Minseung Kang

As Ethereum (ETH) enters a phase of narrowing price swings without a clear trend, analysts say a major short-term move may be imminent. Recent price action has been quiet, but the technical setup is seen as accumulating energy. According to TheNews, a cryptocurrency-focused media outlet, on the 12th, Ethereum has been building a support base around $3,100 after a sharp drop earlier this month. The price has repeatedly rebounded above an upward trendline, while being capped by a descending resistance line overhead, gradually tightening the range. Recent trading has seen limited ups and downs. A notable feature is that each pullback has attracted buying earlier than before, pushing the lows gradually higher. Trading volume has also declined, reinforcing the view that the market is in a wait-and-see phase rather than dispersing. The market sees the current action as a textbook “compression zone.” With highs capped but lows rising, a decisive move in either direction could trigger a sharp swing. Crypto trader Gainmuse said, “After breaking out to the upside from a short-term range, Ethereum is holding above that zone,” adding that “as long as the uptrend line holds, the technical structure remains constructive.” The key level is the $3,080–$3,120 zone. If this support holds, pressure could continue to build toward a break above overhead resistance. Conversely, if the uptrend line breaks, attention could shift back to a range-bound market or a corrective phase, analysts said. While Ethereum is not showing a large move immediately, the market is watching closely for signs that its price structure could reveal a direction soon.

Bitcoin (BTC) is struggling below $91,000 as exchange-traded fund (ETF) outflows coincide with bearish signals from the futures market. Having failed to break through near-term technical resistance, investor sentiment also appears somewhat subdued. According to FXStreet on the 12th, Bitcoin rose to as high as $92,519 early in the session before turning lower and falling back below $91,000. It is currently searching for direction while facing resistance near $91,548, the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA). Softening institutional demand is also weighing on the market. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of about $680 million last week. With funds exiting for four consecutive days, there is growing assessment that institutional buying via ETFs is weakening. The derivatives market is also showing a sell-side bias. Over the past 24 hours, about 50.9% of Bitcoin futures positions were tallied as bets on declines, with the long-to-short ratio at around 0.96. This suggests market participants are maintaining a cautious stance in the near term. The macro backdrop is also not supportive for Bitcoin. As geopolitical tensions between the United States and some countries persist, uncertainty ahead of a U.S. Supreme Court ruling related to tariffs, along with President Trump's remarks about capping credit card interest rates, are also stoking broader risk-off sentiment. Still, potential near-term catalysts remain. The U.S. December consumer price index (CPI), due this week, is a key focus for markets. Some in the market are discussing the possibility that core CPI could cool to around 2.8%, and if inflation pressures ease, expectations for a policy-rate cut by early 2026 could revive. In general, expectations of rate cuts tend to be positive for high-risk assets such as Bitcoin. The outlet said, "If Bitcoin holds the $90,000 support level and reclaims the 50-day EMA, an upside attempt could extend to around $94,588." On the other hand, it added that "momentum indicators have yet to show a clear recovery signal," warning that "if $90,000 breaks, the door is open to a pullback toward around $86,420."

As news breaks of a probe involving Jerome Powell, chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), analysts say Bitcoin (BTC) could regain attention for its asset characteristics if political uncertainty intensifies. According to cryptocurrency-focused media outlet CoinDesk on the 12th, U.S. federal prosecutors have opened a criminal investigation into Powell over testimony he gave at a Senate hearing regarding a renovation of the Fed’s buildings. Powell said his stance is that the matter was "the result of conducting monetary policy based on standards judged to serve the public interest, not the president’s preference." President Donald Trump has publicly criticized Powell and the Fed amid demands for interest-rate cuts. Markets say it could weigh on risk assets broadly in the near term. However, if controversy grows over political interference in monetary policy, Bitcoin could also be revisited as an asset relatively free from government control. Analysts at crypto exchange BitUnix said that "when questions are raised about confidence in the dollar and central-bank independence, decentralized assets can receive a narrative-driven risk premium," adding that "if political intervention becomes structurally embedded in monetary policy, Bitcoin’s role could be strengthened." Meanwhile, investor-sentiment gauges point to gradual improvement. Matrixport said the moving average of the Fear & Greed Index is forming a bottom. By contrast, Nansen data show that traders classified as so-called "smart money" are maintaining positions betting on a short-term decline in Bitcoin, leaving interpretations mixed. The outlet reported that "the market is watching whether, if political and institutional uncertainty increases further in the wake of the Powell probe, Bitcoin can break away from moving in tandem with risk assets and be re-rated as an alternative asset."

Last week, the market for digital asset investment products saw large net outflows. The move effectively reversed most of this year’s inflows to date, a trend attributed to fading expectations that the US central bank—the Federal Reserve (Fed)—will deliver an early rate cut. According to CoinShares, a cryptocurrency-focused asset manager, digital asset investment products recorded total net outflows of $454 million (about 666.7 billion won) last week. Funds exited for four consecutive days, pushing cumulative outflows to $1.3 billion—nearly offsetting the $1.5 billion in net inflows logged over two days earlier this year. CoinShares said investor sentiment deteriorated sharply as perceptions spread that the likelihood of a policy rate cut in March has diminished following recently released macroeconomic indicators. By region, the US led the outflows. The US market posted net outflows of $569 million, the only market to record negative fund flows. By asset, bitcoin (BTC) was hit the hardest. Bitcoin investment products saw net outflows of $405 million last week. However, short bitcoin products—used to bet on a decline—also recorded $9.2 million in outflows, suggesting mixed views on market direction. Ethereum (ETH) investment products also posted $116 million in net outflows, while multi-asset products saw $21 million leave. Products linked to Binance and Aave (AAVE) recorded modest outflows of $3.7 million and $1.7 million, respectively. Meanwhile, some altcoins continued to draw inflows. XRP recorded $45.8 million, Solana (SOL) $32.8 million, and Sui (SUI) $7.6 million in net inflows, showing relatively resilient momentum.

Bitcoin (BTC) gave back all of its gains logged during Asian hours, slipping back below $91,000. With risk-off sentiment strengthening across global financial markets, analysts say mounting correction pressure has emerged in tandem with weakness in tech stocks. According to cryptocurrency-focused media outlet CoinDesk on the 12th, bitcoin traded above $92,000 during Asian hours, but quickly fell as European trading got underway, sliding to around the $90,000 level. Markets are also citing tensions between Jerome Powell, chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), and President Trump as an additional headwind, as it is amplifying uncertainty across financial markets. Against this backdrop of political and monetary-policy uncertainty, investors are moving to reduce exposure to risk assets. Traditional safe havens have continued to climb. Both gold and silver prices set fresh record highs. Gold is trading around $4,600 per ounce, while silver is up more than 5% in a single day, trading above $84 per ounce. By market capitalization, gold and silver stand at roughly $32 trillion and $4.7 trillion, respectively, ranking as the world’s No. 1 and No. 2 assets. Against this backdrop, debate over bitcoin’s asset characteristics is being reignited. While it has been described as a neutral store of value, recent price action is seen as moving similarly to leveraged tech stocks. Indeed, the day’s pullback tracked broader weakness in U.S. tech shares. Invesco QQQ, the exchange-traded fund that tracks the Nasdaq 100 Index, fell 1% in premarket trading. Still, shares of Strategy, a company known for its bitcoin-holding strategy, edged higher. The market is watching whether additional bitcoin purchases will follow comments by Chairman Michael Saylor referencing “Big Orange.” If such buying proceeds, observers say Strategy may tap its at-the-market (ATM) equity issuance program. The structure is linked to the company’s perpetual preferred stock, Stretch, which was reported to be trading in premarket around its par value of $100. In the near term, markets are focusing on whether bitcoin will continue moving in lockstep with tech stocks alongside broader risk-asset trends.

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has extended the review deadline for two cryptocurrency-related exchange-traded funds (ETFs). According to Cointelegraph, a cryptocurrency-focused media outlet, on the 12th the SEC said in a Federal Register notice that it was extending the decision deadline for the Pudgy Penguins PENGU ETF filed by Canary Capital and T. Rowe Price’s active crypto ETF. The two products are targeting listings on Cboe BZX and NYSE Arca, respectively. The commission is reported to have secured up to an additional 45 days to further examine issues including market structure, investor protection, and the potential for price manipulation. The proposals are being reviewed under the SEC’s 19b-4 process. The PENGU ETF is designed to provide exposure linked to the Pudgy Penguins ecosystem, an non-fungible token (NFT) project. By contrast, T. Rowe Price’s active crypto ETF is an actively managed product that diversifies across a range of digital assets beyond bitcoin and ether, and is seen as emblematic of traditional asset managers expanding multi-asset crypto strategies. The outlet reported that “this review delay does not represent a final decision to approve or deny, and is interpreted as a signal that the SEC is taking a more cautious approach to structures that go beyond existing bitcoin- and ether-focused products.”

Bitcoin (BTC) briefly gave up $91,000. As of 17:39 on the 12th, based on Binance’s USDT market, BTC was trading at $90,600, down 0.11% from the previous day (133.71 million won on Upbit). Meanwhile, according to CrypPrice, the Korea premium for major cryptoassets (cryptocurrencies) such as Bitcoin (BTC) stood at 1.13% on the day.

Stablecoin issuer Tether has reportedly moved to exert control over large flows of funds by freezing five wallets on the Tron network over the past 24 hours. On the 12th, crypto-focused outlet Wu Blockchain said on X (formerly Twitter) that "Tether froze USDT totaling $182 million," adding that "the amount frozen per wallet ranged from at least $12 million to as much as $50 million." The specific rationale behind the move was not disclosed. According to the report, all of the wallets targeted for the freeze were confirmed to be addresses on the Tron blockchain. Tether has previously frozen certain addresses as part of anti-money-laundering (AML) efforts and sanctions compliance, but it did not specify the exact reason in this case either. Wu Blockchain, citing data from blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis, added that "as of the end of last year, 84% of total illicit transaction volume was recorded in stablecoins." Meanwhile, according to an AMLBot report, Tether froze assets worth about $3.3 billion from 2023 to 2025 and blacklisted a total of 7,268 wallet addresses.

An analysis suggests that as Bitcoin inflows to Binance from short-term holders have declined markedly, near-term selling pressure is easing. On the 12th, ArabChain analyst said via a CryptoQuant Quicktake report that "since January, the amount of Bitcoin from short-term holders flowing into Binance has fallen noticeably compared with November and December last year." He explained, "In November last year, the 7-day moving average of short-term holder Bitcoin inflows exceeded 12,000 BTC, reaching a very high peak," adding that "with Bitcoin trading around $84,000 at the time, panic selling or aggressive profit-taking became concentrated, creating strong selling pressure." He continued, "In December, inflows from short-term holders persisted, but the intensity fell sharply, and the inflow size did not exceed 7,000 BTC," adding that "during this period, Bitcoin entered a sideways phase after a sharp drop and attempted only a limited rebound." He assessed that clearer signs of easing are emerging in recent trends. He said, "Current short-term holder inflows to Binance remain below 6,000 BTC, showing a clear difference from the November peak." He also noted, "The share of short-term holders on Binance is also maintaining a relatively stable trend, and no new wave of large-scale selling by short-term traders is being observed." The analyst said, "This suggests that a significant portion of immediately sellable supply was already distributed to the market during the previous correction," adding that "as direct selling pressure diminishes, Bitcoin has room to form a price bottom and attempt a gradual stabilization phase." However, he added, "If short-term holder inflows surge again, it would be a warning signal that negative volatility could resume," and "for now, whether inflows remain below November levels will be the key variable determining the near-term direction."

Binance is adding three spot trading pairs. According to a notice from global digital asset (cryptocurrency) exchange Binance on the 12th, Binance will list ▲LINK/USD1 ▲PEPE/USD1 ▲USDC/MXN trading pairs on the spot market starting at 08:00 on the 13th (UTC, 17:00 Korea time). MXN is Mexico’s legal tender currency. At the same time, trading bot services will also be supported for these trading pairs. Trading in these pairs may be restricted depending on users’ country or region of residence, and only users who have completed account verification can participate. Trading is currently restricted in some countries and regions, including Canada, the United States, the Netherlands, and Iran.

An analysis suggests that if the price of Bitcoin (BTC) breaks above $93,000, liquidation pressure on short positions could rise sharply across major centralized exchanges (CEXs). According to BlockBeats, a media outlet specializing in virtual assets (crypto), CoinGlass— a derivatives data analytics platform—estimates that if Bitcoin trades above $93,000, cumulative short-liquidation intensity across major CEXs could reach $352 million (about KRW 510bn). Conversely, if Bitcoin falls below the $90,000 level, cumulative long-liquidation intensity could expand to around $637 million (about KRW 935.5bn). This implies that on a downside break, comparatively greater liquidation pressure could concentrate on long positions. A liquidation heatmap is used as a reference indicator to gauge how much impact market liquidity could face when Bitcoin reaches certain price zones. The higher the liquidation intensity at a given price level, the more likely liquidity waves will amplify and volatility will increase when the price is hit. The outlet added that "a liquidation heatmap is not an indicator of the exact number of contracts or the precise dollar amount that will actually be liquidated," noting that "the metric is focused on the relative importance—i.e., intensity—of liquidation clusters formed across each price band."

Stablecoins and RWA tokenization megatrends Intensifying infrastructure rivalry led by Ethereum and Solana The broader digital-asset market undergoes structural reshuffling 2026 optimism intact amid near-term volatility Experts say expectations are building this year for a structural reshuffling across the board—centered on stablecoins and real-world asset (RWA) tokenization—spanning decentralized finance (DeFi), privacy, prediction markets and more. Still, with the possibility of heightened volatility in the near term, the overall view is that the broader trend leans toward cautious optimism. Stablecoin and RWA tokenization megatrends…Ethereum and Solana seen as key beneficiaries This year, stablecoins and RWA tokenization are seen as an unstoppable megatrend, with analysis suggesting Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) are likely to be the biggest beneficiaries. Coinbase, a global digital-asset (cryptocurrency) exchange, projected that “stablecoins are a core use case in the digital-asset ecosystem, and their market cap could expand to roughly $1.2 trillion by end-2028 as use cases broaden.” As of today, stablecoin market cap stands at $307.5 billion based on DeFiLlama. Coinbase added that “RWA drew significant attention last year, and tokenized equities are only now entering an early stage,” noting that “they improve capital efficiency and can enable higher leverage than traditional finance. Rapid growth is expected ahead.” Global asset manager 21Shares also expects both stablecoin circulating supply and the size of the RWA market to be likely to grow by roughly 3x (about $1 trillion) and 10x (about $500 billion), respectively, by year-end. Accordingly, DeFi total value locked (TVL) could expand to around $300 billion by year-end—roughly double the current level (about $150 billion). The industry also expects DeFi use cases to broaden, particularly around decentralized perpetual futures exchanges (Perp DEXs). Luke Youngblood, founder of Moonwell, said, “In 2026, stablecoin issuance by banks and fintechs could mark an inflection point for the broader digital-asset industry, and the possibility of stablecoin market cap surpassing $1 trillion is also being raised.” He added that while discussions are currently centered on US financial institutions, “the ripple effects could spread globally,” and that “in Asia, stablecoins may expand beyond a trading tool into payment infrastructure.” Some also note that the trajectory will depend on market-structure legislation such as the CLARITY Act and how traditional banks respond. Bullish calls for Ethereum and Solana are also emerging. In a research report, global asset manager Bitwise said, “As stablecoin and RWA projects proliferate this year, Ethereum will strengthen its presence as core infrastructure.” It added, “Solana, too, is likely to see qualitative ecosystem expansion as infrastructure and application projects such as Render gain traction.” Render is a decentralized GPU rendering network that utilizes Solana. Can privacy-coin strength persist…banking and regulatory risks on trial With structural demand for privacy coins increasing, the key issue this year is whether they clash with the regulatory environment. Among privacy coins last year, Zcash (ZEC) posted the most standout performance, surging 861%, while Monero (XMR) and Dash (DASH) rose 123% and 12%, respectively. US venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) said that in a market where it is becoming harder to differentiate on fees or performance alone, “privacy is emerging as a new competitive factor,” adding that “users are increasingly choosing networks with stronger privacy.” Cypherpunk, which strategically stockpiles ZEC, assessed that “privacy blockchains could serve as a countermeasure to excessive transparency in existing financial infrastructure in the age of artificial intelligence (AI).” Even as experts acknowledge the sustainability of the gains, they point to regulatory risk as the key variable. Jason Fernandez, co-founder of AdLunam, said, “In the short term, tighter regulation could spur privacy demand, but in the medium to long term it’s hard to rule out the possibility of conflicts with banks and authorities.” Crypto exchange KuCoin also said that “regulatory risk and the macro backdrop could affect future returns for privacy coins.” The industry is forming a cautious optimism that places greater weight on structural growth potential. Shiv Shankar, CEO of Boundless, said, “It’s hard to make a definitive call on whether privacy coins themselves will grow, but investment across privacy technologies is likely to attract significant interest.” He added that “even without full anonymity, providing only a level of privacy comparable to what people are used to in traditional finance could materially expand on-chain use of assets,” and that “privacy technology will move beyond the concept stage and crystallize into real products and services.” Prediction-market volume seen reaching $100 billion…institutionalization and AI convergence in focus The potential for rapid growth in decentralized prediction platforms such as Polymarket is also being discussed this year. 21Shares analyzed that “as macro uncertainty—such as rates and geopolitics—intensifies this year, annual prediction-market trading volume could approach $100 billion,” adding that “if regulation by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is eased, major institutional investors are likely to step in directly.” Attention is also turning to the possibility of combining AI with prediction markets. Andy Hall, a Stanford University professor of political economy and research adviser at a16z, said, “This year, prediction markets will become larger and more sophisticated, with odds reflecting in real time not just elections but complex social phenomena,” adding that “as AI agents analyze vast amounts of information, forecast accuracy will improve and structural changes could emerge in trading competitiveness within prediction markets.” In particular, stablecoins are becoming a core payment and liquidity instrument within prediction markets. As an alternative to minimizing outcome disputes, decentralized governance and large language model (LLM)-based oracles are also being proposed as potential adjudication mechanisms. Oracles are technologies that bring web and real-world data from outside the blockchain into the network, and are drawing attention as a way to enhance trust in prediction markets. 2026 digital-asset market: ‘cautious optimism’…volatility risks amid structural reshuffling Experts say that while the digital-asset market this year is seeing progress toward institutionalization and expectations for liquidity shifts, warnings about near-term volatility are also being raised. In its annual report, Coinbase said, “This year, the altcoin market is in a phase of structural transition as growing institutional adoption intersects with infrastructure maturation,” adding that “the clearer the regulatory framework becomes, the more the role of digital assets in the core financial system will expand.” However, it noted that “the overall view is closer to cautious optimism, but the possibility of increased volatility remains a risk factor.” Global asset manager VanEck also projected that “2026 is more likely to be a consolidation and stagnation phase (preparing for an advance) than a period of sharp rallies or collapse.” It added, “Leverage in the digital-asset market has been unwound to a significant extent recently, and on-chain activity is showing gradual signs of improvement,” and said, “If financial conditions ease, digital assets could be among the biggest beneficiaries. We maintain a buy stance on Bitcoin.” Crypto strategist Michaël van de Poppe said, “The recent easing of US banks’ supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) and the stance on managing short-term liquidity suggest liquidity provision ahead,” adding, “If a pro-Trump Fed chair is appointed in May, the pace of rate cuts could accelerate further. This could create a supportive environment for risk assets broadly.” He added, “Altcoins are at the tail end of a long bear market that has lasted four years, and strength in gold and silver is boosting expectations for a crypto rebound,” and that “this year, Bitcoin, Ethereum and blue-chip altcoins are likely to lead the market.” Improving regulation is also cited as a key variable that could shape this year’s market trajectory. The CLARITY Act, which addresses the broader regulatory framework for the digital-asset industry, is set to enter full review starting with discussions at the US Senate Banking Committee on the 15th. If a consensus is reached, a vote in the first half is also being discussed. Earlier, SEC Chair Paul Atkins also said regulatory overhauls related to digital assets would begin in earnest this year. Still, the market is also discussing the possibility of increased volatility for the time being. Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen said, “Stablecoin dominance, which broke above its October–December highs last year, suggests it could rise further over the next few months,” adding, “The crypto market could see a short-term rebound through this summer, but downside pressure is expected to be significant, making uncertainty management important.” Cowen said, “If Ethereum, which has rebounded in the short term, fails to reclaim key support within a month or two, it is likely to continue retracing,” while adding that “the second half of this year could become a potential accumulation zone for Bitcoin and altcoins.” Crypto data analytics firm Santiment said, “As the year begins, optimism is forming again in the market, but Bitcoin has yet to show a clear direction around the psychological benchmark of $90,000, and Ethereum likewise around the $3,500 area.” It added, “Meme coin Pepe (PEPE) surged 41% in just the past week, but this is a standalone spike rather than a broad-based rally, and is interpreted as a signal of rising volatility,” and analyzed that “the altcoin market is likely to continue moving within a range for the time being, repeating rebounds and pullbacks.” Kang Min-seung, Bloomingbit reporter minriver@bloomingbit.io

U.S. asset manager Bitwise has received approval to list a Chainlink (LINK) spot exchange-traded fund (ETF). According to Coinpedia on the 6th, Bitwise obtained approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to list a Chainlink spot ETF on NYSE Arca under the ticker 'CLNK'. The ETF is expected to begin trading as early as this week. CLNK is designed to allow investors to gain exposure to price movements without directly holding Chainlink tokens. To encourage initial inflows, management fees will be waived for 3 months after launch, with the fee waiver covering up to $500 million in assets. Thereafter, an annual management fee of 0.34% will apply. The fund raised $2.5 million in seed capital, and Chainlink custody will be handled by Coinbase Custody. Cash asset custody is managed by BNY Mellon. Staking was listed as an additional objective, but a concrete implementation schedule has not been finalized. Meanwhile, Chainlink's price showed strength after the ETF approval. LINK rose more than 11% over the past week and was trading around $13.8, with trading volume increasing by about 45%. In the derivatives market, open interest expanded to about $665 million, indicating flows of new capital.

Global crypto exchange Binance will officially list Brevis(Brevis·BREV) perpetual futures. According to a Binance notice on the 6th, the USDⓈ-M BREVUSDT perpetual futures contract listed in the pre-market will be converted to a perpetual futures contract from 2:00 p.m. that day (UTC·Korea time 11:00 p.m.). The conversion process may take up to 3 hours depending on market volatility and index price formation, and during this period existing positions and trades are not affected. The settlement asset for the BREVUSDT perpetual futures is USDT, and the maximum leverage is set at 5x. The funding fee settlement cycle is 4 hours, and multi-asset mode is also supported. Meanwhile, Binance said it will also add Brevis (BREV) to some services such as Simple Earn, Convert, and Margin at the same time. However, it added that futures listings are not linked to spot or other service support, and a futures listing does not guarantee a spot listing.

Dollar-linked stablecoin USDC has recorded faster growth than Tether's USDT for two consecutive years. This is interpreted as an effect of expanding demand for regulatory-friendly stablecoins centered in the United States. On the 6th, according to crypto-focused media CoinDesk, Circle's USDC market capitalization increased 73% during 2025 to reach $75.12 billion. Over the same period, USDT's market capitalization rose 36% to $186.6 billion. Previously in 2024, USDC also grew 77%, surpassing USDT (50%). USDC uses a structure fully backed by cash and short-term U.S. Treasury securities, and its reserves are held at regulated financial institutions. Circle holds money-transmission licenses in numerous U.S. states and, in Europe, has been operating under an e-money license according to the MiCA regulatory framework since 2024. By contrast, USDT operates without formal regulatory approval in the U.S. and Europe. Tether is registered as a digital asset service provider in El Salvador, and there are regional differences in its reserve composition and regulatory status. Market participants point to regulatory clarity as a major factor behind USDC's growth. After the passage of the GENIUS Act, which established a legal framework for payment stablecoins in the United States, financial institutions and large corporations are reported to be showing interest in stablecoins that meet regulatory requirements. In practice, USDC is being used in the settlement and financial operations of global financial and payment firms such as Visa, Mastercard, and BlackRock. In a report last year, JPMorgan stated, "USDC has high credibility among institutional investors and regulated entities because it provides reserve transparency and a regular audit system." Currently, USDC and USDT account for more than 80% of the total stablecoin market capitalization of $312 billion. The outlet reported, "The industry is watching whether future expansion of the stablecoin market will concentrate growth in the existing two major stablecoins or be dispersed to other stablecoins."

Bitcoin (BTC) entered a phase of gradual stabilization within a box range after a correction in the fourth quarter of last year, according to analysis. However, structural demand recovery is limited, so short-term volatility expansion is also possible. On the 6th, on-chain data analytics company Glassnode said on X (formerly Twitter), "Bitcoin is currently attempting to stabilize in the $80,000–$95,000 range, and momentum recovery and easing selling pressure are appearing simultaneously," but added, "the options market is reflecting the possibility of increased short-term volatility." According to Glassnode, selling pressure in the spot market has eased and trading volume has slightly increased. This is interpreted as an improvement in liquidity without excessive speculative demand. In the derivatives market, open interest has risen gradually without extreme position concentration, and perpetual futures have again shown a net buying bias. Conversely, the options market saw a reduction in open interest alongside heightened volatility expectations. Glassnode analyzed this as a signal that short-term price volatility could widen. US spot Bitcoin ETF fund flows have turned to net inflows, showing signs of institutional demand recovery, but realized capital increases on-chain remain sluggish, leaving structural buying limited. A high proportion of short-term holders was also cited as a factor that increases price sensitivity. Market participants say that since Bitcoin has passed the adjustment phase and entered a vulnerable sideways stage, attention is needed to both further upside attempts and short-term profit-taking pressure.

Concerns about Bitcoin (BTC)'s long-term security structure have resurfaced. As quantum computing technology is advancing faster than expected, analysis suggests that a large portion of Bitcoin's supply is structurally vulnerable. On the 6th, according to DL News, David Duong, head of investment research at Coinbase, said, "About one-third of the Bitcoin supply appears vulnerable to long-term quantum computing attacks due to exposed cryptographic information." He assessed that "Bitcoin's long-term security may be entering a new phase." Duong said, "The quantum computing threat is still in its early stages, but it is approaching faster than the market expects," and assessed, "It is evolving from a mere theoretical risk into a structural risk." He added, "Investors are increasingly aware that the quantum computing risk may arrive sooner than expected." He explained that wallets with past transaction histories, in particular, are more vulnerable because their public keys are exposed. Duong pointed out, "The cryptographic structure of wallets with exposed public keys is relatively susceptible to brute-force attacks," and "This accounts for a significant portion of the total Bitcoin supply." Regarding security structure, he noted that signature schemes, rather than mining, are the key risk factor. He said, "Quantum mining is not a realistic threat at present," but emphasized, "Signature security is the most important issue." He explained, "If quantum computers achieve sufficient performance, it cannot be ruled out that private keys could be derived from public keys to steal assets." In this regard, global asset manager BlackRock also listed quantum computing as a major risk factor in last year's Bitcoin spot ETF prospectus. The market observes that short-term effects may be limited, but in the medium to long term, discussions on responses across Bitcoin's security system may become unavoidable.

U.S. major investment bank Morgan Stanley appears to have begun the process of launching trust products backed by Bitcoin (BTC) and Solana (SOL). On the 6th, crypto-focused channel Unfolded reported via X (formerly Twitter) that "Morgan Stanley recently filed S-1 registration applications with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for a Bitcoin trust and a Solana trust, respectively." An S-1 is a registration document that must be filed before selling a new security to the general public. The filing is interpreted as a preparatory step for Morgan Stanley to bring trust products based on major crypto assets into the formal system. However, specific details such as the trusts' structures, launch timing, and whether they will actually be approved have not yet been disclosed. Whether the products will be launched is expected to be determined by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's review.

Analysts have suggested that U.S. intervention in Venezuela, combined with an expansionary fiscal and monetary policy stance, could continue to create a favorable environment for risk assets, including Bitcoin (BTC). If the policy direction remains to overheat the economy while suppressing energy price increases, an expansion of dollar liquidity could act as a medium- to long-term upward factor for the virtual asset market. On the 6th, Arthur Hayes, founder of virtual asset (cryptocurrency) investment firm Maelstrom, wrote on his personal blog that "the top priority of U.S. politics is elections, and the key variable that determines elections is the economy." He said, "the most direct means of raising nominal GDP is credit expansion," and predicted that the U.S. government is likely to maintain a liquidity-provision stance to stimulate the economy. Hayes especially interpreted U.S. moves around Venezuela in terms of managing energy prices. He explained, "The prices U.S. voters are most sensitive to are groceries and energy, among which gasoline prices stand out," and said, "If you push for economic growth while failing to restrain rising oil prices, the political burden grows." He argued that attempts to secure Venezuelan crude are also a strategic choice to control energy inflation. He pointed to oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields as key signals of policy shifts. If oil prices rise alongside a sharp increase in 10-year U.S. Treasury yields and bond volatility widens, the political sphere could adjust monetary policy stances; but if oil prices show a stable trend, he judged that the expansionary stance is more likely to be maintained. Under such an environment, Bitcoin could act as a beneficiary asset of monetary expansion, he analyzed. Hayes said, "Bitcoin has a structure in which energy price fluctuations are reflected simultaneously across miners, making it a monetary asset where changes in energy prices do not directly constrain price formation," and assessed that "Bitcoin prices have structurally risen when dollar liquidity expands." He presented the correlation between increased dollar supply and Bitcoin prices as the basis for this view. Regarding investment strategy, he said that as of early 2026 he is maintaining a high weighting in high-risk virtual asset positions centered on Bitcoin. He explained that Bitcoin serves as the base asset while selectively investing in DeFi and privacy-related virtual assets. He added, however, that if signals of liquidity reduction appear, such as a sharp rise in oil prices, he could switch to a defensive stance. Hayes predicted, "Governments, knowing they would be disadvantaged in elections, do not stop supplying liquidity," and said, "As long as the U.S. fiscal and monetary policy stance is maintained, the favorable trend in the virtual asset market, including Bitcoin, is likely to continue."