Minseung Kang

An analysis suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) may face additional corrective pressure in the medium term despite recent rebound attempts. On the 1st (local time), Mike McGlone, a Bloomberg strategist, wrote on X (formerly Twitter), "Bitcoin's price could retest around $50,000," and "the Bitcoin/gold ratio could also face pressure to revert from the current 20x to about 13x." McGlone pointed out, "The 120-day volatility of the S&P500 is heading toward the lowest year-end phase since 2017," and said, "Such extremely low equity market volatility is a factor that increases corrective risk across risk assets." He explained, "Bitcoin could act as a leading indicator of correction in this environment."

As liquidity in the altcoin market is rapidly decreasing, analysis suggests that projects that have secured external liquidity channels such as ETFs or inclusion in corporate financial assets are relatively more likely to survive. On the 1st (local time), Ju Ki-young, CEO of CryptoQuant, wrote on X (formerly Twitter) that "altcoin liquidity is drying up," and said "projects that have secured ETFs or corporate financial strategies like Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) have a higher chance of long-term survival." DAT refers to a strategy where a company reserves a specific coin as a financial asset. According to materials Ju released, major assets such as ETH, SOL, XRP, LINK have already been approved for spot ETFs or have been included as financial assets of listed companies. In addition, BNB, NEAR, TON, TRX, LTC, DOGE are classified as projects that are being discussed for ETF approval or are securing initial liquidity through trust products. He emphasized, "After all, altcoins are a liquidity battle," and "projects that are not connected to ETF, DAT, or institutional channels have high long-term risks."

Bitcoin (BTC) price has formed a new accumulation zone as it adjusted into the low $80,000s. On the 1st (local time), on-chain data analytics firm glassnode said on X (formerly Twitter), "As Bitcoin dropped into the low $80,000s, a new cost-basis cluster formed in this range." Glassnode added, "Recent investors' entry prices are concentrated in this range, forming the most prominent cluster on the heatmap," and analyzed that "it could act as a strong support going forward." A cost-basis cluster refers to the range where market participants actually bought, and the thicker this range, the more downward pressure below that price level tends to weaken.

Tom Lee, founder of Fundstrat and chairman of Bitmine Immersion Technologies, suggested the possibility of a strong V-shaped recovery in crypto assets and the stock market next year. He analyzed that both Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) could switch to an uptrend as supply reduction and increased institutional demand coincide. On the 1st (local time), according to CoinPedia, a crypto (cryptocurrency) specialized media, Lee said, "U.S. financial conditions have begun to move away from the tightening stance of the past three years," and added, "If liquidity improves and cyclical indicators rebound simultaneously, 2026 could be a strong recovery phase." He noted that the U.S. manufacturing index (ISM) remained below the baseline (50) for 36 consecutive months, saying, "Such a prolonged slump is rare and has typically been a precursor to a large rebound." Lee emphasized that despite recent market adjustments, the fundamentals have actually been strengthening. He said, "Institutional inflows have been steadily increasing, and the reduction in exchange-held Bitcoin and Ethereum is a positive signal for price from the supply side," and assessed, "Bitcoin has taken root as an institutional asset, and Ethereum's long-term competitiveness is being reinforced by the expansion of stablecoins·asset tokenization." He also analyzed that on-chain supply decreases for BTC·ETH and expanding institutional demand could coincide with short-term bottom signals. Regarding next year's market outlook, he forecasted, "2026 could see a V-shaped recovery." He also stated, "Bitcoin could rebound to $100,000~$150,000 by year-end, and Ethereum could rebound to $7,000~$9,000 by the end of January next year." In a CNBC interview, Lee also mentioned that "post-halving supply reduction and demand expansion could overlap and cause a supply shock," and has maintained a long-term Bitcoin forecast of $3,000,000 per coin.

Digital asset (cryptocurrency) investment products experienced a net inflow of about USD 1.06 billion last week, marking a reversal of a four-week outflow trend. On the 1st (local time), according to CoinShares, a digital-asset-focused asset manager, digital asset ETPs saw total inflows of USD 1.06 billion last week. Net outflows of USD 5.7 billion were recorded over the previous four weeks, but remarks by John Williams, president of the New York Fed, which highlighted expectations for an interest rate cut this month, are analyzed as having provided a catalyst for reversing investor sentiment. The U.S. market accounted for the majority of inflows. Despite reduced trading volume due to the Thanksgiving holiday, the U.S. saw USD 994 million in inflows, followed by Canada with USD 97.6 million and Switzerland with USD 23.6 million. Germany recorded a net outflow of USD 57.3 million, making it the only major country to see funds leave. Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded products (ETPs) saw USD 461 million in inflows. In contrast, short (short-selling) Bitcoin products experienced USD 1.9 million in outflows, showing a complete reversal in investor positioning. Ethereum (ETH) also had net inflows of USD 308 million, reflecting improved sentiment. XRP recorded a record weekly inflow of USD 289 million. The cumulative inflows over the past six weeks correspond to about 29% of XRP ETP assets under management (AuM), and are interpreted as reflecting the impact of the launch of new XRP ETFs in the United States. By contrast, Cardano (ADA) saw outflows of USD 19.3 million over the same period, reducing its assets under management by 23%.

Global crypto exchange Binance will sequentially delist four USDⓈ-M perpetual futures contracts — SXPUSDT, MILKUSDT, OBOLUSDT, and TOKENUSDT — on the 5th. According to Binance on the 1st (local time), all positions in the futures products will be automatically settled at 18:00 (KST) on the 5th for SXPUSDT and MILKUSDT, and at 18:30 (KST) for OBOLUSDT and TOKENUSDT. Once settlement is completed, the products will be delisted immediately. Binance advised, "We recommend closing positions before the delisting time to avoid automatic settlement."

Rising prospects of a BOJ rate hike in December and escalating diplomatic tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela have combined to rapidly spread global risk-off sentiment, according to an analysis. On the 1st (local time), crypto-focused media BlockBeats reported that Kazuo Ueda, governor of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), recently sent hawkish (preference for tighter monetary policy) signals, stoking market expectations of a rate increase within the year. Added to this was heightened diplomatic tension between the U.S. and Venezuela, which expanded selling pressure across risk assets. Amid such macroeconomic uncertainty, Bitcoin (BTC) plunged during Asian trading hours. In particular, the "high-density liquidation zone" concentrated with liquidation orders around $92,300 collapsed, triggering chained liquidations, and analysts say the pace of the decline accelerated after that zone broke. If investor sentiment continues to weaken, there is also the possibility of testing the large liquidity pool in the $82,300 range. Bitunix analysts said, "With the BOJ’s shift toward a hawkish stance and the addition of geopolitical variables, risk assets are broadly under pressure," adding, "BTC displayed a typical pattern in which the accumulated liquidation cluster near the peak was cleared at once, resulting in a structural break." They continued, "Whether funds are reintroduced into the lower liquidity zone will determine short-term directionality," and projected, "In the near- to mid-term, it is highly likely that a corrective phase will continue amid increased volatility."

Ripple has reportedly received approval from the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to expand the scope of its payment services license. With this move, Ripple can further broaden the area in which it provides regulatory-based payment infrastructure to local financial institutions. On the 1st (local time), crypto asset (cryptocurrency) specialist media CryptoNews reported that Ripple's local unit Ripple Markets APAC received approval from the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to expand the scope of its existing Major Payment Institution (MPI) license. The approval allows Ripple to widen the scope of its regulated payment services offered to banks and corporate customers. Monica Long, Ripple's president, said, "Singapore is an important market with a clear regulatory environment," and "the expanded license will be a foundation for strengthening cross-border payment infrastructure for financial institutions." Ripple has positioned Singapore as a key strategic base since 2017 and obtained an MPI license in 2023 to provide regulatory-based digital token services. Fiona Murray, head of Ripple Asia-Pacific, said, "On-chain activity in the region increased by about 70% year-on-year," and "Singapore is at the center of this, and the expanded approval will be an opportunity to strengthen regulated services for institutional customers."

Spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) listed in the United States recorded net outflows of about $3.5 billion (about 5.1429 trillion won) last month, marking the largest monthly outflow since February. On the 1st (local time), crypto-focused media The Block reported that spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows for four consecutive weeks, with a total of $3.48 billion leaving over the month. However, toward the end of the month—ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday—funds flowed back in for three consecutive days, partially stabilizing the trend. BlackRock's IBIT accounted for a large portion of the outflows, recording net outflows of $2.34 billion last month. In particular, on the 18th of last month, the largest single-day outflow since listing—$523 million—left in one day. Nick Luck, head of research at LVRG, explained, "Outflows expanded as institutional investors booked profits after Bitcoin's record high and year-end portfolio adjustments overlapped," adding, "This is not easily interpreted as a loss of confidence in the underlying asset." He said, "Cumulative inflows remain positive and open interest in Bitcoin futures is also on the rise," adding, "Institutions are structurally maintaining 'long' positions while showing flows that are more sensitive to valuation." According to SosoValue, as of the 28th of last month, cumulative net inflows into U.S. Bitcoin ETFs totaled $57.71 billion, with net assets of $119.4 billion, representing about 6.5% of total Bitcoin market capitalization. Spot Ethereum (ETH) ETFs also recorded net outflows of $1.42 billion last month, the largest since their launch. However, at month-end there were five consecutive trading days of net inflows. Meanwhile, newly launched altcoin ETFs such as Solana and XRP continued to see net inflows since debut. The XRP ETF saw cumulative inflows of $666 million, and Litecoin and Hedera ETFs launched by Canary recorded net inflows of $7 million and $36 million, respectively. Luck analyzed, "Although new altcoin ETFs like Solana are attracting steady capital flows despite high volatility, institutional capital remains concentrated in Bitcoin and Ethereum," adding that this structure is likely to persist until regulatory clarity and on-chain stability are secured.

An analysis has suggested that in the Bitcoin (BTC) market the clear selling advantage of long-term holders (LTH) and the aggressive buying pressure of short-term holders (STH) are simultaneously strengthening. On the 1st (local time), Amr Taha, an analyst at on-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant, said, "Recently, the realized market cap of short-term investors exceeded $51 billion, marking the highest level since December last year," and explained, "This is a flow similar to the typical top signal where new/short-term funds rapidly flow in." According to CryptoQuant data, the STH realized market cap exceeded $51 billion as of the 23rd of last month, whereas the LTH realized market cap fell to around -$47 billion. It is interpreted as being close to a distribution phase in which long-term holders supply sell orders during an uptrend and short-term funds take them at high prices. Taha added, "In the past, periods in which STHs rapidly bought and LTHs sold were generally observed just before price corrections," and "the same pattern appeared in the adjustment phases of March and December 2024."

Dogecoin (DOGE) is retesting the key $0.14 support level amid a weak start for the first U.S. spot exchange-traded fund (ETF). Experts warn that with meme coin investor sentiment weakening, volatility across altcoins could widen and urge caution. Dogecoin's first spot ETF posts '$0' inflows on day one…Meme coin investor sentiment weakens Grayscale's first spot Dogecoin ETF (GDOG) recorded net inflows of $0 on its first day of listing, a disappointing start. This is a rare case for a single-asset ETF and is seen as reflecting recently weakened investor sentiment. On the 26th, crypto-focused media InvestorX reported, "GDOG began trading on NYSE Arca on the 24th (local time), but there were no initial net inflows of funds through authorized participants (APs)." GDOG's first-day trading volume was only about $1.41 million, falling far short of Bloomberg Intelligence's roughly $12 million estimate. Initial demand was noticeably lower compared with earlier launches such as the Bitwise Solana ETF (BSOL) and the Grayscale XRP ETF (GXRP). The widespread weakening in meme coin investor preference so far this year is also cited as a reason for the poor performance. Dogecoin and Shiba Inu (SHIB) have fallen 54% and 62% year-to-date, respectively, while Bonk (BONK) and Pepe (PEPE) have seen corrections exceeding 70%. Altcoin Vector analyzed, "Meme coins that once drove the market with brief, sharp gains now lack both narrative and momentum." Meanwhile, supply of crypto ETFs is expected to expand further. Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, projected, "Although specific launch schedules have not all been disclosed, given current trends, more than 100 new spot ETFs could be launched over the next six months." Some warn that simultaneous releases of numerous ETFs could raise concerns about capital dispersion. Dogecoin's key support at $0.14…Rebound or further decline? DOGE has given back most of its recent gains from as high as $0.156 and is rechecking support around $0.149. Market observers say defense of the $0.14 level could be a key short-term inflection point. As of 5:18 PM on the 29th, DOGE was trading at $0.14939 on the Binance USDT market, down 0.82% from the previous day (225 won on Upbit). NewsBTC researcher Ayush Jindal said, "If Dogecoin holds the $0.149 area, it could break resistance at $0.155–0.16 and then attempt additional gains toward $0.168–0.172. If it fails to hold support, it could retreat to $0.142 and then $0.13." Alejandro Arieche, an FXPro analyst, also commented, "Although some buying has recently entered Dogecoin, the technical flow does not yet look like a trend reversal signal." He added, "If the $0.14 support collapses, there is room for a drop to $0.10 with roughly a further 30% downside risk. Conversely, if the current area is defended, a short-term rebound to $0.18 and then $0.20 is possible." Rakesh Upadhyay, a Cointelegraph researcher, stated, "Dogecoin has a key resistance at $0.16 and major support at $0.14. If that support holds, it could rebound to $0.21 in the medium term, and in the near term it could trade in a range between $0.14 and $0.29." "Crypto market likely to 'catch its breath' after a short rebound…Watch altcoin volatility" With attention focused on Bitcoin's near-term direction, analysis suggests altcoins have also entered a waiting phase without a clear trend. Experts caution that with key price zones converging, short-term volatility could increase. Alex Kuptsikevich, senior analyst at FXPro, evaluated, "The crypto market, which has rebounded from recent lows, has paused to catch its breath, but the rebound momentum is not completely broken." He projected, "As sentiment indicators have moved out of the 'extreme fear' zone, buying could gradually return." He added, "If Bitcoin recovers $95,000, it could signal a resumption of the bull trend, but if it breaks $87,000, it could fall back into the low $80,000s and pull the entire market into a downturn." Crypto analytics firm SwissBlock also forecasted, "If Bitcoin breaks above $95,000, the altcoin market's reaction could lead to not just a simple rebound but a more rapid increase in buying." However, it added, "Given persistent market-wide risks, any relief rally is likely to be short-lived until that zone is decisively broken." It also noted, "Bitcoin's slide into the low $80,000s showed signs of investor 'capitulation' (mass selling), which could be a signal of an imminent rebound." Analyst Benjamin Cowen said on his YouTube channel, "Bitcoin may repeatedly test long-term support (the 200-week moving average) with adjustments and rebounds, so a period of increased volatility could continue over the next 6–12 months." He analyzed, "Considering trends in Bitcoin dominance, altcoins may show further weakness, but in the long term this could be a meaningful re-accumulation opportunity." Accordingly, markets are focusing on the likelihood of a U.S. rate cut in December and global liquidity indicators as key variables. In particular, concerns have risen about potential BOJ rate hikes and the unwinding of yen carry trades, highlighting growing uncertainty in global capital flows. Recent U.S. equity worries about AI overheating and tech stock adjustments are also cited as factors dampening risk asset sentiment generally. However, some argue that under the 'four-year cycle' theory, another prolonged bear market is unlikely. Crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe noted, "The recent correction showed patterns similar to the October mass liquidation phase, but large-cap 'blue-chip' altcoins saw relatively limited declines," adding, "Since the introduction of spot ETFs, the crypto market is moving into a complex cycle that cannot be explained solely by the traditional four-year theory." He added, "Bitcoin liquidity indicators point to a rebound, and altcoins are in an environment similar to past cycles where lows were formed." Minseung Kang, BloomingBit reporter minriver@bloomingbit.io

Institutional funds have been rapidly flowing into spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for XRP (XRP) and Solana (SOL), increasing expectations of further gains for the two assets. On the 25th (local time), crypto-focused media outlet DL News reported, "The newly listed XRP and SOL ETFs in the U.S. recorded net inflows of about $955 million over a one-month period." Over the same period, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw net outflows of about $3.7 billion and $1.6 billion, respectively, creating a contrast. Ray Youssef, CEO of NoOnes, said, "Regulated ETF products act as a channel to expand institutional exposure to assets beyond Bitcoin," and "This flow will lift XRP and Solana prices by about 33% and 10%, respectively." Analysts have suggested that XRP could rise to $2.50 and Solana to $160. As of the 25th, XRP was trading around $2.20 and Solana around $136. Recent comments by Federal Reserve officials about the possibility of rate cuts, which have increased risk-on sentiment, are also seen as contributing to the rise in demand for altcoin ETFs. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a rate cut in December has risen to the 80% range.

Ethereum (ETH) is about to undergo the major technical upgrade 'Fusaka'. The market expects that ETH must recover the $3,170 level in the short term for a full bullish reversal signal to be confirmed. On the 25th (local time), crypto asset (cryptocurrency) media The Coin Republic reported, "Fusaka, Ethereum's technical upgrade, is expected to be applied within days, and is anticipated to improve network performance such as fee reductions and shorter confirmation times." On-chain indicators show profit-and-loss metrics such as NUPL rebounding from low levels, suggesting selling pressure is easing. However, inflows into the network are not yet clear, so the prevailing view is that a trend reversal can only be confirmed if the price clearly breaks above $3,170. Market analysis also suggests that if the $3,170 resistance is broken, price ranges up to $3,240 and $3,630 could open.

Ripple said adoption of virtual asset (cryptocurrency)-based payment infrastructure is rapidly expanding in sub-Saharan Africa and Turkey. On the 25th (local time), Ripple's head of Middle East and Africa, Lis Meric, wrote on X (formerly Twitter), "Adoption of Ripple solutions is noticeably increasing in both regions," and added, "As the regulatory environment is being organized, demand is becoming clearer." According to Meric, sub-Saharan Africa's cryptocurrency-based payment volume increased by 52% from July last year to June this year, reaching about $205 billion. Of that, stablecoins accounted for 43% of total transaction volume. In Turkey, the Turkish lira has plunged 80% since 2021 and inflation has reached 70%, and it is reported that more than half of adults hold virtual assets. According to media reports, Ripple is continuing to expand its African payments business this year. In March, it partnered with local payments firm Chipper Cash to start a Ripple Payments-based cross-border remittance service, and last year it expanded its in-Africa payments network through cooperation with Onafriq. In June, participants in the Ripple Impact drought insurance pilot program held in Kenya received RLUSD-based insurance coverage. Meanwhile, XRP rose as much as 9% intraday on the 24th to $2.28, boosted by the effect of the ETF launch. The listing of XRP ETFs by Franklin Templeton and Grayscale on NYSE Arca the previous day, which expanded market access, was cited as a factor in the rise. Bitwise's XRP ETF is also reported to have attracted $118 million in inflows over the past week.

U.S. Solana (SOL) spot ETFs have continued to receive inflows for 20 trading days since launch without a single net outflow. On the 25th (local time), crypto-focused media The Block reported that the six U.S. Solana spot ETFs recorded net inflows totaling 58 million dollars the previous day. The Bitwise (BS0L) product saw inflows of 39.5 million dollars, accounting for the majority of the overall increase. This is the largest inflow since November 3. Since first listing on October 28, the Solana spot ETFs have absorbed a total of 568.24 million dollars over 20 trading days. The six funds' total net assets amount to 843.81 million dollars, which is about 1.09% of Solana's total market capitalization. Nick Luck, LVRG Research Director, said, "The Solana spot ETFs have shown stronger-than-expected institutional demand even in a market downturn," adding, "Diversified demand for alternative assets beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum is flowing into Solana." He went on to analyze, "While short-term selling pressure remains, ETF inflows can alleviate supply pressure and provide a basis for a rebound when the market stabilizes." Jeff May, BTSE Chief Operating Officer, also explained, "Several traditional financial firms are choosing Solana-network-based tokenization," noting, "There are real cases such as xStocks, which tokenize U.S. stocks and ETFs." He added, "However, Solana's recent price has been following the overall market's weak trend, so it will take time for ETF inflows to lead to a price rebound."

Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading in a narrow range from the $85,000 level to the low $89,000s, continuing a limited recovery since last week's sharp decline. The market showed a short-term rebound, but the prevailing assessment is that it is still too early to deem it a trend reversal. On the 25th (local time), according to crypto-focused media The Block, Bitcoin traded between $85,000 and $89,150 earlier in the week. Weekend gains pushed the total crypto market capitalization back to about $3.07 trillion, and Ethereum and Solana traded in the $2,900s and around $136, respectively, showing some recovery. However, the market rebound was limited to major assets. Small- and mid-cap altcoins remained relatively weak, having not fully absorbed last week's leveraged liquidation shock. ETF flows also continued to diverge. The Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $151 million as risk-off sentiment persisted, while Ethereum and Solana ETFs saw inflows of $97 million and $58 million, respectively. The Solana ETF recorded net inflows for 20 consecutive trading days since its launch. Over the past few weeks, the global crypto ETP market has experienced large-scale redemptions. According to CoinShares data, global crypto ETPs saw net outflows of $1.9 billion last week, marking the third-largest outflow since 2018. Timothy Misir, head of BRN Research, analyzed, "While Bitcoin is being chosen as a risk-off asset, selective rotation of long-term capital into Ethereum and Solana is occurring." He added, "Key indicators such as trading volume, fees, and realized market capitalization have all weakened," and explained, "This is a typical late-stage correction pattern in which market participants have returned to a wait-and-see mode rather than a panic sell-off." He noted, however, that short-term holders remain in large unrealized loss zones, so it is too early to view this as a definitive bottom signal. Misir said, "Bitcoin still remains in a 'high-volatility accumulation zone' between $84,000 and $90,000," and analyzed, "Some conditions for bottom formation are present, but it is too early to confirm durability." This week, delayed major macro indicators including the Producer Price Index (PPI), retail sales, initial jobless claims, GDP, and core PCE are scheduled to be released in succession, and analysts have pointed to this as a 'decisive macroeconomic window.' Ruslan Lenka, head of YouHodler Market, projected, "As the U.S. stock market is currently in a correction, Bitcoin's short-term direction will likely be heavily influenced by equities." He added, "Institutions have reduced exposure and retail investor sentiment is subdued, so a cautious trend is likely to continue for the time being."