Minseung Kang

Solana (SOL)·XRP (XRP)-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded the highest first-day trading volumes among ETFs launched this year, yet reports say the underlying asset prices have continued to show weakness. According to crypto asset (cryptocurrency) specialist media CryptoSlate on the 19th, Bitwise's Solana Staking ETF (BSOL) posted $56 million in trading volume on its first day, and Canary Capital's XRP spot ETF (XRPC) posted $58 million, marking the highest figures among ETF launches this year. However, SOL fell nearly 20% from around $205 before listing to $165 within a week, and XRP also slid from the $2.40–$2.50 range before listing to the low $2.20s. The outlet analyzed that the first-day trading volume includes market makers' or institutions' position adjustments, arbitrage, and reallocation of existing holdings, and that such trades can form hedging structures between ETFs and spot/futures that may exert short-term downward pressure on the underlying asset prices. In fact, the Solana and XRP ETFs recorded net inflows, but the outlet assessed that those amounts were limited relative to the market capitalizations of the two assets. It also noted that recent Bitcoin adjustments of more than 20% from early-month highs have put risky assets broadly into a 'risk-off' mode, which was cited as another factor weighing on prices. Given that Solana and XRP had rallied ahead of ETF listings on launch expectations, the outlet also suggested that profit-taking selling strengthened immediately after listing. The outlet said, "Demand for ETF products and asset price movements can diverge in the short term," and added, "Due to the structural characteristics of ETFs, if actual purchases of the underlying assets through creation/redemption are limited, short-term price correlation can be reduced."

Ethereum (ETH), Chainlink (LINK), and Cardano (ADA) have entered a 'buying opportunity zone' based on the market value - realized value (MVRV) indicator. On the 19th, according to virtual asset (cryptocurrency) specialized media The Daily Hodl, on-chain analytics firm Santiment said that as the 30-day active-wallet-based average trading returns have fallen significantly, these assets have entered a state of 'high probability of bottom buying' on the MVRV indicator. Santiment explained that over the past 30 days Cardano's average return was -19.7%, Chainlink's was -16.8%, and Ethereum's was -15.4%, classifying all of them as 'buying opportunity zones'. Additionally, Bitcoin (BTC) and XRP were -11.5% and -10.2%, respectively, showing relatively milder corrections. Santiment said that because MVRV reflects the average profit and loss status of short-term holders, lower returns can serve as a reference for gauging the likelihood of price recovery. However, it also noted that the indicator is not a definitive bottom signal and that volatility may widen depending on market conditions.

Stablecoin market capitalization has shown a slight decrease compared to the previous week. On the 15th, according to the decentralized finance (DeFi) dashboard DeFiLlama, the market capitalization of stablecoins, including USDT, was approximately 304.246 billion dollars (about 443 trillion won). This is a decrease of 1.244 billion dollars (0.41%) compared to the previous week. Currently, tether (USDT) accounts for 60.44% of the total stablecoin market capitalization. Generally, an increase in stablecoin issuance and holdings can act as a factor increasing buying pressure in the market and is considered a bullish signal. Conversely, a decrease in stablecoin supply is interpreted as an indication that demand for crypto assets has somewhat contracted.

Founders Fund, led by Peter Thiel, appears to have reduced its stake in Bitmain, the world's largest holder of Ethereum (ETH), to about half. On the 15th (local time), crypto-focused media BlockBeats cited a 13G filing that Founders Fund recently submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), reporting that its current holdings of Bitmain stock stand at 2,547,001 shares. BlockBeats explained, "According to this amendment filing, the stake Founders Fund holds in Bitmain appears to have been reduced to about half compared to before." Meanwhile, according to SEC filings, FF Consumer Growth II, LP holds 1,963,380 shares, and FF Consumer Growth, LLC holds 583,621 shares. Peter Thiel serves as manager of each entity, exercising shared voting and dispositive power. The total holdings account for about 0.9% of outstanding shares.

The Cardano Foundation has been confirmed to be pursuing the launch of an ADA spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the U.S. market. The market is cautiously discussing the possibility of a launch within the next year. On the 15th, according to DL News, a crypto asset (cryptocurrency) specialist media, Frederik Gregaard, CEO of the Cardano Foundation, said, "We are carrying out work related to ETFs in the U.S.," adding, "Many announcements look like ETFs but actually include exchange-traded products (ETPs). We are reviewing a spot ETF and are already working on it." Gregaard did not disclose a specific schedule, but when asked, "Are you aiming to launch the ETF within the next year?" he answered, "Yes." He explained, "An ETF is likely to be one item on the checklist needed to secure institutional investor access in the U.S. market, rather than a measure to raise the price."

It was later confirmed that the Scaramucci father and son led the $220 million investment round in the Bitcoin (BTC) mining company American Bitcoin, which involved President Trump's family, carried out last July. According to Fortune on the 15th (local time), Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital, and his son AJ Scaramucci led American Bitcoin's investment round last July. The round was conducted as a pre-IPO equity investment, and the listing process was completed in September through a reverse merger. American Bitcoin is a company that advocates building high-efficiency mining infrastructure and a long-term Bitcoin accumulation strategy. It was founded directly by President Trump's second son Eric Trump, and his eldest son Donald Trump Jr. is participating as a shareholder. AJ Scaramucci said that his firm Solari Capital invested more than $100 million but did not disclose the exact amount. Anthony Scaramucci also invested some personal funds, but he did not disclose the size. The investment reportedly also included Tony Robbins, Charles Hoskinson, Grant Cardone, and Peter Diamandis. In an interview, AJ Scaramucci said, "There were political conflicts, but Bitcoin is an asset that transcends political camps," and "the long-standing feud between my father and President Trump did not affect the investment decision." Anthony Scaramucci once served as White House Communications Director for President Trump but was removed after a few days in office and has maintained a critical stance toward the president. However, he emphasized, "Bitcoin is the 'orange team' and is an asset that moves separately from politics." In addition to the Bitcoin holdings secured through mining, American Bitcoin is pursuing a strategy of making additional purchases on the market. Company chairman Asher Genoot said, "The Scaramucci father and son trusted the company's direction and focused on corporate value regardless of personal relationships." Meanwhile, AJ Scaramucci was college roommates with American Bitcoin president Matt Prusak, and it is reported that this connection facilitated the deal.

On-chain data analytics firm Glassnode said the altcoin market remains in a 'sell-off zone' and diagnosed that only about 5% of altcoin supply is in profit. On the 15th (local time), Glassnode said on X (formerly Twitter), "The amount of altcoins currently in profit is only about 5% of the total," adding, "the proportion of profitable holdings is moving at an extremely low level." It explained that, meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC) has seen the amount in profit rapidly decrease along with recent price adjustments. Glassnode said, "In this market, the profit flows of Bitcoin and altcoins are moving differently," calling it "a characteristic that was hard to see in past cycles." It said that while altcoins have proactively entered a 'capitulation' phase (capitulation), Bitcoin now appears to have entered a full-fledged correction phase, an abnormal divergence that was hard to see in past cycles.

The virtual asset (cryptocurrency) derivatives exchange ASTER (ASTER) explained there are "no changes" regarding the 'tokenomics change' controversy. On the 15th, the ASTER team said on X (formerly Twitter) that "confusion arose within the community during the process of updating CoinMarketCap (CMC) information" and that "ASTER's tokenomics structure remains unchanged." ASTER said the update was a measure to accurately reflect the circulating supply (circulating supply). In particular, concerns had been raised about the monthly unlocked amounts of the community·ecosystem allocation. ASTER emphasized that "the amounts unlocked each month after the token issuance (TGE) were not used and were all kept in lockup addresses, and were not included in the circulating supply." The project team said it plans to move the unlocked amounts to a separate public address to prevent confusion. They added that "there are currently no plans to use the tokens from that address" and "will disclose transparently if funds are used in the future."

An analysis found that in the Bitcoin (BTC) market, the leverage ratio has risen even during a price downturn, increasing volatility risk. On the 15th (local time), an analyst at Arabchain said in a CryptoQuant QuickTake report that "Binance's estimated Bitcoin leverage ratio rose to 0.204, marking the highest level in the past month." He pointed to the fact that leveraged positions remain intact even though Bitcoin's price has recently dropped to the $96,000 level as a concern. The analyst explained, "The trend of the leverage ratio rising during price decline periods has repeatedly led to long squeezes in the past," adding, "If leverage accumulates without a price rebound, the market structure becomes fragile and a small selling pressure can trigger a sharp drop." He added, "During the mild rally in July–August, the leverage ratio actually decreased, but currently positions are not being liquidated despite the price decline," and added, "It appears that excessive leverage liquidations have not yet been completed." He also said, "If high levels of leverage persist, short-term volatility may increase in either sharp declines or sharp rises," and forecasted, "The market's future direction depends on how it absorbs leveraged positions that have high inflows of liquidity."

Bitcoin (BTC) miner Bitdeer mined 125.5 BTC over the past week and increased its net holdings by 202 BTC. On the 15th (local time), Bitdeer disclosed its Bitcoin mining and holding status as of the 14th via its official X (formerly Twitter). Bitdeer mined 125.5 BTC over the week and sold 70.3 BTC during the same period. The Net BTC Added, as disclosed by the company, was recorded at 202 BTC. The company's pure Bitcoin holdings excluding customer deposits total 2470.3 BTC.

Multicoin Capital said it invested in ENA, the token of the Ethereum-based synthetic dollar project 'Ethena Protocol'. On the 15th (local time), Vishal Kankani, a partner at Multicoin Capital, said on X (formerly Twitter) that "Multicoin Capital's Liquid Fund invested in ENA." Kankani assessed that Ethena sits at the intersection of synthetic dollar (USDe) growth, the expansion of the derivatives (Perpetual) market, and the trend of asset tokenization. He explained that USDe has been adopted as collateral on major exchanges such as Binance and Bybit, and that the protocol's cumulative revenue has approached $600 million. He said, "The team's risk management experience and the potential to capture future revenue are positive signals," and forecasted, "The synthetic dollar market will grow further."

The founder of Hyperliquid emphasized that "decentralized finance (DeFi) should not be consolidated into large corporate forms." On the 15th (local time), according to Wu Blockchain, Jeff, the founder of Hyperliquid, said in an interview at the TOKEN2049 Singapore event on the 14th of last month, "The view that DeFi is a 'conglomerate (large corporate group)' is wrong." He explained, "True DeFi is not a closed centralized structure, but an ecosystem made by stacking interoperable open financial modules like Lego." Jeff emphasized that Hyperliquid continues development based on these principles. He stated, "Returning to DeFi's original philosophy is the right path to creating future finance."

Virtual asset (cryptocurrency) derivatives exchange ASTER has significantly revised the token unlock plan that was originally scheduled for this year. On the 15th (local time), according to virtual asset (cryptocurrency) specialist media Wu Blockchain, the ASTER team recently decided to cancel or delay some ASTER token unlock schedules. Many unlock amounts scheduled for this year were moved to next summer, and some amounts were further delayed until 2035. The ASTER team explained, "Monthly ecosystem (ecosystem) unlocks were included in the initial design phase, but we judged that those amounts are not needed at present and decided not to proceed."

An address linked to the Balancer (Balancer) hack has begun moving the stolen Ethereum (ETH) through the privacy protocol Tornado Cash (Tornado Cash). On the 15th (local time), on-chain analytics account Onchain Lens said on X (formerly Twitter), "The Balancer exploiter has begun moving ETH to Tornado Cash." Earlier, Balancer said it had about $116 million worth of crypto assets stolen in a hacking attack on the 3rd (local time). Balancer is currently said to have offered to pay the hacker 20% of the stolen assets as a white hat (white hat) reward.

Bitcoin(BTC) temporarily recovered to 96,000 dollars. As of 23:40 on the 14th, based on the Binance USDT market, the BTC price is trading at 96,175 dollars (145,500,000 won on the Upbit exchange), down 5.84% from the previous day. Meanwhile, according to Cryprice, the kimchi premium for major virtual assets (cryptocurrencies) including Bitcoin(BTC) is 4.03%.

The likelihood of Bitcoin (BTC) falling below 90,000 dollars within the year is rising significantly in the market. On the 14th (local time), according to Polymarket, the crypto asset (cryptocurrency) prediction market, the settlement probability that Bitcoin will fall below 90,000 dollars this year was recorded at 70%. In the same period, △ the probability of falling below 80,000 dollars was 26%, and △ the probability of rising above 120,000 dollars was 22%. The prediction market's cumulative trading volume has exceeded 54,750,000 dollars, indicating that directional bets are strengthening amid increased short-term volatility.

Amid continued Bitcoin (BTC) correction, Michael Saylor, CEO of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), evaluated the current point as a strong support zone and mentioned the possibility of further gains. On the 14th (local time), according to the Walter Bloomberg overseas economic news alert channel, Saylor said in a CNBC interview, "We've put in a very strong base around here". He projected, "Bitcoin will rebound again in this range." Saylor also said, "Strategy is continuing to buy Bitcoin in significant amounts," and "The latest purchase details will be released on Monday."

A prospect has emerged that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may speed up approval of crypto asset (cryptocurrency) ETFs. On the 14th (local time), Eric Balchunas, a Bloomberg ETF analyst, said on X·formerly Twitter, "The SEC disclosed that it could make registration documents take effect more quickly at the issuer's request." He said, "This measure could lead some crypto asset (cryptocurrency) ETFs to try to move up their launch timing," adding, "Bitwise's XRP spot ETF appears likely to be the next approval target." According to the Q&A materials the SEC released, it is stated that △registration documents submitted during the shutdown can be subject to accelerated review if the issuer requests it (item 7), and △even if an amendment is removed or a new registration is submitted, the issuer can request to bring forward the effective date (item 3). This means the SEC can operate procedures with some flexibility to resolve the backlog of filings delayed by the shutdown.

Michael Saylor, CEO of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), reiterated his intention to hold Bitcoin (BTC) long-term even during a correction phase. On the 14th (local time), Saylor posted a short message on X (formerly Twitter) saying "Hold (HODL)". Along with this, he shared an image depicting himself on a lifeboat with a sinking ship behind him. This suggested his intention to continue holding Bitcoin despite market volatility.

Bitcoin (BTC) temporarily relinquished the $95,000 level and continued a bearish trend. As of 21:41 on the 14th, on the Binance USDT market, Bitcoin was down 8.71% from the previous day at $94,677. On domestic Upbit, it is approximately 143,130,000 won. According to CrypPrice, the kimchi premium for major virtual assets (cryptocurrencies) including Bitcoin (BTC) was about 3.95% on that day. This adjustment is analyzed as the result of accumulated market uncertainty and structural factors such as AI-driven funding squeezes. In addition, the impact of large-scale liquidations in October, ETF fund outflows, and weakened market liquidity have further widened the decline.