FOMC minutes expand expectations of a rate hold Data gaps coincide as Bitcoin retreats to the $88,608 level intraday NVIDIA strong results calm the steep sell-off "Short-term support being tested...downside risks remain" Bitcoin slipped below the $90,000 level intraday and continued its weak trend. The minutes of the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released on the 19th (local time) sharply dampened investor sentiment as they suggested the likelihood of a December rate cut had become slim. However, NVIDIA's 'record' earnings announced the same day revived risk-asset sentiment overall, limiting Bitcoin's decline and prompting a rebound. According to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin fell as low as $88,608 intraday immediately after the FOMC minutes were released, marking the lowest level in seven months. The minutes showed that many Federal Reserve (Fed) participants said "it would be appropriate to maintain the target interest rate for the remainder of the year," which triggered the downtrend. It was confirmed that only a minority of members favored a rate cut. Of course, the 'participants (many participants)' noted in the minutes include presidents of regional Federal Reserve banks who do not have voting rights, so it is difficult to draw conclusions about the positions of those with voting power. However, considering that recent Fed officials with voting rights have consecutively made hawkish (tightening-favoring) remarks, the market broadly views a December rate hold as more likely. Gaps in employment data also bolster the hold outlook. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said it will not publish the October employment report. This effectively realized the 'permanent omission of October economic data' that the White House had warned about. Moreover, the November employment report is scheduled to be released after the December FOMC meeting. With employment turning into a key variable for monetary policy, the Fed is faced with making rate decisions without the most important monthly indicators. With key indicators absent and forecasting uncertainty rising, market rate expectations shifted rapidly. On prediction platform Polymarket, the probability of a December rate hold surged to 68%. Given that dovish officials who had supported rate cuts argued based on a "slowing labor market," the data gap is seen as putting considerable pressure on that decision. NVIDIA 'earnings surprise'…stops Bitcoin's plunge Amid generally weakened investor sentiment, NVIDIA's strong results prevented further steep declines in Bitcoin. NVIDIA reported an 'earnings surprise' that far exceeded market expectations, temporarily easing AI bubble concerns and reviving buying across tech-focused risk assets. On the 19th (local time), NVIDIA said third-quarter (Aug–Oct) revenue was $57.01 billion (about 83.4 trillion won). It was an all-time high, up 62% year-on-year and 22% quarter-on-quarter. This far exceeded the revenue estimate compiled by LSEG ($54.92 billion), and earnings per share (EPS) were $1.30, above the market expectation of $1.25. Following NVIDIA's earnings release, buying flowed into tech stocks broadly, and that flow was reflected in Bitcoin. Bitcoin, which had fallen to the $88,000 level intraday, recovered the $90,000 level after NVIDIA's results were announced and is currently trading around $92,500. AI-themed crypto assets also rebounded. BitTensor (TAO), NEAR Protocol (NEAR), Internet Computer Protocol (ICP), and Render (RNDR) posted increases of about 4~5%. Bitcoin-mining companies that have been strengthening AI infrastructure also rebounded. As of the day, IREN (IREN) rose 8%, Cipher Mining (CIFR) rose 11%, and Hut 8 Mining (HUT) rose 6%. Stocks that had fallen sharply amid the recent correction in tech and crypto assets and AI bubble concerns took a breather on the back of NVIDIA's results. Future movements will depend on where Bitcoin secures support. Bettle Runde, head of K33 Research, warned, "Considering flows similar to the past two major corrections, there is a possibility of a short-term bottom forming in the $84,000–$86,000 range," adding, "However, if that support range breaks, there is also a risk of falling to $74,433, the April low and the strategy's average buy-in price." Crypto-focused outlet Cointelegraph also analyzed that downside risks remain. The outlet said, "If downward pressure intensifies again, selling could test the $89,253 support level," and added, "If this level is breached, declines could extend to $87,800, and then to $83,000."
November 19PiCK