AMA (Ask Me Anything) held on BitMEX Trollbox on the 17th "For trading success, 'sense' and 'principles' are important" "-20% is the forced stop-loss timing… losses beyond that are hard to recover" "Constantly suspect the market… it can collapse at any time" AOA, the best-known named trader in South Korea's virtual asset (cryptocurrency) trading scene, met with domestic traders on the 17th on the global virtual asset exchange BitMEX's Trollbox. AOA reportedly started virtual asset trading in 2017 and made more than KRW 380 billion in profits from futures trading. At the time, he proved his earnings on the leaderboard (a platform where BitMEX users' profit and loss records can be checked in real time) and rose as a legend among Korean retail traders. AOA, who previously did an interview with the BitMEX blog in June, updated his status this time through an AMA with traders. Below is the full AMA AOA conducted on the BitMEX Trollbox. ▷ How do you pay taxes? Compare when assets are KRW 1 billion and KRW 100 billion. I handle it through a tax accountant. There are too many things to worry about to do it all by myself. ▷ With BitMEX trading volume greatly reduced now, how are you allocating assets? How do you manage risk between BitMEX, Binance, and spot ratios, and how do you manage leverage relative to assets when taking positions? I take long-term positions on exchanges with low volume, and short-term positions on exchanges with high volume. Recently, leverage relative to total assets seems to not exceed 1x. Assets have grown so large that entering the market would incur too big losses. ▷ Do you pay much attention to the liquidation map (heatmap)? I don't treat it as especially important, but because I focus on volume, I think it aligns when I consider points where volume bursts. ▷ Lately overseas traders use liquidation trackers; do you use trading programs? I trade manually. ▷ Regarding risk management: in a past Q&A you said you isolate so that even if liquidated you only lose about 25%. If a trade doesn't go as planned and gets liquidated (25% stop-loss), what percent risk (stop-loss) do you typically take in a single trade? I usually set around 20% of the assets on that exchange as the forced stop-loss timing. If loss continues beyond that, it's hard to recover. ▷ Do you still trade mainly based on volume and charts? Yes, that's correct. ▷ Do you still use fractal trading? What proportion would you say? I use it occasionally but it's not my main method. It feels like about 5% of my overall trading. ▷ Which do you do more: averaging down or averaging up? I do averaging down far more than averaging up. ▷ How do you see the coin market from now until year-end? If you could predict whether major coins will be bullish, sideways, or bearish? I think the large-cycle bull market will continue, and I expect one- or two-month corrections intermittently. I think a year-long bear market might only come around 2027. ▷ Last Saturday (13th) you went short though longs seemed advantageous. Why did you short? With interest rate cut expectations many expected longs; did you think whales would kill the long? Do you focus on human psychology? What made you start the short play? I shorted because I thought it was a short no matter how I looked at it, and got caught averaging down. I can be wrong sometimes. ▷ Will Bitcoin reach KRW 1 billion? I can't say that quickly right now. I'll answer separately after the AMA. ▷ If you lost 70% of your seed and restart, what mindset should you have? If you think you'll recover big at once, you'll definitely lose more. You need the mindset to recover slowly, over a year. I've never eaten a coin that jumped 5x or 10x in a day. Such coins are not meant for you; don't be bitter. ▷ When you started trading, did you start with a desperate mindset of 'it's okay to lose, my life can't fall further,' or with a relaxed 'let's play it like a game' attitude? Are you more stress-resistant than others? Do you think your growth via compound trading relates to your personal traits? Neither. I started because it somewhat fit my aptitude and I thought I could steadily earn. I'm not particularly good at enduring stress; when I get hit I get flustered. But I think I'm a bit better at emotional control. By looking at ratios relative to seed rather than absolute amounts, that's how it naturally happened. ▷ Your personal view on Bitcoin's price movement over the next year? I think it will feel like a major uptrend with two-month corrections mixed in. ▷ When do you plan to take profit on your current position? If it drops around 1.5% I think I'll close even the 1x short and switch to full long. ▷ Is the most important thing in trading the size of seed money? The bigger the seed, the harder it becomes. Many envy those who have seed to average down, but I originally entered once and exited once. When the seed grew, I had no choice but to average. Entering and exiting once gave much better returns. If you want to follow this method, adjust by seed ratio. If you fix entry and averaging ratios the same percentage-wise, there's no reason to have a huge seed. ▷ You initially grew assets with high leverage; how did you overcome the temptation of leverage? I succumbed a few times, suffered big losses, and instinctively learned. High leverage should be used with money you can afford to lose. Even initially, though leverage looked high, relative to total assets it was only 2–3x at most. ▷ Strategies that worked in the past but no longer do, and strategies still effective? 2021 market vs current market feels very different — has your trading method changed? In the past, I could catch tails on sudden moves with my reaction speed, but now there are too many bots and it's hard to act at human reaction speed. However, candle and volume–based trading hasn't changed much. ▷ You bought a lot of spot; did you buy expecting a rise after today's FOMC? Ahead of rate decisions people are uneasy and money may not flow into risk assets. I could be wrong, but I had that expectation and the chart looked good so I bought. ▷ If you started again now, could you achieve similar results, if not as much? Even starting again with KRW 6 million, I think I could make about KRW 100 million in a year. ▷ Thanks. Within the 20% risk do you follow the 1%·2% rule for entries, or do you adjust flexibly? I adjust flexibly based on my psychology then. Some days my psyche is unstable and I can't bear even small losses; then I go tighter. ▷ Before swing trading, what risk-reward ratio and approximate ROE% (1x basis) do you aim for from your seed? I'm usually satisfied and take profit at around 5% of total seed. In fact, in trading I've never seen a daily return even close to 2x the total seed, nor 30%. My maximum daily profit was around 20%. ▷ How do you review trades after position closure? I review mostly when I missed bigger profits or the direction was completely wrong. I calmly analyze whether the choice was right but the result was wrong, or the choice itself was wrong. ▷ Someone said the Binance nickname 'illit' is you; is that true? That person trades well. But I trade better. ▷ Which timeframes do you check more: daily, 4-hour, 1-hour? I consider 1min, 5min, 15min, 1h, 4h, and daily all important. I usually have the 1min chart on. ▷ Any routine or habit you always do before looking at charts each morning? No particular routine. I just turn on the charts as soon as I wake up; that's my closest thing to a habit. ▷ When you take 2x on BitMEX relative to total assets, BitMEX 2x = 3x on Tether futures basis, and BitMEX 2x short = 1x short on Tether basis. If total assets are $1,000,000, when you go long do you take a $1,000,000 position and when short take a $3,000,000 position, or do you bet equally with a $2,000,000 position? On BitMEX I trade with 1x short as the no-position reference point. ▷ "Is trading a battle of sense or principles?" What do you think? You need sense to make money and principles to survive. I think both are necessary. ▷ Many posts emphasize risk management as the main purpose; what's the fundamental reason you stress risk management? Anyone can experience temporary profits. But without risk management, I believe you'll eventually converge to zero. ▷ Do technical indicators like RSI or MACD have meaning in trading? They can be referenced, but you shouldn't be obsessed with them alone. I've been paying meaningful attention to them since 2018. ▷ You expect a 25bp rate cut after today's FOMC; how will you respond? If volatility occurs at rate announcement time, I'll attach longs on dips (buy-the-dip longs). ▷ Do you have target amounts? I've set targets like KRW 100 million, 300 million, 1 billion and kept achieving them. These days I feel like I'll do this for life rather than stopping after hitting a certain amount. ▷ What do you mean by 'suspecting the market'? Does it mean quickly responding when scenarios don't play out, or continuously watching because situations can change? Suspecting the market means trading on the premise that any plan you set can be ruined or collapse at any time. ▷ What do you think about virtual person theories or deep state connections sometimes mentioned? Anything you'd say to them? Deep state theories seem like jokes, and virtual person theories have decreased. There are so many scammers in the coin world that if you don't know well, thinking it's a virtual person might reduce being scammed. ▷ Long-term, do you think Bitcoin's halving four-year cycle will continue the same? Will the 2-year up/2-year down cycle break? Could institutional inflows change it? I don't believe prices rise at halving or follow specific cycles. Rules are always meant to be broken. ▷ Have you used BitMEX continuously from when you first started trading until now? I started crypto in December 2017, and BitMEX since March 2018. About 70% of my total profits seems to have come from BitMEX. ▷ What is an appropriate initial futures seed? I'm in my 30s. For a regular person, I recommend about KRW 300,000 as an initial futures seed. If you lose it all you'll feel the pain, and it's a good starting point to test early skills. ▷ How many hours a day do you look at charts? I used to look for 10 hours daily, but these days I watch 7–8 hours only on important days and live my real life the rest. ▷ How many BMEX tokens do you hold, for what purpose, and what's your outlook? I hold 2,000,000 tokens, and because holding a lot reduces trading fees I keep them. I don't know if they will go up or down. ▷ Do you have a girlfriend now? I have a girlfriend. She's very pretty. ▷ With so much asset, it's probably hard to spend everything; why haven't you graduated (retired)? Even if I stopped now I wouldn't be able to spend it all in my lifetime, but I do it as a form of self-actualization. I'm curious how far I can go. ▷ What do you do in your free time outside trading? Outside trading, I meet friends, meet my girlfriend, or play Steam games. ▷ Being a large asset holder, trading can impact the market. Do you take precautions, like choosing exchanges? If you enter when volume is low, the market can't absorb you and you'll inevitably incur big losses at your average price. So I've reduced entry frequency compared to before. ▷ How many monitors do you use when trading? Always just one. ▷ There was a story about a friend who turned KRW 50,000 into KRW 100 million; what trading method did you teach? I didn't teach a specific trading method; he did well on his own and I just told the story because it was surprising. One acquaintance supposedly turned KRW 5,000 (not KRW 50,000) into KRW 100 million; many said it was fake, so I will stake all my assets and say it's a true story. ▷ When Tether value fluctuates with the exchange rate and 1x hedge short isn't possible, do you watch exchange rates as your assets grow? How do you respond? As assets grew, I couldn't help but care about exchange rates. When Tether looks very expensive I force myself to cash out a bit. ▷ As a beginner, what tips and precautions should be noted before trading? Never lose big. If you lose big once, it takes 3–4 times the effort to recover. ▷ Favorite idol at the moment? Seolyun. ▷ I'm a little over 1 year into crypto, doing entry trading and rotation, and grew seed into hundreds of millions of won. Exchange seed is under $200,000. I'm anxious that Bitcoin will get harder and volatility will decrease. Advice? If you keep your wits, you can survive market changes with appropriate response strategies. I've worried about this since 2018, but even as market meta changes, if you don't stubbornly stick to old methods you can keep making profits. ▷ You mentioned BitMEX monthly futures in 2018–2019. Besides expiry spreads and funding fees, you said other advantages exist; is that still hard to share? When observing, do you take 1x short and watch, or keep assets on BitMEX at levels that won't be greatly affected so you can sit no-position? Also, given significant price rise now, which is more attractive: Tether or USD trading? If I want to observe I usually put on about a 0.5x short. If something feels off I go about 1x short. ▷ What were the representative entry reasons for recent trades? What do you focus on these days? Lately I set my own boxes and repeatedly buy when it seems cheap and sell when it seems expensive. ▷ For initial futures with KRW 300,000, what leverage and should I only trade Bitcoin? Yes, if doing futures, I recommend only Bitcoin at first. With KRW 300,000 I think leverage up to 20x is acceptable. But the higher the leverage, the shorter you should hold positions. ▷ For long-term survival in the market, how did you determine your 'maximum allowable loss'? What safeguards do you have to avoid exceeding it? When deciding position size, do you consider not only fixed ratios but volatility, market conditions, and possible consecutive losses? And do you have scenarios for black swan events? When seed was small, max allowable loss was about -20% per trade; nowadays about -10%. To prevent exceeding that, I made the additional deposit process very inconvenient for myself. When you get hit you tend to want to add funds and average down, which is a path to ruin, so I blocked that route. I don't trade by fixed ratios; the more volatile, the smaller the position considering expected loss. I haven't set a detailed calculation process; if it feels like moving by feel I'll adjust position sizes. There's always risk of big loss from unexpected events, so I avoid going beyond certain regular leverage levels as basic risk management. ▷ Is the market 'movement of money' or 'human nature'? I think it's closer to human nature. ▷ Until last year you liked Wonyoung, Seolyun, Rei, Hani; now you seem to be an Ailyt fan. Who is your favorite member? I like the Ailyt group's concept itself. I don't have a favorite member yet. ▷ Where do you mainly store assets? 20% in banks, 60% on spot exchanges, 20% on futures exchanges. ▷ In the coin market, which is advantageous: program trading or manual trading? Have you tested? A hybrid of program and manual trading seems best. I don't know how to make programs yet, so I trade manually. ▷ How much do I need to earn to meet Wonyotti once? KRW 100 billion? Come meet me when you earn about KRW 10 trillion. ▷ Do you listen to music or watch YouTube while trading, or nothing? I trade with 'Oseon's US stock live' on. I like the voice. ▷ Has trading volume reliability weakened compared to before? Yes, it's reduced compared to before, but I still consider it quite important. ▷ When BTC went to $49,000 last August, how did you trade and what did you think then? I had a long and was merry with friends, but when the crash came I couldn't focus on having fun and was shaking. ▷ With your position, you'd seem to know many exclusive infos; do you often profit from such info? I'm not very social so I don't know more information than others. I actually feel people who trade for a living know much more than I do. I've never profited from specific information. ▷ For beginners, is avoiding big losses enough regardless of major or alt coins? I recommend focusing on major coins. Starting with small altcoins creates bad habits. ▷ Is trading to replace salary more talent or effort? Both talent and effort matter, but I think talent is bigger. Still, without effort in risk management, talent will end in liquidation. ▷ Many people ask you questions; do you think these questions help actual trading? If people precisely grasp and reference what I said in this AMA and past Q&As, it can help. But most tend to add subjective interpretation or chase altcoin high-leverage dopamine, which is regretful. ▷ BitMEX's domestic user departure was right after the corona beam, but volume is slowly increasing recently. Trollbox has many memories; what should BitMEX improve to secure more Korean users? If they want to attract more users, improving the UI to be visually pleasant is important. Personally I like BitMEX's quanto method and big system, but the UI has many inconveniences. Especially on mobile the displayed price and actual price differ, which is annoying. I always can't trust mobile price and have to open a separate chart to trade; it's unbearably inconvenient. ▷ Have you ever met the BitMEX Number One trader in person? I haven't met any famous trader in person. ▷ What do you think of ICT theory? And what about people running YouTube memberships? I don't know ICT theory in detail. Paid memberships that quickly spread news might be fine, but if it's about leading trades I think it's best not to join. ▷ From the perspective of large players, do you think about whether to kill shorts or longs? I don't consider what large players might think; it's meaningless to me. ▷ When you suffer big losses or get stuck and your mental is shaken, do you have routines or recovery methods? I don't deny reality; I immediately recalculate assets and face the loss. After my mentality recovers, I trade slowly. ▷ Many traders and masters exist, but you show outstanding results. Compared to others, what do you think you did well? Many traders turned millions into hundreds of millions suddenly but slid in risk management and went to zero and restarted. I think the difference is risk management. ▷ When seed was small you traded intensely; now do you manage physical and mental health while trading? Yes, these days I try to maintain work-life balance while trading. ▷ You seem more cooperative on BitMEX than elsewhere in interviews. Any reason? I can't pinpoint exactly why I'm cooperative. Maybe because I earned the most here and have memories of playing on Trollbox. This article is written for information purposes and is not a solicitation or advice for specific virtual asset investments. All investment decisions and responsibilities lie with the investor.
September 18PiCK