking Committee is reportedly planning to restart its review of the bill as early as mid-March. Markets are watching stablecoin rules and the delineation of market jurisdiction as key issues for the bill’s passage.

According to Solid Intel on the 2nd (local time), a U.S. court rejected the Donald Trump administration’s request to delay procedures in litigation over tariff refunds. Previously, the Trump administration had asked the court to slow down proceedings related to lawsuits over whether importers must be refunded tariffs that were ruled invalid by the Supreme Court. However, with the court declining to grant the request, the legal battle over whether the tariffs must be refunded is expected to proceed as scheduled. The matter is directly tied to tariff revenue amounting to tens of billions of dollars, raising the possibility that tensions between the administration and companies will continue.

U.S. President Donald Trump said in a televised address from the White House that the United States is carrying out a large-scale military operation against Iran. According to Walter Bloomberg on the 2nd (local time), Trump said Iran “refused to halt the development of nuclear weapons,” stressing that “we cannot accept a situation in which they possess missiles capable of striking the United States. We cannot accept nuclear weapons.” He added, “We mourn four U.S. service members killed in action,” and said, “We will win, and we will continue our response to the threat from Iran.” He also noted, “We expected this military action to take 4–5 weeks, but it could take longer.” The remarks come amid escalating military tensions between the United States and Iran, further increasing uncertainty over the Middle East situation.

According to crypto-focused media outlet The Block on the 2nd (local time), the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) appointed former federal prosecutor David Miller as Director of Enforcement. Miller is known for having primarily handled digital-asset cases during his tenure as a federal prosecutor. He is expected to play a key role as the agency steps up enforcement and oversight of digital-asset areas such as crypto assets and prediction markets. With the CFTC recently asserting jurisdiction aggressively over prediction-market platforms and crypto-asset derivatives, the appointment is seen as a signal that the commission intends to further tighten its regulatory enforcement stance.

A surge in global crude prices triggered by U.S.-Iran tensions is shaking JPMorgan’s longstanding “weak dollar” outlook, an analysis said. According to Walter Bloomberg on the 2nd (local time), JPMorgan has been betting on a weaker dollar and strength in high-beta currencies, but it assessed that the odds are rising that the dollar could instead strengthen as Brent crude jumps and geopolitical risks in the Middle East intensify. Strategists said the oil spike is supporting the dollar by lifting demand for safe-haven assets and shifting terms of trade. In fact, since oil began rising, major currencies such as the euro and the yen have come under pressure, while investors are moving to cut risk-asset-linked positions. In particular, currencies of countries heavily dependent on crude imports are facing depreciation pressure, while the currencies of energy exporters and safe havens such as the dollar appear to be relative beneficiaries. Some in the market also suggest that, for the time being, FX sentiment could be driven more by oil than by interest rates.

US President Donald Trump warned that “a bigger phase is still ahead” in connection with the military clash with Iran. On the 2nd (local time), according to Walter Bloomberg, President Trump said that while US forces are striking Iran effectively, “a bigger step is still ahead (The big one is coming soon).” He described the current military action as “very powerful,” and urged civilians to remain indoors. Trump did not elaborate on specific operational plans or a timeline, but his remarks are being interpreted as signaling the possibility of an expansion of military operations. With recent reports of explosions near Iranian nuclear facilities and signs of additional US force deployments, tensions across the Middle East are escalating further.

U.S. President Donald Trump said he would not rule out the possibility of deploying American troops to Iran if necessary. According to the New York Post (NYP) on the 2nd (local time), President Trump said he was keeping military options on the table in responding to Iran. With reports of an explosion near an Iranian nuclear facility and tensions between the two countries rising, Trump's remarks even hinting at the possible deployment of ground troops are further amplifying uncertainty in the Middle East.

Iranian local news websites reported that a loud explosion was heard near a nuclear facility and an air base in Isfahan, a central Iranian city. On the 2nd (local time), Walter Bloomberg reported that the blast was believed to have occurred around an area where nuclear-related facilities and a military air base are located. However, as of now, there has been no official announcement regarding the extent of damage, the cause, or whether an airstrike was involved. Isfahan is a strategic hub that hosts Iran’s key nuclear research and technology facilities, and as tensions in the Middle East escalate, concerns are growing over the possibility of further clashes.

U.S. President Donald Trump said he would step up military pressure on Iran. According to Walter Bloomberg on the 28th (local time), Trump claimed that “Iranian forces are seeking immunity” and that “Iran has been largely destroyed in just one day.” He added that “precision strikes will continue for as long as necessary,” saying “the bombing will continue without interruption throughout this week.” He also said he was “hearing that many Iranian forces do not want to fight,” stressing that “now is the biggest opportunity for the Iranian people to take back their country.” He warned, “You may be able to get immunity now, but later there is only death.” However, no official position from Iran or confirmation at the international level has yet emerged regarding the remarks. Earlier, Trump claimed via Truth Social that Khamenei had died, but the Iranian government immediately denied it, saying “Khamenei is safe and unharmed.” As of now, there is no internationally officially confirmed information regarding Khamenei’s safety.

Eyewitness accounts said that after U.S. President Donald Trump claimed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei had been killed in an airstrike, residents in parts of Tehran took to the streets and cheered. According to Walter Bloomberg on the 28th (local time), multiple witnesses said scenes were observed in some districts of Tehran of people coming out to celebrate or cheer. It was not confirmed, however, whether the footage reflected broader public sentiment. Earlier, President Trump made the claim on Truth Social, but the Iranian government immediately denied it, saying, "Khamenei is safe and unharmed." So far, there has been no internationally and officially confirmed information regarding Khamenei’s status.

U.S. President Donald Trump on the 28th (local time) claimed that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei has died. Trump wrote on his social media (SNS) platform Truth Social that “Khamenei, one of the most evil people in history, has died.” However, the Iranian government immediately denied the claim, saying, “Khamenei is safe and sound.”

The three major U.S. stock indexes are trading lower. As of 04:25 on the 28th, the Nasdaq Composite is down 0.97% from the previous session at 22,656.56 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 1.13% at 48,940 points, while the S&P 500 is off 0.52% at 6,872.93.

According to Walter Bloomberg on the 27th (local time), U.S. President Donald Trump said regarding the possibility of using military force against Iran, "I don’t want to, but sometimes you have to do that." The remarks come as tensions persist over Iran’s nuclear issue, and are interpreted as reaffirming his stance that while a diplomatic solution takes priority, a military option will not be ruled out if necessary. In recent weeks, the United States has been ratcheting up pressure by deploying additional fighter jets, warships and an aircraft carrier to the Middle East. Experts say the possibility of heightened military tensions cannot be ruled out if talks fail to make progress.