Uk Jin

South Korea’s financial authorities said they could immediately implement a ₩100 trillion market-stabilization program if necessary, as tensions in the Middle East persist following the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei in an attack by the United States and Israel. According to the industry on the 1st, Financial Services Commission Chairman Lee Eok-won convened an emergency meeting at the Government Complex Seoul to review financial market conditions, saying, “The outlook for developments in the Middle East remains uncertain,” and adding, “If the situation becomes protracted, it could affect domestic financial markets and the real economy, so we must maintain heightened vigilance and closely monitor the domestic economy and financial market conditions.” Lee said the FSC has activated an “emergency response financial markets team,” led by the head of the FSC secretariat, with relevant institutions including the Ministry of Finance and Economy and the Bank of Korea participating, and ordered ongoing monitoring. He also instructed that, if necessary, prearranged financial market stabilization measures (Contigency Plan) be implemented, including a “₩100 trillion+α” market-stabilization program.

U.S. President Donald Trump warned that if Iran launches a large-scale attack, the United States would respond “with a force we have never seen before.” In a post on his social media platform Truth Social on the 1st (local time), Trump said, “Iran has stated that it will carry out a very powerful attack today,” adding, “If they do that, we will strike with an unprecedented level of force.” He urged restraint in a stern tone, saying, “They must not do that.”

According to Iranian state media, Reuters reported on the 1st (local time) that Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader, was assassinated while at work in his office. The state media said, "Khamenei died after being attacked while performing his duties in his office early Saturday morning."

A view has emerged that institutional investors see the "tokenisation of exchange-traded funds (ETFs)" as central to expanding the digital-asset (cryptocurrency) market. On the 1st (Korea time), Crissa McFarlane, CEO of Patientory, wrote in a Forbes contribution that "according to the results of a global survey by Nickel Digital Asset Management, institutional investors expect the trend of issuing and distributing regulated financial products in the form of blockchain-based tokens to gather pace in earnest". In the survey, 97% of respondents said the "tokenisation of ETFs" being pursued by major asset managers such as BlackRock would be important for expanding the digital-asset market. Of these, 32% rated it as "very important". In addition, 70% forecast that the tokenisation of investment funds and a range of asset classes would expand over the next three years. By asset class, private equity (PE) was cited as the area with the greatest tokenisation potential, followed by bonds and listed equities. McFarlane assessed that "once major asset managers enter the tokenisation market in earnest, both liquidity and credibility could rise" and that "tokenisation is increasingly moving beyond theory and establishing itself as real financial-market infrastructure".

U.S. strikes on Iran…can the KOSPI extend its record run? NH Investment & Securities: "This week’s KOSPI seen at 5,800–6,800" Brokerages forecast that the KOSPI, which set fresh highs last week, will attempt further gains this week (3rd–6th), potentially rising as high as the 6,800 level. They cited momentum from export performance and the impact of the third revision to the Commercial Act. With the U.S. having launched a surprise strike on Iran last month on the 28th (local time) together with Israel, and with March 1 Independence Movement Day observed as a substitute holiday on the 2nd, attention is focused on whether the KOSPI can sustain additional gains through the rest of the week. Experts advised maintaining exposure to large-cap semiconductor stocks such as and , which led the index’s strong advance. They view recent net selling by foreigners in the two names as profit-taking rather than a signal of a step-by-step reduction in positions. on the 1st presented a projected KOSPI trading range of 5,800–6,800 for this week. Analyst Na Jeong-hwan of the brokerage pointed to debate over artificial intelligence (AI) profitability and profit-taking as downside factors, but said the Commercial Act revision and strong exports in semiconductors and other areas should provide support. The KOSPI showed significant volatility last week. In particular, it closed at 6,307.27 on the 26th, reaching the 6,300 milestone for the first time ever. The next day, the 27th, it surged as high as 6,347.41 intraday to set another record, but lacked follow-through and finished the session around the 6,240 level. As semiconductor shares continue to rise and the KOSPI keeps notching new highs, brokerages are advising investors not to cut semiconductor exposure. Na said, “Of this year’s KOSPI consensus net profit of KRW 457 trillion, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix account for KRW 257.6 trillion, or 56%,” adding, “While the two stocks have risen rapidly, in a phase where semiconductor earnings—driving more than half of the KOSPI’s net profit—are expanding, it is necessary to maintain exposure to large-cap semiconductor leaders.” He continued, “Foreigners have been net sellers of the two names recently, but they are maintaining an overweight stance on semiconductors, so this selling is interpreted as profit-taking on some excess gains.” Attention is also on Korea’s February export figures to be released that day. Exports for Feb. 1–20 rose 23.5% from a year earlier. Despite fewer working days in February, the figure exceeded the same period in January (up 14.9%), with a strong, semiconductor-led trend continuing. Some warn that momentum in Commercial Act revision-related stocks could fade now that the third revision has passed, on the view that the catalyst has been exhausted. However, Na advised it remains worth watching, saying, “Ahead of the March shareholders’ meeting season, shareholder proposals may increase and demands for shareholder returns could intensify, especially among companies with large treasury shareholdings.” Earnings momentum is also still in play. This week in the U.S. market, results are due from (3rd), (4th), and Costco (5th). Na said, “With delivering solid earnings, the ‘AI disruption’ narrative in the U.S. market has also eased somewhat,” adding, “This is a phase where the likelihood of a rebound is rising for the M7, which have been trending lower since last November, as well as for oversold IT software names.” NH Investment & Securities named semiconductors (Samsung Electronics), brokerages (), holding companies (LS), ESS ( Energy Solution), chemicals (), retail (), and healthcare () as sectors and stocks of interest. Na said, “Both institutions and foreigners are gradually increasing exposure to healthcare, IT consumer electronics (secondary batteries), and transportation, so it is necessary to pay attention to related stocks.” Still, the market is watching the impact on Korean equities as the U.S. and Israel have carried out sweeping air strikes targeting Iran’s core military and political facilities. Concerns have grown that Iran could immediately launch simultaneous strikes on Israel proper and U.S. bases in the Middle East, pushing the region into uncontrollable turmoil. The attack was carried out shortly after the third round of nuclear talks held in Geneva, Switzerland on the 26th ended with “no deal.” The U.S. demanded what it called a “package deal,” including reducing uranium enrichment to 0%, returning 300 kg of already enriched uranium, dismantling key nuclear facilities (Fordow, Natanz, Isfahan), curbing missile range, and halting support for proxy forces. However, after Iran defined the demands as an infringement on sovereignty and a call for disarmament and rejected them, analysts say the Trump administration abandoned a diplomatic solution and moved to use force. According to The Washington Post (WP), when asked—regarding the U.S. military attack on Iran—what “legacy” of the administration he hoped would result from the attack, U.S. President Donald Trump said, “All I want is freedom for those people (the Iranian people).” Shin Min-kyung, Hankyung.com reporter radio@hankyung.com

As the Middle East conflict enters its second day, large sums of money are flowing into related bets on prediction markets. In particular, claims that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei has died appear to have sharply raised the perceived likelihood of his ouster. According to the decentralized prediction market Polymarket on April 1 (Korea time), traders in a bet asking, “Will Leader Khamenei step down by March 31?” are pricing in a 98% probability that Khamenei will be ousted. This appears to have been influenced by an announcement from U.S. President Donald Trump reported early that morning. On March 28 (local time), President Trump wrote on the social media platform Truth Social, “Khamenei, one of the most evil people in history, has died.” Trump added, “Khamenei died amid airstrikes,” and warned that “the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) may be immune for now, but later it will gain only death.” However, there has been no official confirmation so far from either the Iranian government or Israel. Nor has there been any independent verification of whether Khamenei is alive.

On the 28th (local time), Reuters reported that Iran's defense minister and the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have died. Reuters said, "Two sources familiar with Israeli military operations and one Middle East-based source said that Iran's Defense Minister Amir Nasirzadeh and IRGC commander Mohammad Pakpour appear to have been killed in an Israeli attack."

As the Middle East conflict sparked by U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran continues, Reuters reported on the 28th (Korea time) that eight countries in OPEC+—a grouping of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and major oil-producing nations—are considering raising output. According to sources, OPEC+ member states are scheduled to meet on the 29th and plan to discuss increasing oil production by more than previously planned. Earlier, OPEC+ delegates said it was possible they would agree to raise April crude output by 137,000 barrels per day. Bloomberg also reported that OPEC+ is expected to discuss expanding the scale of the output increase at this meeting. Brent crude settled at $73 a barrel on the London ICE Futures exchange on the 27th, marking its highest level in about seven months. So far this year, Brent has risen about 19%.

[Breaking] Blue House on U.S. attack on Iran: "Mindful the situation could be prolonged…closely monitoring developments" Park Subin, Hankyung.com reporter waterbean@hankyung.com

Paradigm, a venture capital (VC) firm specializing in digital assets (cryptocurrencies), is moving to raise a new $1.5 billion fund. The fund, however, is reportedly intended to invest not only in digital assets but also in emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics. On the 28th (Korea time), Cryptonews, citing The Wall Street Journal, reported that Paradigm is preparing a new fund that goes beyond blockchain-centric investing to encompass AI, robotics and other advanced technology sectors. Paradigm is said to plan to source related investment opportunities by leveraging its existing technology investment team without establishing a separate organization. It will also continue investing in existing blockchain startups. Paradigm currently has about $12.7 billion in assets under management (AUM). As such, the digital-asset industry has recently been seeing a shift toward expanding investment beyond digital assets into adjacent technology fields such as AI. With AI increasingly affecting software and the broader development ecosystem, the investment landscape appears to be undergoing a reshuffle. Andreessen Horowitz (a16z), the world’s largest venture capital firm, has also recently secured more than $15 billion in new capital for AI investments.

The crypto-asset (cryptocurrency) market is broadly weakening after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. Some argue that, unlike traditional finance, the always-open crypto market bore the full brunt of negative weekend developments. On the 28th (Korea time), Arthur, CEO of Defiance Capital, wrote on X (formerly Twitter), "It’s sad that crypto has become a short-hedging tool for traditional finance when negative weekend events occur." His remarks are seen as referring to the broad sell-off across the crypto market as U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran began that day. Bitcoin (BTC) slid intraday to the $63,000 level, down about 6% from the previous day. Major altcoins, including Ethereum (ETH), also fell in tandem.

According to Al Jazeera and other outlets on the 28th (local time), the Bahraini government said the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet headquarters located in the country was targeted in a missile attack. Reports said the attack occurred in the Juffair area near the capital Manama, where a U.S. naval base is located. Smoke was seen along with an explosion near the base. Bahraini authorities did not provide details on the extent of the damage or whether there were casualties. An official U.S. response has yet to be issued.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said on the 28th (local time) via X (formerly Twitter) that it had "identified missiles launched from Iran toward Israel." The IDF added that it is "currently operating air defense systems to intercept them."

On the 28th (local time), U.S. President Donald Trump issued a statement on strikes on Iran via his social media (SNS). President Trump said, “A short while ago, the United States carried out a major military operation against Iran.” He continued, “The purpose of this operation is to remove the threat posed by the Iranian regime and defend the American people,” adding, “Iran must never be allowed to have nuclear weapons. Iran attempted to rebuild its nuclear program.” He also added, “America’s primary objective is to destroy Iran’s missiles and devastate its industry itself,” and said it would “wipe out the Iranian navy.”