Bitcoin ‘rises alone,’ tops $76,000…next variable is ‘Powell’s mouth’
Bitcoin reclaims $76,000 for the first time in six weeks Spot ETFs attract $970 million in fresh inflows in a week June 17–18 FOMC…focus on ‘Powell’s mouth’ Many expect rate cuts to be delayed Bitcoin, which has been trending higher since the outbreak of the Iran war, rose above $76,000 on the 17th, setting a new six-week high. This stands in contrast to weakness over the same period in gold and the Nasdaq index. However, as concerns grow that high oil prices could fuel inflation, some warn that Bitcoin’s rally could falter if the Federal Reserve delays its first rate cut this year or raises rates. According to the USDT market on global crypto exchange Binance, Bitcoin touched $76,000 intraday for the first time since Feb. 4. It later gave back part of the gain and was trading around $74,300 as of 4:48 p.m. Bitcoin, which had slipped to the $60,000 level last month, is up about 8% since the war began. Over the same period, the Nasdaq (-2%), S&P 500 (-3%) and gold (-5%) fell. The move is seen as the result of investors rotating preemptively into risk assets such as Bitcoin on expectations that war risks will ease. Institutional inflows are also increasing. According to Sosovalue, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted net inflows for six straight sessions from the 9th through the 16th. Total inflows over the period reached $968.94 million (about 1.4456 trillion won). ETF inflows are now acting not only as downside support for Bitcoin but also as an upside catalyst. BTC Markets analyst Rachel Lucas said, “In particular, BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) accounted for about 78% of the net inflows,” adding, “It appears to be buying driven by institutional conviction.” The variable is ‘Powell’s mouth’…rate direction in focus, too Markets are watching the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on June 17–18 (local time) and Chair Powell’s remarks. While a hold is widely expected, risk assets such as Bitcoin could take a hit if Powell delivers hawkish comments. Another key will be how FOMC participants signal the future path of the policy rate via the dot plot. Goldman Sachs on the 12th pushed back its expected timing of rate cuts from June and September to September and December, respectively. Morgan Stanley also shared the same view. Market pricing is even more conservative. In the fed funds futures market, the probability of a September cut is effectively not priced in, and only one cut in December is currently reflected. Any additional cuts are pushed back to the second half of 2027 or later. Some are also raising concerns about a rate hike. Matthew Luzzetti, chief economist at Deutsche Bank, said, “The possibility of a Fed rate hike—something that would have been hard to imagine just two weeks ago—is being discussed,” adding, “While the actual likelihood is limited, some Fed officials have begun to consider the rate-hike option.” Hwang Doo-hyun, Bloomingbit reporter cow5361@bloomingbit.io
