Minseung Kang

With the conflict with Iran entering its fourth day, President Trump underscored the United States’ ability to wage a prolonged war. On the 3rd, overseas business breaking-news channel Walter Bloomberg reported via X (formerly Twitter) that “in a social media post that day, President Trump said the U.S. holds weapons stockpiles that are effectively near-unlimited, and stated it can conduct war ‘forever.’” Trump claimed the U.S. is “ready to win big,” describing the joint operation with Israel as “major combat.” He also noted the operation could last about 4–5 weeks, while adding that progress so far is “ahead of schedule.” The outlet said that “as the conflict escalates, the United States has signaled it is prepared to pursue a prolonged war if necessary.”

Reports have emerged that Mojtaba Khamenei—son of Iran’s supreme leader, the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and long cited as a leading contender to succeed him—is alive. According to a post on X (formerly Twitter) by Walter Bloomberg on the 3rd, Iran’s semi-official Mehr News Agency confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei survived U.S.-Israeli airstrikes. Speculation that he had been killed spread after multiple family members died in the strikes, but Mehr reported that he is alive.

U.S. President Donald Trump took a hard line on America’s military capabilities. On the 3rd, Trump said on his Truth Social account, "We have an almost unlimited supply of mid- to high-tier weapons. They are powerful 'weapons.'"

U.S. President Donald Trump claimed that Iran’s military capabilities have effectively been neutralized, and that while Tehran wants negotiations, it is already too late. On the 3rd, Trump said on Truth Social, "Their air defenses, air force, navy, and leadership are gone. They want to talk. I said, 'It’s too late.'"

SoFi and Mastercard will introduce the U.S. dollar-backed stablecoin 'SoFiUSD' as a settlement instrument on a global payments network. According to crypto industry outlet The Block on the 3rd, SoFi is moving to settle card transactions in SoFiUSD on the Mastercard network. This is expected to support faster settlement for cross-border remittances and business-to-business payments. SoFiUSD is a dollar-pegged stablecoin issued by SoFi Bank, which is regulated by the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC). It is backed 1:1 by cash reserves and issued on the Ethereum network. The two companies also plan to explore expanding interoperability among stablecoins, fiat currencies and tokenized assets going forward.

Coinbase will suspend trading in some perpetual futures contracts. According to BlockBeats, a virtual-asset (cryptocurrency) news outlet, Coinbase said in an official notice that it will temporarily halt trading in a total of 25 perpetual futures contracts on Coinbase Advanced and Coinbase International Exchange around 22:00 on the 16th (Korea time). The products to be suspended are perpetual futures linked to MET, REZ, BABY, SUPER, SUSHI, GMX, ERA, XAN, VINE, T, YB, WCT, HOME, NOT, MINA, CATI, DOGS, COW, GRT, DRIFT, COOKIE, ARKM, B3, SXT and BB. Coinbase did not separately disclose the specific reason for the move.

The European Central Bank (ECB) warned that the growing use of stablecoins could lead to declines in bank deposits and a contraction in corporate lending, potentially weakening the effectiveness of interest-rate policy. According to Cointelegraph, a media outlet specializing in virtual assets (cryptocurrencies), the ECB said in a staff report released on the 3rd that “if stablecoin adoption expands, households and companies may increasingly hold digital assets instead of bank deposits.” The report noted that “rising interest in stablecoins is linked to a decline in retail bank deposits and a reduction in corporate lending,” adding that “banks could reduce the amount of credit they supply to the real economy.” Banks rely heavily on stable, low-cost deposits as a funding source for household and corporate loans. If deposits decline, banks become more dependent on wholesale funding or market-based financing, which is generally more expensive and more volatile. The ECB said such shifts could weaken the transmission of central-bank interest-rate policy. Even if rates are adjusted, the impact may not be sufficiently passed through to bank lending and the real economy. However, it said the magnitude of the impact may vary depending on the scale and structure of stablecoin adoption and the regulatory approach, and could display “non-linear” characteristics whereby the effect rises sharply once adoption exceeds a certain threshold. The report also raised concerns about the spread of foreign-currency-denominated stablecoins. If dollar-based or other non-euro tokens come to dominate the market, the influence of euro zone interest-rate policy on bank lending could weaken further. According to the outlet, dollar-pegged stablecoins account for about 97% of the total stablecoin market capitalization, with the market size at roughly $301 billion. The ECB projected that the stablecoin market has more than doubled over the past three years and could reach $2 trillion by 2028. The ECB said it would “continue to monitor the impact of the spread of stablecoins on financial stability and the role of the euro.”

International precious-metal prices are extending their intraday declines. According to BlockBeats, a crypto-focused media outlet, spot gold fell below $5,090 per ounce, with its intraday loss widening to as much as 4.36%. Spot silver plunged 12.00%, slipping below $79 per ounce. The market sees recent broad-based price corrections across the commodities complex, along with shifts in safe-haven sentiment, as having weighed on silver prices.

International precious metal prices plunged during the session. According to BlockBeats, a media outlet specializing in digital assets, spot silver fell 10% intraday on the day, sliding to as low as $80.28 per ounce. Spot gold also tumbled by nearly $100 in the short term, falling below the $5,170-per-ounce level. The intraday decline was tallied at 2.94%. Spot palladium also dropped 6.00% to $1,668.23 per ounce. Market participants say shifting risk sentiment, alongside a broader pullback across commodity markets, likely weighed on silver prices.

JPMorgan said it is clearly willing to step up its participation in the stablecoin market, while stressing that the same regulations that apply to banks should also apply. According to Cryptopolitan, a digital-asset (cryptocurrency) news outlet, on the 3rd Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, emphasized that stablecoin interest-earning structures are effectively similar to interest on bank deposits and therefore should fall under the same regulatory framework. Dimon said, “If a product is the same as a bank service, it should be subject to the same rules,” noting that if crypto firms hold customer funds and provide rewards that function like interest, they are no different from banks. He added, however, that some exceptions could be possible for reward structures limited to specific remittance activities. He argued that it is unfair to apply looser regulation to non-bank operators when banks are required to comply with strict capital, security and supervisory rules. The outlet reported that “this debate is also emerging as a key issue as the U.S. Congress reviews new digital-asset-related legislation.”

A majority of altcoins (cryptoassets other than Bitcoin) are trading below the 200-day moving average—a key long-term support level—raising the possibility that the cryptoasset (cryptocurrency) market may have entered a local-bottom zone. According to Cryptopolitan, a cryptoasset (cryptocurrency) news outlet, about 95% of altcoins listed on Binance are currently trading below their 200-day moving averages. The indicator is viewed as a signal that has repeatedly appeared near bear-market bottoms in the past. The outlet added that 95–98% of the overall altcoin market is now sitting below long-term trend lines. Historically, such phases have coincided with Bitcoin (BTC) bottoming and were followed by subsequent rebounds. Altcoins are also being pressured by investor fatigue, low leverage and constrained returns. More than 37% of all altcoins are trading near all-time lows, with some assessments suggesting conditions are even more severe than during the FTX collapse. Meanwhile, the Altcoin Season Index has inched up to 37 from 35, but the market is still classified as a phase dominated by Bitcoin. Bitcoin has been oscillating above the $67,000 level, but has failed to hold after touching $70,000.

Global crypto exchange Binance will delist several spot trading pairs. According to a Binance notice on the 3rd, the exchange will halt trading in four spot pairs—CHZ/BNB, ENA/BRL, NEIRO/JPY, and RLC/BTC—starting at 12:00 on the 6th (KST). Binance said it regularly reviews spot trading pairs by factoring in multiple considerations such as insufficient liquidity and low trading volume, and delists certain pairs based on the results. The move is limited to the trading pairs and does not mean Binance’s spot trading support for the underlying tokens will be terminated. Users can continue trading the assets via other supported pairs. In addition, the spot trading bot services applied to the affected pairs will be discontinued at the same time.

'Did Netanyahu drag the U.S. into a war?' Fallout The United States’ decision to launch a surprise attack on Iran on the 28th of last month appears to have been driven by the fact that Israel had moved first to strike Iran. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met reporters after briefing lawmakers on the Iran operation at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., on the 2nd (local time), explaining the rationale for the strike by saying, "We were aware of Israel’s military action." He added, "That would trigger attacks on U.S. forces, and if we did not act preemptively before they began their assault, it was a situation in which there would have been more casualties." U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson also cited as context for the airstrikes that "Israel decided to act to defend itself regardless of whether the United States would support it." The U.S. had been monitoring the timing of a strike on Iran since January, but Israel’s decision is said to have been the primary factor behind the surprise attack on Iran on the 28th of last month. As this can be interpreted as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu effectively drawing the United States into a war with Iran, the fallout is expected to be significant. Earlier, U.S. President Donald Trump said in a video posted after the airstrikes that Iran had been "trying to rebuild its nuclear program and continue developing long-range missiles" as the rationale for the attack. He claimed, "These missiles could threaten our cherished friends and allies in Europe and U.S. forces stationed overseas, and could soon reach the U.S. homeland." He added, "Imagine how much bolder this regime would become if it possesses nuclear weapons and is actually able to use them to send its message." Washington=Lee Sang-eun, Correspondent selee@hankyung.com

Israel’s prime minister said the war with Iran is unlikely to become protracted. According to BlockBeats, a media outlet specializing in virtual assets (cryptocurrencies), Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on the 3rd (local time) that he "expects the war with Iran will not last for years." As the conflict has recently escalated, Israel struck Hezbollah targets in Lebanon backed by Iran, and Iran was reported to have hit a Gulf-region country where a U.S. military base is located. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump initially expected the war to last about 4–5 weeks, but later suggested broader and open-ended military action against Iran.

Sentient, a decentralized open-source AI research lab, said on the 3rd that it has launched 'Arena,' an infrastructure platform designed to rigorously verify the reliability of enterprise AI agents, in collaboration with Founders Fund led by Peter Thiel and Franklin Templeton, which manages more than about $1.5 trillion (roughly KRW 2,000 trillion) in assets. The launch of 'Arena' is seen as a move to address the 'trust gap' that has been raised in corporate settings. A recent survey found that 85% of companies worldwide want to adopt 'AI agents' that can carry out tasks on their own, but fewer than 25% have governance frameworks in place to control malfunctions. The takeaway is that while appetite for adoption is high, control and accountability structures are not keeping pace. 'Arena' is not merely a technology contest; it aims to serve as a standard testbed for validating whether AI agents are ready for real-world deployment. Rather than judging only whether an answer is correct, it comprehensively logs the inference process—how the AI arrived at its conclusion through a given logical structure. This is expected to function as an 'AI black box' that can help trace causes if financial incidents or legal disputes arise in the future. Julian Love, head of digital assets at Franklin Templeton, said, "The important question for companies now is not how powerful AI is, but whether it can be trusted in real operational settings," adding that "a sophisticated environment like Arena will play a decisive role in distinguishing promising ideas from technology that is ready for deployment." Himanshu Tyagi, a co-founder of Sentient, stressed, "AI agents are no longer toys in a lab; they are core infrastructure directly tied to customer assets and operating performance," adding, "In business environments where the cost of failure is enormous, repeatable trust takes priority over flashy demos, and Arena will become that recognized certification standard." Arena’s first validation task is 'unstructured document reasoning.' The goal is to minimize errors in deriving logical conclusions from analyses of complex investment proposals or contracts. Global infrastructure companies such as OpenRouter and Fireworks are also participating in the project, helping establish a neutral standard that excludes model makers’ self-serving evaluations. Meanwhile, Arena is being rolled out globally, and recruitment has also begun for AI developers to join the first cohort. Applications are expected to reach the thousands. Offline events are also set to be held from this month, centered on San Francisco. Event registration will be available via the official link starting on the 5th.

U.S. Treasury yields extended their advance during Asian trading hours, underscoring how inflation concerns stemming from conflict in the Middle East are weighing on markets. According to crypto-focused outlet Odaily on the 3rd, U.S. Treasury yields edged higher after surging the previous day. Markets are focused on the risk that a wider Middle East conflict could push up global oil prices and intensify inflationary pressures. In the previous session, the U.S. Treasury market briefly saw buying on safe-haven demand, but the move reversed as yields jumped again. Padhraic Garvey and Michiel Tukker, rates strategists at ING in the Netherlands, wrote in a report that “it is honestly surprising that the safe-haven flows into bonds ended so quickly.” They added that “if the situation in the Middle East deteriorates further, demand for safe havens could flare up again,” while noting that “a sizeable follow-through reaction after the initial shock has already been seen.”

Grayscale said it may be time to consider increasing allocations to digital assets from a long-term perspective despite the recent market correction. According to crypto-focused media outlet BeInCrypto on the 3rd, Grayscale said in its latest market report that the price declines seen so far this year could present an opportunity for long-term investors. Grayscale cited three factors underpinning the long-term investment case. First is the complementary relationship between artificial intelligence (AI) and blockchain. The report said “blockchain is highly likely to become the financial rails for AI agents,” adding that it has advantages in efficiency and automation compared with traditional finance. It also noted that the AI-related crypto sector showed relatively resilient performance last month. Second is the trend toward stablecoins and tokenization. Grayscale said that regulatory clarity—such as last year’s enactment of the “GENIUS Act”—is helping drive institutional inflows. It added that moves by major companies including Meta, Stripe and BlackRock also point to the potential for expansion in the stablecoin and tokenization markets. Third is the US macro environment. The report said “the US economy is maintaining broadly solid momentum, and despite some uncertainty, conditions favorable to risk assets are in place.” However, it flagged the possibility of excessive AI investment as a medium-term risk. Grayscale added that “despite recent volatility, trading volume and volatility indicators are gradually stabilizing,” noting that “short-term volatility may persist, but the long-term growth narrative remains intact.”

Coinbase has unveiled a new solution designed to streamline token issuance and operations. Coinbase said on the 3rd via X (formerly Twitter) that it has launched “Coinbase Token Manager.” The service is a tool aimed at helping project teams manage token-operations tasks more efficiently. According to Coinbase, Token Manager offers automated vesting and lockup features. It also enables large-scale token distributions with a single click, and supports workflows for tax withholding and related documentation. Coinbase explained that its goal is “to simplify token operations so teams can devote more time to development and building services.”

An assessment has emerged that the altcoin market has entered its deepest retracement phase of this cycle. Crypto analyst Darkfost said on the 3rd via X (formerly Twitter) that “38% of altcoins are currently trading near their all-time lows (ATL),” adding that “this is worse than right after the FTX collapse.” He explained that “overall market conditions are not favorable for risk-asset investing, and altcoins are the segment hit first by the fallout,” noting that “market liquidity remains fragile, and funds are currently shifting to more volatile equity or commodities markets.” Darkfost said the indicator shows the largest degree of retracement altcoins have experienced in this cycle. “In April last year, the ratio was 35%, and it rose to 37.8% immediately after the FTX collapse,” he said, adding that “the current figure has surpassed that.” He added, “The chart clearly shows the current state of the altcoin market,” and said “investors remain cautious and are reducing their interest in altcoins.” However, he also mentioned the possibility of a rebound, saying, “It is also when conditions deteriorate sharply that opportunities begin to emerge.”

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is testing how blockchain technology could be used for central-bank reserve settlements. According to The Block, a digital-asset (cryptocurrency) news outlet, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said in a speech at the “FIN/SUM” conference in Tokyo on the 3rd, “We plan to run experiments to see whether central-bank money can operate on blockchain-based systems.” Ueda explained that the BOJ is pursuing a sandbox project focused on BOJ current accounts—reserves that financial institutions deposit at the central bank. The move reflects a view that tokenization, programmability and blockchain settlement architectures could potentially reshape future payment and settlement systems and securities markets. He said, “While exploring ways to connect with existing systems, we will examine use cases such as interbank domestic settlements and securities settlement,” adding, “We will make further progress with support from external experts.” The experiment also aligns with “Project Agora,” led by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). The initiative involves multiple central banks and studies cross-border wholesale settlement models using tokenized central-bank money. Japan is among the participating countries. Ueda said, “If the project becomes reality, it could bring innovation in simplifying cross-border payments and settlement.” Separately, the BOJ is continuing a pilot program to assess the potential introduction of a retail central bank digital currency (CBDC). Through a CBDC forum run with the private sector, it is reviewing technical and operational issues, and plans to broaden the scope of discussions beyond technical design to the future of payments and settlement overall. It did not present a specific timeline. The Japanese government has also recently accelerated efforts to refine the regulatory framework for digital assets. The finance minister has cited the need to integrate traditional financial markets with digital assets, and the Financial Services Agency has finalized a plan to reclassify major digital assets—including Bitcoin and Ethereum—under the existing regulatory framework for financial products.