Minseung Kang

A key indicator showing institutional flows into Bitcoin (BTC) has turned positive again. As a phase in which institutional buying exceeds mining supply has reoccurred, expectations for a mid-term price rebound have also been raised. On the 6th, crypto media Cointelegraph reported that "the 'Net Institutional Buying' indicator of asset manager Capriole Investments recorded eight consecutive green signals this year." The indicator turned positive after Bitcoin's price surpassed the $88,000 level. This means that the daily purchases by institutional investors, including corporate treasuries and U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), exceeded the newly supplied Bitcoin quantity from mining. After a slowdown in demand and increased volatility earlier this year, institutional demand appears to have entered a recovery phase. Recently, institutions have net bought about 76% more Bitcoin compared to mining supply. Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, said, "Institutions have once again become net buyers of Bitcoin," adding, "Looking at historical data, after this indicator turns positive Bitcoin's price has shown a meaningful upward trend." In fact, the indicator has acted as a bullish signal several times since 2020. After phases in which institutional buying exceeded mining supply, Bitcoin's price rose by an average of 109%, and the previous instance also showed an increase of about 41%. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's price recovered to the $94,000 level after the U.S. stock market opened earlier this week, reaching the highest level since mid-November last year. The market is paying attention to whether the flow will continue after a short-term rebound alongside the recovery in institutional demand.

Structural improvements underway for market institutionalization High volatility amid transitional flows Strong rally if the CLARITY Act passes Ethereum and Solana could hit record highs As discussions to overhaul cryptocurrency regulation progress, centered on the United States, expectations for the altcoin market this year are also growing. The market has raised the possibility of a recovery centered on 'blue-chip' altcoins such as Ethereum and Solana, while voices warning about volatility have also emerged. On the 6th, the industry said that global cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase analyzed in its annual report, "This year's altcoin market is in a transitional expansion flow where institutionalization and structural reorganization are progressing, rather than a sharp rally or collapse," and "Because the range of uncertainty is wide, the possibility of increased volatility remains open." In particular, it is forecast that Ethereum and Solana's growth will continue. The report evaluated, "Ethereum established itself last year as a payment and settlement infrastructure centered on institutions, and Solana also expanded its buyer base with the spread of Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) companies, the launch of U.S. spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and the introduction of tokenized stocks." Global asset manager Bitwise also analyzed, "This year, stablecoins and tokenization are an irresistible mega-trend, and Ethereum and Solana are likely to be the biggest beneficiaries." According to domestic cryptocurrency exchange Upbit, the price of Ethereum has been on a weak trend since falling below the 5 million won level in November last year and is trading in the 4.4 million won range. Solana is hovering around 185,000 won. Improvements in the regulatory environment are also identified as a key variable that will shape market trends this year. The CLARITY Act, which deals with the regulatory framework for the cryptocurrency industry as a whole, is scheduled to begin full discussions starting with the U.S. Senate Banking Committee on the 15th. If the bill reaches agreement, it is also suggested that it could proceed to a vote in the first half of the year. Earlier, SEC commissioner Paul Atkins also said that work on cryptocurrency-related regulatory arrangements will accelerate this year. Bitwise predicted, "If the CLARITY Act to establish the cryptocurrency market structure passes, it would act as a powerful catalyst for a rise, and Ethereum and Solana are highly likely to set new all-time highs." Jack Fandl, head of Grayscale Research, also said, "The operating environment for virtual asset companies in the U.S. improved considerably last year," and "If clear regulations are established, the scope and growth potential of the cryptocurrency industry will further expand." The investment industry also forecasts a gradual recovery of the decentralized finance (DeFi) market. Global asset manager 21Shares projected, "DeFi total value locked (TVL) could expand to about $300 billion within the year, roughly double the current level." RAAC founder Kevin Rusher said, "Both institutional and retail investors are seeking profit opportunities in the decentralized finance ecosystem," and "as a result, Ethereum and major altcoins are likely to regain attention." The market also mentions the possibility of increased volatility for the time being. Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen diagnosed, "Some altcoins may set new all-time highs this year, but the likelihood of a large-scale rotation unfolding across the market is not high," and "since a correction phase could continue for a while, managing uncertainty is important." Kang Min-seung, BloomingBit reporter minriver@bloomingbit.io

Grayscale's Ethereum (ETH) Staking exchange-traded fund (ETF) listed in the United States has begun directly distributing staking rewards to investors. On the 5th, according to GlobeNewswire, Grayscale said its Ethereum staking ETF (ETHE) had finalized a decision to sell staking rewards earned from October 6 through December 31 of last year and distribute them to existing shareholders. As a result, ETHE became the first U.S. spot Ethereum ETF to pass staking rewards on to investors. With this distribution, ETHE shareholders will receive $0.083178 per share held. The record date is January 5, and the payment date is the 6th. ETHE went ex-dividend at the start of trading that day. ETHE is an ETF structured to directly hold Ethereum. However, its regulatory framework differs from that of standard ETFs subject to the Investment Company Act of 1940, and it was also noted that investment risks, including the possibility of principal loss, exist and that this is not a direct investment in Ethereum. Peter Mintzberg, Grayscale's chief executive officer (CEO), called it "the first case in the United States of an Ethereum ETF delivering staking rewards to investors" and said it was "a turning point that brought a new revenue structure for digital assets into regulated ETFs." He added that "it is meaningful in that it connects blockchain-native revenues like staking to actual investment performance." Meanwhile, Grayscale was the first asset manager to apply staking to Ethereum products in October last year and operates the Ethereum Staking Mini ETF (ETH) alongside ETHE. The two products changed their names in January 2026 to reflect staking functionality.

Bitmain, which is pursuing an Ethereum (ETH) accumulation strategy, appears to have continued accumulating Ethereum last week. According to PR Newswire on the 5th, Bitmain purchased an additional 32,977 Ethereum last week. The company said it continued purchases despite trading activity slowing across global equities and crypto markets in the final week of the year. With this purchase, Bitmain's Ethereum holdings increased to a total of 4,143,502. This represents about 3.43% of the total Ethereum supply. Bitmain is gradually pursuing the 'Alchemy of 5' strategy, which aims to secure 5% of Ethereum supply. The market is also paying attention to Bitmain's accumulation method. The company explained the purchase was a net buy based on new capital inflows rather than a conversion of existing holdings. Asset management strategies are also being pursued. Bitmain is currently staking 659,219 Ethereum, which is an increase of more than 250,000 over the week. The company plans to commercialize its US-based validator infrastructure, the 'Made in America Validator Network (MAVAN),' in early 2026 to begin monetizing its Ethereum holdings. Tom Lee, Bitmain chairman, said, "Changes in US crypto policy, Wall Street's acceptance of stablecoins and tokenization of real-world assets, and increased demand for authentication driven by the spread of artificial intelligence (AI) will create a favorable structure for Ethereum in 2026." He added, "The upward trend in commodities and precious metals prices in 2025 has historically positively affected crypto asset prices thereafter," and "such macro conditions will support Ethereum's medium- to long-term value in 2026."

Strategy (Strategy·formerly MicroStrategy) has further increased its bitcoin (BTC) holdings. On the 5th, Michael Saylor, chairman of Strategy, said on X (formerly Twitter), "Strategy purchased an additional 1,287 bitcoin (last week)." Accordingly, Strategy's total bitcoin holdings increased to 673,783 BTC. In addition, the company's dollar liquidity expanded. Saylor added, "Strategy's dollar reserve (USD Reserve) increased by $62,000,000 to a total of $2,250,000,000."

Bitcoin (BTC) prices are showing a rebound, but analysts say the Coinbase Premium Index, which gauges U.S. investor demand, still requires cautious interpretation. According to cryptocurrency-focused outlet U.Today on the 5th, Bitcoin prices rose more than 1.6% over the past 24 hours, but the Coinbase Premium Index remains in negative territory. The index measures the price difference of Bitcoin between Coinbase and major global exchanges; when negative, it is interpreted as relatively weak buying demand in the U.S. market or dominant selling pressure. The Coinbase Premium Index currently stands at -0.196%, showing some recovery from the deeper negative readings recorded recently. However, it remains in negative territory, making it difficult to say Bitcoin has fully exited the risk zone. The market interprets the improvement in the index as a neutral or limited bullish signal. Because a shift of the Coinbase Premium into positive territory would be needed to confirm strong, institution-driven buying demand, the current movement is seen as more of an exploratory phase than a full trend reversal. Peter Schiff, known as a proponent of gold investment, advised that the recent Bitcoin rebound is temporary and urged investors to focus on precious metals instead of cryptocurrencies. In contrast, Michael Saylor, Strategy chairman, indicated he may make additional Bitcoin purchases this year and maintains a long-term bullish outlook. The outlet said, "The Coinbase Premium Index shows that selling pressure is easing, but it is still too early to judge that Bitcoin has fully entered a safe zone," adding that "whether U.S. investors actively switch to buying will be the key variable that determines future movement."

In the Bitcoin (BTC) options market, positions betting on a price rise heading into early 2026 have been expanding rapidly. In particular, open interest is concentrated in $100,000 strike call options, strengthening expectations of a breakout to the upside. On the 5th, crypto asset (cryptocurrency) specialist media CoinDesk reported that demand for the Bitcoin $100,000 call option expiring in January 2026 on Deribit, the world's largest crypto options exchange, has increased noticeably. Over the past 24 hours, the open interest in that call option increased by 420BTC, and it currently records the highest open interest among January expiries. Market analysts also say that if the spot price consistently exceeds the $94,000 level, the options market's bias toward the upside could intensify. Some trading desks noted that Deribit's perpetual futures funding rate recently exceeded 30%, diagnosing that hedging demand toward the upside is expanding in the derivatives market. The outlet said, "The concentration of call options in the options market shows that the bullish expectations that persisted throughout 2025 are still maintained into early 2026," adding, "In particular, the expansion of positions around $100,000 could act as a factor that increases short-term price volatility."

Bitcoin(BTC) temporarily recovered to $93,000. BTC price, as of 20:01 on the 5th based on the Binance USDT market, is trading at $93,040 (₩135,400,000 based on Upbit exchange), up 1.67%% from the previous day. Meanwhile, according to KraiPrice, the kimchi premium for major virtual assets (cryptocurrencies), including Bitcoin (BTC), is recorded at 0.58%.

The digital asset investment products market experienced a net inflow of 582 million dollars last week, but analysis shows that fund flows still tend to be concentrated in certain assets. According to CoinShares, a crypto asset manager, a total of 582 million dollars flowed into global digital asset investment products last week. There was about 89 million dollars of net outflow in the early part of the week, but buying interest flowed in later in the week, turning it into a weekly net inflow. On a year-to-date basis, net inflows into digital asset investment products in 2025 totaled 47.2 billion dollars. This is close to the 48.7 billion dollars recorded in 2024, and despite year-end volatility, the annual fund inflow size is assessed to remain near historical peaks. By region, the United States led the overall flow with annual net inflows of 47.2 billion dollars. However, this is about a 12% decrease from the previous year. There were clear differences in flows by asset. Bitcoin recorded annual net inflows of 26.9 billion dollars, a 35% decrease compared to last year. It is assessed that buying intensity has weakened in the short term as the price adjustment phase continues. In contrast, Ethereum saw annual inflows of 12.7 billion dollars, an increase of 138% from the previous year. Among altcoins, inflows to XRP and Solana stood out. XRP had annual inflows of 3.7 billion dollars, about a 500% increase from the previous year, and Solana surged to 3.6 billion dollars, about a 1000% increase. By contrast, inflows to other altcoins amounted to only 318 million dollars, a 30% decrease from the previous year. James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, said, "On an annual basis the size of fund inflows remains robust, but the recent flow is closer to a selective rotation into certain assets rather than a broad market rally," adding, "It is still limited to interpret this as a signal of a broad recovery in risk appetite."

Bank of America (BofA) is reported to have allowed its wealth management advisors to propose a Bitcoin (BTC) allocation of up to 4% in client portfolios. On the 5th, according to cryptoasset (cryptocurrency) specialist media BlockBeats, Bank of America, with $1.7 trillion in assets under management, has from that day allowed advisors in its wealth management division to mention Bitcoin and propose allocations within a range of up to 4% of total assets during client consultations. This is not a step to officially approve or actively recommend Bitcoin investment; it sets the range that advisors may offer in response to client requests or during asset allocation discussions. Actual investment decisions and responsibility rest with the client. Earlier, BofA had adjusted internal guidelines since December last year to allow wealth management advisors to include cryptoassets in asset allocation discussions. The outlet said, "This move suggests that mainstream financial institutions' approach to Bitcoin is gradually changing," and "There are forecasts that 2026 could be an important turning point for the cryptoasset market."

The scale of stablecoin transfers processed on the Ethereum (ETH) network reached a record high in the fourth quarter of last year. Analysts interpret this as an expansion in the share of real-use transactions for payments. On the 5th, according to crypto asset media CryptoNews, based on aggregation by on-chain data platform Token Terminal, Ethereum-based stablecoin transfer volume in Q4 2025 was about $8 trillion. This is nearly double the $4 trillion recorded in Q2. The market interprets this increase as an indicator that Ethereum is cementing its position as the core settlement layer for dollar-based digital payments. In fact, over 2025 the issuance of stablecoins on the Ethereum network increased by about 43%. According to Blockworks data, the supply of stablecoins on Ethereum expanded from $127 billion at the start of the year to about $181 billion by year-end. Some market participants note that this growth is linked more to increased demand for actual payments than to short-term arbitrage or speculative fund flows. One on-chain analyst wrote on X (formerly Twitter), "This shows that flows are not speculative but that real global payments are being made on-chain," adding, "institutional connections are still at an early stage." Network activity metrics also support this. Etherscan data show that as of the end of December last year, Ethereum's daily transaction count reached a record 2.23 million transactions. This is about a 48% increase year-on-year. Monthly active addresses rose to 10.4 million in December, and the number of unique daily send/receive addresses also exceeded 1 million. Beyond stablecoins, Ethereum maintains a leading position in the real-world asset (RWA) tokenization space. According to RWA data platforms, Ethereum accounts for about $19 billion of on-chain real-world assets, representing about 65% of the total. Including layer-2s and EVM-compatible networks, the share exceeds 70%. In terms of stablecoin issuance share, Ethereum holds the largest share at about 57%, followed by Tron at around 27%. The largest issuer by total supply is Tether, with circulating stablecoins of about $187 billion, of which more than half are based on the Ethereum network.

The Japanese government appears to be pushing measures to integrate virtual assets (cryptocurrencies) into the traditional financial system centered on stock and commodity exchanges. On the 5th, according to crypto-focused media The Block, Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said in a New Year's speech held at the Tokyo Stock Exchange, "Stock and commodity exchanges play a decisive role in opening public access to digital assets and blockchain-based assets." Katayama referenced examples from the United States and emphasized that exchange-traded products for virtual assets are being used as an inflation hedge. This suggests that similar financial products and institutional links could be possible in Japan. Currently, virtual asset ETFs are not permitted in Japan. He designated 2026 as the 'Year of Digital' and also stated that he will fully support stock and commodity exchanges in building an innovative trading environment using cutting-edge technology. The integration of virtual assets is interpreted to mean that it is not a short-term policy but part of a medium- to long-term overhaul of the financial structure. In addition to digital asset issues, Katayama said this year could be a turning point for resolving Japan's structural economic challenges. The plan is to address the long-term deflation problem through fiscal policy and investments in growth industries. Japanese financial authorities are already accelerating regulatory adjustments. In November of last year, the Financial Services Agency finalized a plan to reclassify 105 major virtual assets, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, as financial products. Through this, it plans to expand the scope of virtual asset use within the existing financial regulatory framework. It is also pushing to reduce the tax rate applied to those virtual assets from the current maximum of 55% to around 20%. Earlier, the Financial Services Agency examined the possibility of allowing banks to hold and trade virtual assets, and it has also approved the yen-linked stablecoin JPYC. The outlet reported, "This move by the Japanese government is interpreted as an extension of a strategy to incorporate virtual assets not as independent speculative assets but as regulated assets combined with traditional finance."

Analysis indicates that Bitcoin (BTC) appears to be showing signs of structural recovery, breaking away from the bearish trend that continued at the end of last December. However, in the short term, whether it can break through major resistance zones is expected to be the turning point for a trend reversal. On the 5th, on-chain and technical analyst Axel Adler Jr. said on his blog, "Market structure indicators are simultaneously shifting from a bearish phase to a bullish phase," and diagnosed that "Bitcoin is moving into a risk-asset preference phase." Adler Jr. explained that his proprietary indicator 'Structure Shift', which combines price position within the channel, moving average trend, and price directionality, has recently moved out of negative territory and entered a strong positive area. The indicator had remained in a negative zone below –0.3 at the end of last December, reflecting bearish pressure, but it rebounded after the 2nd of this month and rose to +0.73 as of the 4th. During the same period, Bitcoin's price also recovered from around $87,500 to about $91,400, which is seen as supporting the structural transition trend. Adler Jr. explained, "Periods in which Structure Shift exceeds +0.5 have often coincided with trend-driven rally phases in the past." Momentum indicators are also showing bullish signals. Recently, Bitcoin momentum has been formed in the 0.85–0.89 range and is analyzed to have rapidly strengthened its rate of increase compared with the three-month average. However, since the price is approaching the upper end of the trading range formed over the past three weeks, the possibility of short-term overheating is also being mentioned. Adler Jr. said, "The current price level is located at the top of the channel, so the possibility of a short-term correction cannot be ruled out," and predicted, "If it breaks through and settles above the resistance around $91,400, the room for further gains could open." He added, "The key is whether the structural indicators can absorb the resistance zone while staying above the zero line," and added, "If the indicator falls back below neutral, this rebound could be limited to a technical bounce."

Bitcoin (BTC) is being suggested to have the possibility of recording its longest consecutive upward trend in three months. With year-end loss-confirming sell-offs having subsided and selling pressure easing, and with geopolitical tensions affecting investor sentiment, this is the assessment. On the 5th, according to cryptocurrency-focused media CoinDesk, Bitcoin rose more than 1% during Asian trading hours that day, increasing the likelihood of a fifth consecutive trading-day gain. This is the longest consecutive rise since early October last year. That day, Bitcoin rose from around $91,480 to around $92,500, and at one point during the session exceeded $93,000. During the same period, major cryptocurrencies such as XRP, Solana (SOL), and Ethereum (ETH) also posted gains in the 0.7~1% range. The CoinDesk 20·80 indices, which reflect the broader market, also rose more than 1%. The market cites the easing of supply-demand burdens as year-end tax-reduction selling was absorbed as the background for the rise. Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, told CoinDesk in a message, "Both Bitcoin and Ethereum are gradually shifting into a bullish phase," adding, "As volumes that were sold to reduce taxes at year-end have been cleared, the mood has shifted back to buying at the start of the year." Geopolitical factors are also supporting prices. After news that the U.S. had detained Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, risk-off sentiment expanded across global financial markets, leading to analysis that cryptocurrencies, along with gold and silver, are being noted as alternative safe havens. Bitget's senior analyst Ryan Li said, "The simultaneous rise across several asset classes after the Venezuela situation is a typical shift toward safe-haven preference." Technically, the short-term trendline is cited as an important variable. Thielen said, "As long as Bitcoin remains above the 21-day exponential moving average, the short-term direction is open to the upside." In fact, inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have recently shown signs of recovery. According to data provider SosoValue, on the 3rd, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $471,000,000 in a single day, the largest since November last year.

Global cryptocurrency exchange Binance is adding new trading pairs to the spot market and expanding its trading bot services. On the 5th, Binance said the exchange will commence trading of three spot trading pairs — AVAX/USD1, BCH/USD1, UNI/USD1 — from 08:00 on the 6th (UTC·Korean time 17:00 on the 6th). From the same time, spot algorithmic orders (trading bot) services will also be provided for those pairs.

The arrest of Nicolás Maduro, the president of Venezuela, is not simply a political or diplomatic matter but an extension of a conflict over global currency dominance, and there are claims that in this process Bitcoin (BTC) can serve as a refuge for both states and individuals. According to crypto asset (cryptocurrency) specialized media Cointribute on the 5th, American investor and author of the bestseller 'Rich Dad, Poor Dad', Robert Kiyosaki, wrote on his social media on the 4th (local time) that "Maduro's arrest is a matter of currency dominance, not oil," and that "the pattern of structurally pressuring countries trying to break away from the dollar system is repeating." Kiyosaki noted that Venezuela, while possessing abundant oil reserves, has in recent years attempted to bypass the dollar-centered payment system. He explained, "Oil is not a simple resource but a key means of sustaining demand for the dominant currency," and "moves to reduce dollar dependence in energy transactions directly lead to geopolitical tensions." He compared this trend to the past case of Iraq. The early 2000s attempt by Iraq to switch oil payments from the dollar to the euro, and the subsequent return of oil trade to the dollar system following the invasion, is an example that shows the significance of currency dominance in the international order. Kiyosaki defined the current geopolitical conflict as a 'clash between systems' rather than a military confrontation. He argued, "Sanctions now extend beyond trade itself to shipping, insurance, and payment infrastructure," and "countries trying to exit the dollar system are more exposed to unconventional pressure." In such an environment, Bitcoin's role is also being reexamined. Kiyosaki said, "Through its decentralized structure, Bitcoin can be a means for individuals and states to defend themselves against central bank policies or political intervention," and "it is increasingly likely to serve as a refuge for entities excluded from the mainstream financial system." He viewed recent trends such as the expansion of BRICS countries, the establishment of alternative payment systems, central banks' increased purchases of gold, and the wider use of national currencies in international trade as being in the same context. He explained that crypto assets, which are not constrained by traditional financial infrastructure, are attracting attention as means of international transactions and asset preservation. Kiyosaki predicted, "The more money becomes politicized, the more citizens and the real economy are the first to suffer," and "in countries with significant economic instability like Argentina or under geopolitical pressure like Venezuela, Bitcoin is becoming an increasingly realistic option." He added, "Maduro's arrest has left a monetary shockwave in the crypto asset market," and "Bitcoin is showing that it is emerging beyond a mere alternative asset into a potential safe-haven asset that functions in an era of financial conflict."

Crypto Now Up to 9,000 dollars due to increased institutional demand Ethereum, the leading altcoin (cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin), could hit an all-time high this year against the backdrop of expanded institutional demand. According to industry sources on the 4th, Tom Lee, chairman of Bitmain, known as the world's largest holder of Ethereum, recently said in an interview with CNBC, "If institutional investors' tokenization of real-world assets and on-chain finance experiments get underway, the price of Ethereum could rise to $7,000–$9,000 early this year." He said, "Ethereum is an infrastructure that can provide efficiency to the traditional financial system and build real use cases," adding, "In the long term, $20,000 is also possible." As of the 29th of last month, Bitmain holds 4,110,525 Ethereum. This corresponds to about 3.41% of the total circulating supply of Ethereum. Bitmain has continued purchasing Ethereum even in the bear phase and aims to secure 5% of the total supply in the long term. Institutions and the financial sector are paying attention to the potential use of Ethereum as financial infrastructure. Cryptocurrency-focused media Cointelegraph reported, "The real-world asset (RWA) tokenization market grew rapidly from about $5.6 billion to $18.9 billion just last year." It added, "Currently, more than $12 billion of tokenized assets are stored on the Ethereum network, which far exceeds major competing blockchains such as Solana." Despite these optimistic forecasts, the price of Ethereum has not shown a clear rebound. On domestic cryptocurrency exchange Upbit, Ethereum has been trading sideways around 4.4 million won recently after falling below the 5 million won level in November last year. Industry insiders say that the large-scale infrastructure update applied to the Ethereum mainnet in early last month, the 'Fusaka(Fusaka)' upgrade, has not had a clear impact on short-term price movements, contrary to its technical improvements. Spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) listed in the United States recorded net outflows of $616.8 million (about 890 billion won) last month. According to the industry, total funds withdrawn from spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs over the past month amounted to $1.7 billion (about 2.4519 trillion won). Kang Min-seung, BloomingBit reporter minriver@bloomingbit.io