<Lee Su-hyun's Coin Radar> is a column that reviews the flow of the virtual asset (cryptocurrency) market over the past week and explains the background. Beyond simply listing prices, it analyzes global economic issues and investor movements in a multi-dimensional way and provides insights to gauge the market's direction. Major Coins 1. Bitcoin (BTC) This week the Bitcoin market was characterized more by increased volatility than by directional movement. At one point the $90,000 level broke down and then sharply rebounded, producing a whipsaw market. Amid ongoing volatility, Bitcoin was trading around $87,000 on the 19th according to CoinMarketCap. Market participants assessed that multiple macro variables overlapped at once, increasing uncertainty. The first to have an impact was the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) rate decision. Even before the rate decision, the market treated a 0.25 percentage point hike as a given, raising concerns that the yen-funded liquidity that had been supplying global markets could change. In that atmosphere, risk assets in general were pressured, and Bitcoin was no exception. However, after today's BOJ rate decision Bitcoin actually rebounded from around $85,000 to about $87,000. The market seemed to interpret this as a resolution of uncertainty. The cautious stance of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) was also a burden. The Fed cut the policy rate by 0.25 percentage points last week but remained cautious about further cuts. With forecasts emerging that next year's rate cuts could be limited to a single instance, inflows into liquidity-sensitive virtual assets (cryptocurrencies) also paused. There were some positive signs. Immediately after the U.S. November Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, Bitcoin rebounded to around $89,000. Both CPI (2.7%) and core CPI (2.6%) came in below market expectations, confirming a slowdown in inflation, and combined with cooling employment indicators this revived hopes for rate cuts. On prediction platform Kalshi, the probability of a January rate cut also surged. These shifting expectations led to a short-term Bitcoin rebound, but subsequent price weakness confirmed that risks remain. First, concerns about the supply side persist. On the 18th (local time), CryptoQuant contributor Minole noted that buying liquidity is gradually decreasing and that funds are circulating within the market without new inflows. In such situations, imbalances in supply and demand are often resolved only through price adjustments, which is a source of pressure. Additionally, an MSCI issue was mentioned as a potential risk. MSCI is reportedly considering removing firms with high virtual asset exposure from its indices, and if exclusions occur, large-scale selling pressure could follow. The final decision is scheduled for January next year, but the market is already taking precautionary measures. On the price side, selling pressure near the top remains significant. Glassnode identified the $93,000–$120,000 range as a strong resistance zone, noting that substantial past buying volume is concentrated there, so rebounds may be hard to sustain. On the downside, buy demand is defending in the low $81,000 area, so the possibility of an immediate sharp collapse is limited, according to some analyses. CryptoQuant contributor Minole also analyzed that "a short-term rebound or prolonged sideways movement is possible, but it is likely to be a meaningless rebound with the potential for further declines afterward." In short, Bitcoin is currently in a phase where risks and expectations continue to clash rather than establishing a clear direction. 2. Ethereum (ETH) Ethereum also showed weak performance this week. After falling below the $3,000 level and at one point sliding to the $2,700 range, it posted a double-digit decline from the previous week. This is interpreted as a cooling in both supply-demand dynamics and investor sentiment rather than a simple price correction. First, U.S. demand noticeably weakened. Ethereum's Coinbase premium has not left negative territory since mid-December, signaling continued net selling pressure from U.S. investors. Concerns about whale movements have also increased. Addresses holding from 1,000 up to over 100,000 ETH have unrealized profits approaching zero recently, suggesting that if prices fall a bit more they could start selling. This raises concern that additional selling pressure could occur all at once. Spot ETF flows were also unfavorable. Throughout the week, spot Ethereum ETFs saw outflows, notably from BlackRock and Fidelity products. This is seen as a phase in which institutional demand is taking a breather. Of course, not all institutions have stepped back. Bitmain continued to add to its Ethereum holdings this week. According to Arkham data, Bitmain is estimated to have purchased at least $229.31 million worth of Ethereum this week. However, looking at the overall flow, the buying intensity of Ethereum treasuries has clearly decreased. Capriole Investments reports that daily purchases by Ethereum treasury firms dropped sharply from 78,010 ETH at the end of August to 12,095 ETH as of the 18th. In other words, it is close to a picture of "Bitmain buying alone." The outlook leans toward caution. BeinCrypto suggested that Ethereum could retest the $2,762 support, and if investor sentiment does not recover the weakness could continue. Recovering $3,000 is seen as the key condition for a short-term rebound; if surpassed, there is technical room for a rebound up to $3,131. A more conservative view comes from crypto analyst Dan Crypto Trays, who warned, "If the $2,800 support breaks, the next major support is around $2,100." 3. XRP (XRP) XRP also had a tough week. As of the 18th on CoinMarketCap it fell more than 12% week-on-week, surrendering the $2 level and currently trading around $1.8. The main reason for the decline was profit-taking by long-term holders. Early XRP investors have begun to liquidate substantial holdings. A representative case is a wallet created about seven years ago that accumulated XRP when the price was around $0.40 and realized roughly $721.5 million in profits near $2 on the 11th. The problem is that this is not a one-off issue. Glassnode data show that since early this fall profit-taking by long-term holders accelerated rapidly, and realized profit since September surged by about 240%. In the past, holders tended to sell after a clear bull market emerged, but now, with greater market volatility, they are prioritizing financial stability and liquidating earlier. This acts as a structural factor suppressing XRP rallies. In the derivatives market, leverage has also fallen sharply, weakening short-term rebound momentum. CryptoQuant data show that since mid-December the estimated XRP leverage ratio on Binance fell to about 0.18, one of the lowest levels in the recent period. Compared with leverage during periods when XRP traded above $3, this is a substantial reduction. While lower leverage reduces the risk of cascade liquidations, it also weakens speculative buying power that could push prices higher. However, there was a noteworthy medium- to long-term development. News emerged that "wrapped XRP" enabling XRP to be used on other blockchains will be issued on the Solana ecosystem for the first time. This is significant as the first case of XRP expanding beyond the Ripple ecosystem into external DeFi environments, but it appears it will take time before this is directly reflected in the price. In the short term, forecasts favor continued downward pressure. Cointelegraph presented a rather conservative scenario, noting similarities between the current chart and the fractal just before the 2018 bear market; having failed to hold the $2 support, it warned that XRP could plunge as low as $0.60 before stabilizing around $1. Coin analyst Mikibull Crypto emphasized, "On the monthly chart, the $1.70–$1.80 range must be defended." If this demand zone breaks, a capitulation phase could follow, leading to further declines. Issue Coins 1. Solana (SOL)n Solana also followed the market-wide weakness this week, recording a double-digit decline week-on-week on CoinMarketCap. As of the 19th it was trading around $120. A major factor in the larger drop was the breach of the psychological $130 support. When the support broke, short-term profit-taking emerged quickly, and that flow led to further declines. In addition, network transaction volume and active user counts fell together, increasing fundamental pressure. Solana's weekly transaction volume has declined since peaking in mid-July, dropping from a peak of 816 million transactions to around 527 million last week. In particular, the trading demand in the meme coin sector, which had a large share in the Solana ecosystem, cooled rapidly and affected performance. However, ecosystem news was not all negative. At last week's Solana annual conference "Breakpoint 2025" held in Abu Dhabi, several positive announcements followed. Coinbase said it would introduce a feature allowing immediate trading of Solana-based new tokens without a separate listing process, and traditional financial institutions such as Gulf Bank of Singapore and Bhutan's state-owned DK Bank also announced joining Solana. In particular, Solana Mobile's plan to expand the Android ecosystem drew market attention. Through collaboration with MediaTek, it announced plans to embed Solana network functions natively on Android devices, envisioning a foundation that could connect hundreds of millions of devices directly to the Solana ecosystem. In the short term, further adjustments are possible. Crypto asset media CoinGape said, "If it falls below $120, $110 and even $100 could open up." Investment media FXEmpire also noted that Solana had broken down through the $128 support that had held through several rebounds and that selling pressure remains dominant. The outlet pointed to about $121.50 as effectively the "last line of defense," and if that breaks a retest of $100 is possible. Ultimately, while recent ecosystem expansion news could be positive in the mid- to long-term, volatility is likely to persist for the time being. Lee Su-hyun, Bloomingbit reporter shlee@bloomingbit.io
December 19PiCK